Experts are again informing against Russia's attack. Date expired

Zdjęcie: fot. ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AFP POOL/PAP/EPA

If there is simply a ceasefire in Ukraine this year, Russia can rebuild its army and invade another European countries, including NATO countries - the British paper "Times", quoting the think tank study of the global Institute of strategical Studies (IISS). The experts gave a possible date.

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According to IISS experts, Russian leader Vladimir Putin put his country "on the warpath" and may put NATO's commitment to compliance with Article 5which says that the attack on any State of the Alliance is being treated as an attack on the another associate States. London based think tank analysts inform that dictator may attack 1 of the Baltic States in just 2 years.

IISS estimated the amount of defence expenditure, which European leaders would gotta bear in the event that the president of the United States Donald Trump has implemented his threat of withdrawing American NATO support. This cost in 25 years would be about $1 trillion.

Experts foretell that NATO members would gotta acquisition at least 400 fighters and 20 destroyers to be able to counter the Russian attack. In addition, The States of the Alliance should appoint 128 1000 soldiers to replace US troops.

"European allies can no longer presume that the United States will supply the essential military support to defend the continent from Russian aggression" - wrote the authors of the report. It was recalled that just before the NATO summit, which will take place on 24-25 June in The Hague, Trump questioned Washington's readiness to defend allies. He demanded that all NATO members rise defence spending to 5% of GDP.

Experts indicate 2027

The IISS study is based on the presumption that in 2025 there will be a ceasefire ending the war in Ukraine and the withdrawal of US troops from Europe, and Washington will focus on the threat from China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Experts reminded that Putin had allocated 7.5% of GDP to the armed forces this year, which they believe could lead to "a fast reconstruction of the Russian armed forces, which should not be underestimated". The IISS recommends in its study that, given the possible threat, European countries must increase military investment to the "cold war" level - so that defence spending represents on average over 3% of GDP.

At the same time, analysts stressed that European arms companies would have difficulty re-arming NATO Air Force and Navy in the next 10 years because deficiency of adequate industrial potential.

Source: PAP