Last week, at the hands of the president of the State Election Commission, justice Marciniak, he received a certificate of election for the function of president of the Republic of Poland at the Royal Castle Karol Nawrocki. This is another step that brings the candidate supported by the Law and Justice – for this minute the President-elect – closer to swearing, which should be formally held in the first decade of August.
Meanwhile, between what at the Royal Castle and what should have happened in the Sejm before the National Assembly – I mean the oath – we have another stage. According to the laws in force, the ultimate Court must regulation on the validity of the choice made by Poles, that is, to take into account possible protests which flow to the ultimate Court and will be examined by it. This is the consequence of the engagement of the patron Giertych, who questions the result of the election. It's all in the hands of the ultimate Court. We must take into account the fact that Karol Nawrocki's advantage over Rafał Trzaskowski exceeded 350,000 votes. It is hard to imagine that respective or respective twelve errors – as everything points out – in the minutes of the regional electoral commissions, where, among others, the number of votes attributed to Karol Nawrock and Rafał Trzaskowski could offset the difference between candidates or lead to a situation in which Rafał Trzaskowski will gain the advantage.
However, among the current rulers, we have the more average ones, as well as a very extremist part. It was the most extremist 1 who decided to affect almost to the end all available forces and means to torpedo the minute of the authoritative swearing-in of Karol Nawrocki for the president of the Republic. Here's another crucial remark. What is happening around the effort to challenge or undermine the results of the election, is besides closely watched by external factors – due to what we have behind our southeast border. I mean the war in Ukraine. Certainly, any effort to undermine the legality of the elected president or the greater political turmoil is not peculiarly in the hands of the United States, NATO, but it seems that, to a lesser extent, besides Brussels. I would remind you that as 1 of the first with congratulations after being elected to Karol Nawrocki, the head of the European Commission was Ursula von der Leyen, speaking the voice of Berlin, the head of the European Union. This means that, in fact, in Poland we are dealing with a number origin that tries to undermine the sovereign verdict of 1 June. Everything points to the fact that these external forces – I mean the European Union, and above all Washington – will surely not let it. They will not let to effort to destabilize and question what Poles did even a twelve days ago. Everything points to the fact that the date of swearing in will be kept, and talker Simon Holovnia will not effort to question the date of the assembly itself and the form of swearing in.
In addition to what has happened in fresh days in terms of the consequence of the elections of June 1, it is besides worth noting what is happening within the governing camp. I'm referring to a broader expression than the civilian Coalition itself. On the 1 hand, we are dealing with an effort to calm the moods inside the coalition. I mean the cooperation of the civilian Coalition with the 3rd Road and the Left, on the another hand, clear signals showing that the partners of the civilian Coalition, powerfully weakened after the presidential election, would like to re-establish their position a small bit – to be more empowered in this coalition which has ruled Poland since December 2023. Additionally, last week Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared in the course of his exposé that at the minute the ruling centre-left majority would take more vigorous action and that the government would be improved. By "improvement of the government", we realize a situation in which there would surely be a improvement of the departments, and this would affect the merger, perhaps, of any ministries, and thus besides the undercutting of the wings of the coalitions who would gotta say goodbye to any crucial positions in the state. So as we see, we're dealing with a square of a ellipse here, and there's no indication that there's any form of agreement between the main governing party, that is, the civilian Coalition and the partners.
Over the next fewer months we will witness boxing between these 3 parties co-organizing Poland. All of this is compounded by the increasingly visible conflict in the 3rd Road – 1 of the 3 members of the ruling coalition – where we have a situation of clearly questioning the sense of functioning this political formation from the organization pits of the Polish People's Party. The media was informed that the president of PSL, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, had written out a survey among his activists, asking how they relate to the position of further co-regulation within the current centre-left coalition. Would it be an alternate to this solution to enter into a coalition with the right organization – including Law and Justice and the Confederation. Here we learned from the same media that by a vote of about 70 to 30 organization activists indicated that for the time being the Polish People's organization should stay within what emerged after the October 2023 election. I would just like to point out that the Polish People's organization is the biggest organization in Poland – in the sense of a associate base – and only 4,000 people took part in this survey. This is simply a tiny percent of all those who have the legitimacy of members of the Polish People's Party, and to the end these results cannot be regarded as something typical of the organization act. However, the incoming signals clearly show that there is expanding impatience in the PL2050 Holownia coalition itself. On the another hand, more and more attention is being paid to whether the Polish People's organization should, however, consider any change in the expression in terms of functioning and searching for a fresh parliamentary majority.
Not less, it's not more fun erstwhile it comes to the Left. The fresh Left of Czarzasty and Biedrony is in large trouble, and just below the threshold is now Zandberg's Together. In fact, if we look at the latest polls, the 3rd Way quotes surely do not inspire the leaders of this formation.
That is, in another words, we have not yet reached the half-meter of the current term, and we already see that if elections were held today, a solid majority would have the current opposition. Of course, a separate problem remains whether Polish Law and Justice could establish a coalition with the Confederation within the alleged Polish Coalition of Affairs, possibly even with the Polish People's Party. For now, this option seems unlikely.
However, in Polish politics in the coming weeks, months, there will surely be a lot going on. Since I was talking about problems inside the coalition, there is no way to say that more and more signals show that there is simply a fierce duel or an effort to undermine Donald Tusk's position and a fierce duel – in the close future – about who could replace Donald Tusk as head of the Civic Platform or Prime Minister of the government.
The name of the abroad minister Radosław Sikorski appears here. He seems to be Donald Tusk's most likely successor if he could not keep the helm of power in his hands until late autumn that year. The possible of a re-vote on the vote of assurance seems rather realistic and we may be witnessing an effort to replace the Prime Minister. Well, the asset that's down there is much better sense of social pulse, temper pulse, and it knows that it's not as good as TVN24 says, writes “Gazeta Wyborcza” or reports Radio Tok FM. In another words, for many activists of the Platform, the Civic Coalition, this is the phase where they begin to ask themselves whether with Donald Tuski the Civic Platform, more broadly – the Civic Coalition, and even more broadly – the full centre-left block, will be able to win the elections in 2027.
