Choices for the chosen? Romania at the end of the presidential campaign

On 4 May, the first circular of presidential elections will be held in Romania, in which residents will effort to appoint a head of state for the second time in the last six months. These organised at the end of 2024 ended in a scandal and on 6 December – just 2 days before the second circular – were annulled by a very controversial and contested both in the country and beyond its borders of the Constitutional Court ruling. He considered, among another things, that Călin Georgescu – highly nationalist and known for his pro-Russian statements the winner of the first circular – violated the rule of equal opportunities for candidates, manipulating algorithms in social media. A akin argument was put forward on 9 March by the Central Election Office (CBW), which refused to re-record this policy in the repeated presidential election.

Of the 11 registered candidates, the clear leader (according to the polls may gain about 30% of the vote) is George Simion – supported by Georgescu by the radical, national-conservative Union of Romanian Unity (AUR). In the second round, he will most likely face 1 of the 2 rivals – representing the governing coalition of Crin Antonescu or the independent mayor of Bucharest Nicuşor Dan (both enjoying any 20% support). The erstwhile Prime Minister Victor Ponta has a much little chance of entering the second round, which can number on 10–20% of the vote. Although the final result of the elections will not importantly affect Romania's abroad policy, it can deepen the crisis in which the ruling elite has been in for years.

Re-election in the shadow of controversy...

The May presidential elections will be held in the shadow of 1 of the largest political and constitutional crisis in the post-communist past of Romania, which began at the turn of November and December, with the amazing election success of Georgesc. This mostly unknown far-right politician, whose polls gave about 5% of the vote a week before the first circular of elections, managed to gain as much as 23% of the vote. Both the authorities and its political opponents began to look rather rapidly into this accomplishment of manipulation or external interference (mainly from the Kremlin).

The hypothesis of Russian support for politics reinforced the declassified before the second circular of elections (4 December) at the request of president Klaus Iohannis Romanian service reports, indicating that election success was due to a complex, large-scale run on social media (mainly on TikTok). According to the services, its momentum suggested that it was attended by an unnamed "state actor", and that the algorithm manipulation techniques utilized for the run would match those utilized by Russia towards Ukraine^[1].

Two days after the publication of these documents, the Constitutional Court (SK), which had previously recognised the result of the first circular of voting, decided – based, among another things, on declassified reports – to nullify the full election and order its re-booking. The judges felt that Georgescu had been manipulated by the usage of "untransparent and violating electoral ordination of digital technologies and artificial intelligence in campaigning", thus violating the rule of equal opportunities for candidates seeking the position of head of state^[2]. They besides drew attention to an untransparent way of financing the campaign, a policy that itself claimed did not allocate any resources to it^[3].

The annulment of elections was met in the country with rather widespread criticism, and by many commentators and opposition politicians was considered a politically motivated effort to destruct the candidate "outside the system" by the ruling mainstream (a coalition of the centre-left Social Democratic organization – PSD – and the centre-right National-Liberal organization – PNL). Public opinion was dominated by the misunderstanding of SK's decision. At the end of December, nearly 2 thirds of Romanians thought it was wrong^[4].

Criticism against the Romanian authorities besides flowed from outside the country. On 14 February at the Munich safety Conference, U.S. Vice president J.D. Vance openly commented on the cancellation of the elections in Romania, claiming that this step was taken "based on the frail suspicions of intelligence services". American politician besides misjudged the state of democracy there, pointing out that it was most likely "not besides strong" if Russia could "destroy it with just a fewer 100 1000 dollars spent on advertising" on social media^[5]. A small earlier (January 27) the Venice Commission besides criticised the SK ruling^[6]. She stated in her study that akin decisions cannot be based solely on classified intelligence, as this does not warrant the essential transparency.

...and no leading candidate.

In the months following SK's ruling, doubts arose as to the appropriateness of the annulment of the electoral process. Since the end of 2024, the campaign's manipulation investigation has provided evidence of Georgesc's ties to national far-right environments and to a controversial group of mercenaries led by Horațiu Potry (the protector of this policy), but despite his strenuous efforts, the Romanian State was incapable to reliably show the ties of this presidential candidate to the Kremlin or the fact that its run was financed by Russian entities. This strengthened his image of anti-system policy and made him persecuted by the establishment of the "marrior". As a result, Georgesc's popularity nearly doubled – from 23% in November 2024 to 40–45% in January and February this year.^[7]

Notable advanced political support did not intend to quit re-election. As stated by his staff, he was already on 26 February to apply for registration of his candidacy at the CBW, but on the same day he was detained by the police and brought to the prosecution. This officially set him a number of charges, headed by an anti-Constitutional conspiracy and belonging to an anti-Semitic organization^[8]. Although Georgesc was not arrested, he was banned from leaving the country and the right to social media activity was restricted.

Eventually, the politician reported his candidacy a fewer days later, but the CBW rejected it^[9]. However, the reasons for the decision mention not to the prosecution's allegations or accusations of association with Russia, but to the ruling of SK issued on 6 December. It was considered that a individual who (like Georgescu) does not respect the rule of equal opportunities in presidential elections, does not respect democratic principles and does not respect the constitution, which the head of state (and, by default, besides a candidate) requires a basic law^[10].

Georgesc the Anointed

According to public opinion polls, a large part of the electorate removed from Georgesc's election managed to take over Simion, presently with about 30% of support. In the first circular of the 2024 vote, he finished 4th – he won little than 14% of the vote (below the polling 20%) – and after Georgesc's success almost immediately declared full support for this policy. erstwhile it became clear that the elections would be repeated, the AUR leader stated that he did not intend to participate as he did not want to compete with an ideologically close candidate who enjoyed advanced public support.

At the same time, AUR – claiming that the annulment of the elections was de facto a form of coup – began organizing regular support actions for Georgesc under the heading "Restore the second round". This treatment seems to have come not so much from Simion's perfect beliefs, but primarily from political calculation. In this way, the leader of the group (also referring to anti-establishment rhetoric) placed himself as a defender of the interests of Romanian voters, who were "taken distant the right to vote" and at the same time could present himself as a selfless, powerless politician. In fact, he expected most likely that the CBW would not let Georgesc to run, and that in specified a situation he would be able to take over part of the electorate of this policy as a “decretor” of its narrative. To further strengthen this image, Simion – after his rival was pulled distant from the election – stated that he was not going to apply for the presidential position at all. However, he changed his head after talking to Georgesc, a kind of political “anointing”^[11].

Who's Simion?

The AUR leader, and at the same time the favourite of the May presidential election, are politicians with clearly nationalistic views. It has been present in the national public space since the second decade of the 21st century. In 2011, he created the Acțiunea 2012 platform (Action 2012) – an association of more than 30 organisations of socio-political movement calling for the unification of the neighboring Republic of Moldova with Romania. In 2019, he established the AUR and introduced the organization to parliament in 2020 (she gained 9% of support). 4 years later, the group doubled its representation in it, scoring over 18% of the vote. Simion, erstwhile a Eurosceptic or anti-EU policy, present advocates remaining within the EU's structures, stressing that he is fighting for Romania to take its "due place"^[12].

Since January 2025, he has besides held the position of Vice-President of 1 of the leading forces in the European Parliament – the organization of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). The Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, among others, considers his political model, and the Italian Brothers group sees him as a ‘political model’ for his group^[13]. Simion is definitely pronata and pro-American, and does not hide sympathy for Donald Trump's camp. He is besides happy to mention to the critically judgmental decision to cancel the election as words from Washington (including statements by Vance or Elon Musk).

Mainstream media and Romanian establishment have been consistently accusing AUR leader of ties to the Kremlin for years. Among another things, this is why he is considered a persona non grata in both Ukraine and Moldova. These allegations have not yet been reliably proven. Although at the rhetorical level Simion remains reluctant to Russia, seeing the threat to Romania's safety in this country, like a large part of citizens, it refers to Ukraine with a distance and Bucharest's support of it. In addition to pro-Russianism, politicians are besides accused of sympathy for the Iron defender and Legion of Michael Archangel – Romanian fascist and anti-Semitic organizations from the interwar period and planet War II.^[14].

Other key candidates

The main counter-candidates of Simion are Crin Antonescu (representing the ruling coalition of PSD, PNL and the Hungarian number organization – UDMR) and independent – though supported by the Romanian Salvation Union (USR) and its erstwhile mayor – Bucharest Nicuşor Dan.

Antonescu, who, according to available polls, can number on about 20–25% of the votes, as a joint candidate, selected the ruling coalition shortly after the cancellation of the 2024 election. These groups decided to exhibit 1 alternatively than 3 representatives (as in November last year) in consequence to the rapidly increasing popularity of Georgesc and, more broadly, anti-system movements. The establishment parties felt that only by joining forces would they have a chance to fill the president's seat. However, due to the rivalry between the top PNL and PSD politicians of the coalition, he could not represent any of the current leaders or prominent members of these groups. For this reason, it was decided on Antonescu – erstwhile a reasonably recognizable politician who had not been active publically in the state's life for 10 years. His career peaked at the turn of the first and second decades of the 21st century. In 2009, he took the position of president of the PNL and then took part in the presidential elections in which he won 3rd place (with 20% support). In 2011, he belonged to the founders of the Social Liberal Union (USL) – a political bloc in which he led the PNL for the next 3 years allied with the post-communist PSD and made an unsuccessful effort to dismiss centre-right president Traian Băsescu.

As a result, Antonescu is the actual symbol of the alliance of the 2 major and ruling presently The Romanian party, which, on the 1 hand, makes him a typical of the coalition, and on the another hand, represents a serious image burden for him. The Romanian electorate is clearly tired of ruling forces since the 1990s. The re-establishment of the coalition (this was created in 2021 and continued after last year's elections) was treated not only as a manifestation of the further strengthening of the old elite, but also, by many supporters of these groups, as a betrayal (with the exception of 2011–2013 PSD and PNL remained major rivals). This in turn pushed any voters towards parties and extremist and utmost candidates, giving hope for change in the ruling establishment.

Dan, who can number on about 20% of the vote, has been acting as mayor of the capital since 2020 (in Ub.r., he was re-elected). The state's public life has been present since 2006, erstwhile it established the Saving Bucharest Association – 1 of the first Romanian urban movements to postulate, among others, the preservation of the city's architectural heritage and combating corruption at the level of local authorities. In 2015, on the basis of this movement, he established the political platform of the Bucharest Salvation Union, which was shortly later converted into a national political organization – USR.

Dan in his communicative consistently calls for the exchange or alternatively the renewal of the elites ruling the country. It calls for transparency, combating corruption, protecting civilian rights and strengthening the regulation of law. It is clearly pro-European and pro-Western. It distances itself from conventional ideological divisions, avoiding declaring to belong to a conservative or progressive camp. Debate on USR's relation to abortion in 2017 (Dan advocated maintaining world-view neutrality while any activists presented a liberal approach) prompted him to leave the party's ranks^[15]. As a result, it can be classified into an anti-establishment camp, like Simion, but it is simply a politician much more average than the leader of the AUR and unequivocally in favour of deepening European integration.

While Dan remains an independent candidate, he is supported by respective tiny groups, headed by the Renew organization of the European task of Romania (REPER), composed mostly of erstwhile USR members and headed by erstwhile Prime Minister Dacian Cioloș, and the People's Movement organization (PMP), associated with erstwhile president Băsescu. In April, support for Dan was besides declared by USR management, even though so far the authoritative candidate of the group was its leader – Elena Lasconi^[16]. This will was due to a extremist decline in its popularity in fresh months. Although Lasconi ranked second in the first circular of the 2024 annulled elections and obtained 19% of the vote, the April polls indicate that she can now anticipate a maximum of 8%^[17].

The last of the most crucial candidates was Victor Ponta – erstwhile Romanian Prime Minister and long-term PSD leader – who, according to the polls, could anticipate 10–20% of support. It tries to exploit the increasing wave of aversion to the political class and conservative tendencies in society. Although derived from the establishment, he consistently tries to present as an anti-system candidate, proclaiming views akin to those of Trump. Ponta frequently emphasizes its good contacts with representatives of the MAGA movement ("Make America large Again") and regularly participates in their events.

Forecast

There is no uncertainty that the presidential elections will not be decided until the second round. It is almost certain that there will be Simion in it, who, in addition to the expected 30 percent national support, will be able to number on a large part of the Romanian diaspora vote^[18]. In the first circular of the cancelled elections, as many as 16% of all the votes cast on Georgesc (who politically “anointed” Simion) came from abroad. AUR leader's rival will most likely be Antonescu or Dan. Ponty's chances of entering the second circular seem tiny – especially in the context of controversial statements that fell from his mouth during the last period of the campaign. On 9 April, he stated, among another things, that during the flood in 2014, erstwhile he served as Prime Minister, he gave orders to flood respective Romanian villages in order to defend Belgrade in this way, and as a reward, he was to gain Serbian citizenship.^[19].

In the context of the expected second round, the key challenge for Simion's rivals will be to mobilise a wider electorate. With extended local structures, the ruling parties supporting Antonescu have a clear advantage over Dan. At the same time, however, a duel with a typical of the coalition seems to be the most favorable script for the leader of the AUR, as it will enable him to mention to the anti-establishment communicative and to play an aversion to the authorities, blamed for the annulment of the 2024 elections. At the same time, Dan will have a serious problem encouraging Antonescu supporters. A large number of voters traditionally supporting PSD candidates (especially those from agrarian and mediocre regions) have conservative and frequently nationalist views, and will so not be inclined to support the mayor of the capital, seen as a liberal and typical of the intelligent urban communities.

Regardless of the final result of the May election, the events of the last six months will have far-reaching and systemic consequences for the Romanian political scene. The annulment of the presidential elections, and then the reassignment of Georgesc from them, while being incapable to effectively justify these moves, will contribute to reducing – and not so advanced – assurance in the existing authorities and institutions of the state. These (with the Constitutional Court at the head) are accused not only of politicizing and acting in the interests of the ruling parties, but besides of inefficiency and incompetence. Even Georgesc's opponents, who consider it right to repeat the elections and take distant the passive electoral law from him, frequently charge the apparatus of the state - and, above all, the peculiar services - with work for allowing itself into the political and constitutional crisis and as accompanying chaos. All this exacerbates the increasing fatigue and aversion of society to the ruling establishment for years, and in the close word it can lead to his being removed from power.

Chart. Survey support for leading candidates in the Romanian presidential election (4 May 2025)

Source: Average survey results conducted between 3 and 17 April by 7 public opinion poll centres in Romania.