Thilo Sarrazin is simply a German economist and politician born in 1945 in Gera. He studied economics in Bonn, worked in public administration, including the Ministry of Finance and the global Monetary Fund. From 2002 to 2008, he was a Berlin Finance Senator and then served on the Bundesbank board.
His political career ended violently after the publication of the book “Germany commits suicide” which sold itself in millions of copies and sparked a nationwide debate. Since then, Sarrazin has been considered 1 of the most fierce critics of German migration policy. In subsequent books he addressed topics of Islam, demography and culture. In an interview with Czech weekly Echo, on the occasion of his 80th birthday, he summed up his observations to date, stating that the situation of Germany was "yet worse than expected".
One of the main themes of this interview is demography. Sarrazin claims that his earlier predictions were besides optimistic. It indicates that Germany's national structure is changing faster than it predicted respective years ago:
“By the year 2070, or 45 years from now, 80 percent of the births will be German. And most of the births will come from Muslim families," says Sarrazin.
Sarrazin states that already half of the newborns in Germany are born in families with alleged migration backgrounds. In his eyes this means a dramatic acceleration of the process of population exchange:
"Just 15 years ago, I said that in 3 to 4 generations the number of Germans would fall from 80 to 20 million, while the number of Muslims would emergence from 4 to 35 million. Now I see that this process is going faster.”
Sarrazin compares data from years ago with current immigration figures. He stresses that between 2008 and 2009 he estimated yearly immigration to be around 100,000 people. Meanwhile, for the last 10 years, since the migration crisis, the average was 500 000 people per year:
"Then I estimated an yearly immigration of about 100,000 people. Meanwhile, for the last 10 years, since the migration crisis, the average has been 500 000 people per year."
According to Sarrazin, the largest part of this figure is those outside Europe:
"Out of these 5 100 1000 a year, about 3 100 1000 come from Muslim countries specified as Syria, Afghanistan or Iraq."
It is in his opinion that it fundamentally changes the social structure of Germany and deepens the problems it has described before.
Sarrazin is not limited to numbers related to demography. It besides highlights the decline in average educational outcomes in German schools. In his opinion, this is the direct effect of expanding the number of students from families with lower educational competences:
"I was forecasting a negative trend. As the share of the lower-result group increases, the overall average falls. This is simple mathematics.”
Sarrazin besides points to additional factors specified as the influence of social media, but he believes that the differences between groups stay sustainable and cannot be completely offset by educational reforms.
Another subject that Sarrazin raises is the issue of security. In his opinion, the problem is not a single case, but the scale of the phenomenon:
"Look: erstwhile a group rape occurs, at best it gets to local news. erstwhile 2 men quarrel at the asylum center and 1 pulls out a knife, they besides only inform local media.”
According to Sarrazin, this selection of information makes the general public unaware of the real scale of the problem. In his opinion, it is the informed action of the media that they are trying to avoid topics that could origin social tensions.
Sarrazin stresses that many of the topics he raised respective years ago are now dominant in the public debate:
“Looking in retrospect, you can see in me something like a modern prophet, a man who spoke of things that became the main subject of the election run after years.”
He stresses that he was not guided by ideology, but by a cool analysis of data and demographic trends.
One of the strongest fragments of the interview is Sarrazin's message about his concerns about Germany's future:
“I would like my great-grandsons to be able to live in Germany in a 100 years, where everyday rhythm will not find the singing of muezzin.”
In this 1 sentence, Sarrazin summarizes his fear of Germany losing its cultural character and becoming a country dominated by abroad traditions and religions. It warns against the fact that Germany can become a country completely different than it was a fewer decades ago.
