Do we have a fresh president yet?
Sergius the Third: I am very careful commenting on exit poll results. To be honest, I was amazed by the enthusiasm of Rafał Trzaskowski. His chances are much greater than Karol Nawrocki, but let us remember – exit poll may be wrong. The ball is inactive here.
In the game.
It is for razor blades: the difference in exit poll is 0.6 percent points, over 120 1000 votes.
Let us remember that we are talking about a survey in which the measurement mistake is 2 percent, which is why I would not be so happy on the place of Trzaskovsky's staff. Although, of course, they have more reason to celebrate than Navrock's staff.
They all declared victory. Trzaskowski: "We won, for razor blades". Nawrocki: "We will win, tonight we will win and save Poland".
Mina Kaczyński said he expected a better result.
But Jarosław Kaczyński besides said, "The night ahead of us, we will win this election."
Regardless of who wins the election, we are very divided. You can see that polarization leads to this magical division of 50 by 50. Both Trzaskowski and Nawrocki said that they wanted to be "the president of all Poles".
Let us remember that despite many burdens on Karol Nawrocki, the exit poll score is for razor blades. This means that the Citizens' Coalition can lose parliamentary elections in 2 years. If Trzaskowski becomes president, there will be no argument: "PiS or president block". There will be a very large responsibility. It will not be possible to blame the Law and Justice – regardless of whether they are guilty.
What else can change the voting schedule?
It is very interesting how the abroad vote voted: in what proportion were the voices of Europe in which the United States. It may turn out that it is abroad that will decide the result of the election.
In favour of which candidate?
I haven't done any analysis, but my intuition tells me it would be Rafał Trzaskowski.
These studies besides indicate that the electorate of Trzaskowski was more mobilized.
Turns out Trzaskowski has mobilized and encouraged more non-voters
in the first circular (55.5 percent; Nawrocki – 45.5%).
As regards the transfer of candidates, this analysis does not include those who received 2%. In this situation, I think it would definitely be Karol Nawrocki.
I keep wondering if the summertime poll...
... won't show that the president will be Charles Nawrocki?
I give him a lower chance – around 20 percent. But I wouldn't regulation out the script that Nawrocki might inactive be president. Whether he wins or loses, his position is very high.
What destiny awaits Nawrocki if he does not become president?
Nawrocki has a feature that helps in politics – he is very determined. possibly even more than Morawiecki. And his determination was seen in this run more than
Trzaskowski.
So he'd be a good PiS officer? Would he build his own back room?
It will be hard to build its own facilities, due to the fact that he is an outsider in the PiS. In my opinion, he learned a lot, he's fast-moving, he's plastic.
To form like plasticine.
If he didn't look good at first, he's been doing well lately. People with determination can learn things very quickly. If we add – what his opponents say – ruthlessness, then Nawrocks can find themselves in politics better than it would seem. He won't get out of the shadows.
What could harm Nawrock at his last simple campaign? Dreams, participation
Sutner?
I think it's definitely the Onetu materials that have been released in fresh days of the run that may have harmed Nawrock. Even if this did not origin transfers to Trzaskowski, it could influence, for example, the giving of an invalid vote.
It may besides be that Trzaskowski will win, but a tiny advantage of the vote. And that's a informing signal for them too.
Will Trzaskowski manage to glue Poland together if he wins by a hair?
The divisions are very deep. Despite these various accusations against Nawrocki, his support is simply a informing signal to the Tusk government.
I think Tusk will want to bring his coalitions to order – diplomaticly speaking. So he will most likely effort to reconstruct the government.
How will Trzaskovsky's win affect subsequent parliamentary elections?
This will not be an easy election for the civilian Coalition. It may happen that the coalition will be changed in 2 years.
If Nawrocki had become president, he'd most likely be blocking everything. And that would be "war." If the president is Trzaskowski, we'll have comparative peace for 2 years. But if KO does not usage this time to convince Poles, then there will be "war" again. We're entering a turbulent process. I'm not optimistic about burying ditches.
Rafał Trzaskowski always said he would not be a Tusk pen. He assured that from his place he would sign the laws blocked by Duda, specified as the liberalisation of abortion. Is it going to be independent?
That's a very interesting question. Remember, Donald Tusk is an experienced politician. He can play and subdue people. We saw him come back from Brussels and take over the party.
If Trzaskowski submits to Tusk, he exposes himself to criticism. If he goes into conflict with him, there will besides be tensions and interior games.
Following politics for many years, I believe parties do not lose elections
due to competition, but interior problems. These tensions will surely affect the condition of these formations.
From the point of view of the KO, what they will do during these next 2 years is crucial. due to the fact that if Trzaskowski is president, there will be no excuses. People anticipate perp. And during the 2 years of government, KO was limited.
Even in the event of a win by Trzaskowski, a very hard time is being prepared for the civilian Coalition.
