Vladimir Putin expects the Ukrainian army to leave Donbas. This is 1 of the demands that the Russian leader makes conditional on stopping war and talking about peace. The Kremlin's dictator is determined to be strong, and he seems to talk from the position of strength, with a powerful empire and his army behind him. In the meantime, this post demonstrates the weakness of invaders, due to the fact that the Russian army has been struggling with gaining Donbas for many years...
In January 2015, I visited a infirmary in the town of Selydowe located in the Donetsk Oblast. The facility was designated to safe medical troops on the front; hence my visit. The fighting was 20 km behind the hornets, like the tremor of infirmary windows. In the distance, artillery beat, its murmur was another sinister proof of the imminent threat. "They are so close...", I thought, meanwhile, it took the pro-Russian separatists to overcome this distance, and later already the Russians themselves, over 9 years – the sellaceous fell last October, in the 3rd year of full-scale war.
During the same trip, I first visited Slavic and Kramatorsk, a 4th million agglomeration located north of Donetsk. A writer from 1 of the Kiev editorial offices directed me to travel to these places, stressing that these were the 2 largest city centres liberated by the Ukrainian army in 2014, which was then a bitter pill for Moscow. Bitter adequate that erstwhile in the spring of 2022, already in the realities of a full-scale invasion, the conflict of Donbas began, the Russians threw considerable force on the Slavic-Kramatory section. “We hear canonade, but we inactive hope our boys will halt the Orcs,” a friend from Slavia wrote to me in June 2022. To this day, the Russians have trodden 20 miles on their way to the agglomeration, inactive without a chance of its immediate occupation.
Expensive front to close
By February 2022 the aggressors controlled 1 3rd of the Donetsk and Luhansk circuits. They presently have the full Lugansk region and 3 quarters of the Donetsk (20 of 26.5 1000 km2 circuit). So in their hands is the majority of Donbas, which creates appearances of solid success until we realize that his work took respective years.
This is the case with all Russian conquests in Ukraine. In 2014 and 2015, Moscow took over by force 44 1000 km2 of Ukrainian territory (a bit more than 7 percent of the total), in 2022 it added another 65,000, the second "profit" due to the offensive conducted under conditions of gigantic method and material advantage. In the second, 3rd and 4th years of full-scale war – even though the Russian contingent increased 3.5 times (from 180 to 700 1000 soldiers) – the full Russian territorial gains did not exceed 6,000 km2. Since the end of the series of Ukrainian counterattacks in November 2022, erstwhile the war took a positional form, until now, the Russians conquered barely 0.97% of Ukrainian territory. So, yes, after 11 years of treatment they stole almost 1 5th of the land from Ukraine, but with the exception of 2 effective springs – from 2014 and 2022 – they stand or crawl, bearing tremendous costs. Suffice to remind you that more than 1 million Russian soldiers have been killed or injured so far, and Moscow has lost tens of thousands of units of equipment.
An crucial part of these losses falls on Donbas, as the Kherson Front froze in the winter of 2022 and the Zaporosian Front in the autumn of 2023. The struggles are inactive taking place on the outskirts of the Kharkiv region, and late besides the Sumsian region (and besides along the way we had the Ukrainian escapade in the Kursk region in Russia), but there will be no denying the message that Ukraine and the Federation clash primarily in Donbasa. In this context, it becomes clear why Putin would like to close this front as shortly as possible.
Donbas as a crash zone
Why are Ukrainians fighting so hard in this part of the country? There are at least a fewer explanations – from local patriotism of local defenders to economical issues related to the value of Donbaskie mineral deposits. However, the essence of things seems to be circumstantial war pragmatism. “We must fight them here, or else they will come to our home again”, these are the words of my friend from Kiev, a dead ZSU soldier who fought – and died – in Donbas, who he did not like. Donbas, who for many Ukrainians from the western and central parts of the country is “the end of the world”. "Black d...", which refers to both the mines and the prospects of life in the region long before the war demolished economically, ecologically and socially. And yet inactive the subject of fierce defense. The motivation behind this has a face, as in the above sentence. "We have chosen the most abandoned cottage on the edge of the settlement and there we fight with bullies from the another district", so it could be translated into the reality of "courtyard". Remaining on the ground of this analogy – it doesn't substance that they occupied another area of 1 of the apartments. It is crucial that the block's struggles do not come out strong, short and ready to jump to the next building.
Donbas's thought as a crushing region resulted in extended engineering projects. Kordon, who was initially expected to halt separatists and comparatively fewer supporting their Russians, took the form of a profoundly thrown fortification system. It included trenches, bunkers, reflection points, minefields and anti-tank dams. The fortification belt extends about 50 kilometres in length, covering key cities specified as Slavic, Kramatorsk, Druzzkiwka and Kostiantiniwka. At the same time, these towns are crucial logistics hubs for Ukrainian armed forces operating in the east of the country. Importantly, the fortification system, nevertheless it contains artificial defensive elements, uses natural obstacles above all. Hills, rivers, canals, wetlands, forest areas; anything that restricts enemy troops' freedom of movement. Of course, however, in the Ukrainian context it is worth emphasizing, due to the fact that it is not only that Ukraine has invested tremendous resources in building this strategy for the last 11 years – and now there is no money and no time. The thing is, another belt of fortifications wouldn't be anywhere to build.
Trump's Opinion by Putin
If the Ukrainian army had voluntarily left Donetsk, another line of defence could have been created 80 km deeper, counting from the presently occupied positions. And it would not be as convenient as the ‘fortress of Donbas’. Simplifying matters – behind Donbas, looking west, the Ukrainian steppes begin. An open area where opposition points are more hard to locate. So that purely motorically his defeat would not origin so many difficulties for the Russians. And no, it is impossible to "move your hand into empty fields" due to the fact that invaders would gain space to hit north, towards Kharkiv, and south, towards Zaporozh. In addition to the threat to the city of Dniepr, the Russians would be in danger of spilling into Ukrainian operating space in the east.
But the Russian army, even if it did not gotta break through the Donbaski belt of fortifications, would not be able to carry out specified large operations as the march on Kharkivs or Zaporozhye – individual would notice. Not today, but the Donbas game is not just about “here and now”. Ukrainians – authorities and average people of the country – do not trust Moscow's assurances that this would halt at Donbas. That it would not scope for the neighbouring region of Djepropetrovsk, due to the fact that it would defy the temptation of taking the full Zadnieprz. In Kiev, they know well that even if there is simply a frost of war, there will be no talk of permanent freezing of Russian imperial ambitions. possibly not present or tomorrow, but the day after tomorrow, Russia will play again for a fuller or fuller stake. So you shouldn't make it any easier. You can't give anything distant for free.
Russians will take Donbas anyway – it is not only Russian propaganda that convinces; lately, specified voices are popular in the US, for example, in the environments supporting Donald Trump. The American president himself thinks so. It is without a uncertainty the credit of Putin, who persuaded the United States leader to this opinion, hoping that Washington would persuade the Kiev concessions. So it's impossible to regulation out a script where both the invaders and the Donnets get caught. Only that it could take the Russians another year of conflict to accomplish specified success, which will translate into hundreds of thousands more victims. possibly on the way, they will yet come to their senses, and if not, they will gotta spend even more time licking wounds afterwards. That's how they calculate in Kiev, which besides Putin's proposals, and American suggestions openly mock. Donbas will stay Ukrainian as long as he is anything to defend him...
