Written by Dmitri Trenin, prof. of economical sciences at the University of Economics and a major academic at the Institute of planet Economy and global Relations.He is besides a associate of the Russian Council for global Affairs (RIAC).
There have already been six telephone calls with the President, respective rounds of talks between abroad ministers and national safety advisers, and regular contacts have been held at another levels.The most apparent affirmative consequence is the restoration of dialog between Russia and the United States – a process that was interrupted in Biden's reign.
Keyly, this animated dialog goes beyond Ukraine.
A number of possible areas of cooperation have been outlined, ranging from geopolitical stableness to transport and sport.
They may not be of immediate strategical importance, but they form the basis for future engagement.
Under Trump, dialog will not be broken again – although its speech and pace may change.The consequence of this diplomacy was to resume talks with the Ukrainian side in Istanbul.
Although these negotiations are presently of small political importance – and fresh prisoner exchanges have taken place independently of them – they confirm the fundamental rule of Russian diplomacy:
We are ready for a political solution to the conflict.Nevertheless, these are method and tactical achievements.
Strategic reality remains unchanged.It was never realistic to anticipate Trump to offer Russia an agreement on Ukraine that would meet our safety requirements.
Russia would besides not accept 1 that would endanger its long-term safety interests.
Similarly, any thought that Trump would "dease" Ukraine to the Kremlin will join Moscow in weakening the EU or press for a fresh Yalta agreement with Russia and China has always been a fantasy.So the card turned around.
What's next?Trump will almost surely sign the fresh US Sanctions Act – but will effort to hold the freedom to apply them.
Sanctions will increase tensions in planet trade, but will not destruct Russia's policies.On the military front, Trump will supply the remaining aid packages approved by Biden and may complement them with modest own contributions.
In the future, however, Western Europe, especially Germany, will supply Ukraine, frequently buying and re-exporting American production systems.Meanwhile, the United States will proceed to supply Kiev with intelligence from the battlefield – peculiarly to carry out deep attacks in Russia.None of this suggests that the conflict will end in 2025.
Nor will it end with the final end of the war in Ukraine.This is due to the fact that the conflict is not fundamentally about Ukraine.We are witnessing an indirect war between the West and Russia – part of a much wider global confrontation.
The West struggles to keep its dominance.And Russia, defending itself, demands the sovereign right to be on its own terms.This war will be long.
And the United States – with or without Trump – will stay our opponent.
Its consequence will form not only the destiny of Ukraine, but besides the future of Russia itself.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/news/621262-dmitry-trenin-long-war/
