We have volts, yet correct. The government – with the mouth of Prime Minister Tusk – announced taking care of Polish interests, just as another countries care about their interests (the capital has national flags).
To advance Polish private and state companies in Poland and internationally, renationalization where it concerns strategical national and state interests. Previously, he actively continued the expansion and modernization of the Polish army and the protection of borders initiated by PiS.
National goals mention to the strategical thought of Marshal Józef Piłsudski, who stated in the 1930s that Poland – located between 2 planet powers, Germany and Russia – must make its power to survive. There wasn't adequate time in the 20th interwar years.
These 2 neighbouring powers on 17 September 1939 liquidated the Polish state, following akin conditions as the partition powers in the 18th century. The Germans wanted territorial conquests to grow the Lebensraum (an area to live a German). In turn Russia wanted to annihilate Poland, which – despite deliberate weakening, corrupting, diversion and creating chaos – continued to exert a powerful influence (as we would say today) on the East. Poland was a state of noble democracy, spiritual tolerance and individual freedom, and all neighbouring states evolved in the absolute monarchy, in – as we would call it present – dictatorships. The Polish social strategy was unacceptable to them, and besides undermining their systems of governance by the influence of Polish soft force.
The soft strength of Poland is evidenced by the fact that there was a Polish language, in Vilnius, Minsk, Kiev and Odessa, and in the 17th century besides in Moscow. Today, Polish soft force besides affects the societies of countries in the East, of which we do not realise all day. Polish example of success after regaining sovereignty and accession to the European Union acts as a magnet and prompts Ukrainian society to fight to join the West. In Belarus, it sparked a social revolt after the falsified elections in 2022. The pacification of the rebellion and the imposition of "rusco mira" by Moscow did not change the situation. Most Belarusians want a Western option.
Finally, the Polish government, like Piłsudski, saw the risks arising from the strategical position of our country and announced that Poland must be the most powerful military and economical state in the region and return to its powerful external influence with soft force (the prime minister Tusk's message). After all, we are a associate of the European Union and NATO, which has so far given us a sense of safety and security. What, then, happened that we gotta look at the current safety paradigms?
Global geopolitical game
With the start of president Trump's second term, a real power arrangement between the major planet powers was revealed, especially the weakening position of the US for years. This was previously alerted by expert and investigation centres and interviews. I remember my discussion with 1 of the members of the CIA leadership at the beginning of this century, erstwhile the afraid 1 pointed to the gradual sinking of his country into a crisis and saw China's possible of taking global leadership, with all the negative consequences for the West. The U.S. won the Cold War shortly before, and the CIA's black imagination did not gotta come true. There was a time for countermeasures. However, it turned out that in fact only the interview took them. another presidents trusted the American economical and military system, and did not take extremist steps. They did not even respond to the formation in 2009 in Russia's Yekaterinburg of an openly anti-American BRICS group – now with China, Russia, India, South Africa, Brazil, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United arabian Emirates. It already covers the majority of the world's population, and about 40 more countries apply for membership. China, thanks to its generous policy of helping mediocre countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America as part of the fresh Silk Road (BRI), has built a hegemon position in the countries of the global South – and this is about 150 UN states for about 200 total.
Especially disturbing, not only for the US, is Russia's alliance with China, which started and enabled Russia's aggressive military expansion to begin in Ukraine. The plans revealed by the U.S. intelligence indicate another expansion to areas especially of the Baltic States. However, contrary to Moscow's predictions, the war lasts more than 3 years, which makes Russia bear costs preventing further expansion. However, she did not abandon the main plans. She has moved the full economy to war tracks, announced further expansion of the armed forces for the time being up to 1.5 million soldiers, increased arms production, developed mobilization plans and prepared society for possible universal mobilization in the form known from the times of planet War II (the large Patriotic War), erstwhile about 11 million soldiers were mobilized. Their excavating and weaponry was possible thanks to immense aid from the West, especially the US (the alleged Lend Lease). China could now supply akin assistance if needed. On the scale of the war in Ukraine, this is not essential yet. Otherwise, it would most likely have been in the NATO war, and this would have happened if the Baltic states were attacked.
Russia is becoming increasingly vassal dependence on China. Without their help, her war with Ukraine would not have been possible. For the time being, China does not supply Russia with weapons, but provides comprehensive assistance in the supply of dual-purpose materials. They let the supply of all kinds of weapons from North Korea.
In the open and categorical Chinese plans is to absorb Taiwan. According to military analysts, they will be ready for this war operation soon. The most common date is around 2027. The planet is observing the improvement of the Chinese Navy's war fleet, especially landing ships, for this operation. Given the warnings coming from Washington, China has to face the U.S. reaction. The U.S. military power is being reoriented to Chinese threats (the alleged pacific pivot), since president Trump took office, it has accelerated rapidly. There are cuts in the national budget of up to $163 billion for the next year in order to spend additional resources on defense. They plan a evidence $1 trillion defence budget, which means an increase of 13%. They change the structure of spending on fresh weapons tested in Ukraine, including drones and combat robots, artificial intelligence and automation. They quit weapon systems that do not fit into the current battlefield, e.g. Apache helicopters, which are abandoned and another countries (Poland is buying them practically without offset), poorly armored tanks (M10 Booker) and somewhat armored cars. It'll take years, though.
Russian aid would be essential for China. The Russian attack on the Baltic states would tie NATO forces, read: for now mainly the US, in Europe, and thus facilitate Chinese expansion. Not just Taiwan. This imagination directs Americans to force the European NATO states to increase defence spending above 5% of GDP in each country (now only Poland is approaching this amount) due to delays and possible imminent war challenges. In those days, the U.S. Ambassador to NATO reiterated this request. It's going beautiful hard.
According to China and Russia, they are convinced of the present weakness of the West, the top since planet War II. This can give birth to them the temptation to prosecute their interests by military means to take advantage of their current advantage.
The diplomatic game led by president Trump – whose de facto pretext is to effort to negociate a truce and end the war in Ukraine, or at least to frost it – seems to have just ended in failure. Indeed, it was about excavating Russia from an alliance with China and removing the threat of global war. Russia seemed to be at a crossroads: either it would proceed an alliance with China (partnership without borders) and fall into always deeper vassalization, or it would normalize its relation with the West and negociate the principles of returning to cooperation. The US has never slammed the doors of Russia, as an example is maintaining strategical disarmament arrangements or maintaining the NATO-Russia Act of 1997 limiting the sovereignty of fresh members of the alliance, including Poland. However, the conditions proposed by Russia to end the war in Ukraine are a repetition of the ultimatum of 17 December 2021, already rejected by the US and NATO. In fact, they presume the end of Ukraine as a sovereign state. Russia so considers in peculiar that the deployment of western military units in Ukraine as peace guarantors is absolutely unacceptable. As Sergei Szojgu stated at the fresh BRICS gathering in Brazil, they will be considered legitimate targets.
Deglobalisation
So everything points to a fresh planet emerging in front of us, and Donald Trump's presidency has only accelerated changes that cannot be escaped. In addition to a power performance in the US-Russia-China triangle, we are dealing with a global redesign of economical links. The US and the European Union are moving distant from globalisation, understood as disposing of full industries (e.g. pharmaceutical) to China and another Far East countries. The US is doing it violently, Europe gradually. Customs have become an instrument of deglobalisation. president Trump, aware of the US's weaknesses in confronting China, sparked a trade war with almost all the world, raising customs sometimes to absurd heights. The duties were raised by his predecessors, but that didn't do much good. Now he utilized his “shock and terror” tactics. He shocked the governments of all the countries of the world, and now began negotiations with them from the position of force. However, those who he cares most about – China and Russia – rejected this maneuver and showed no submission and fear. The negotiations with China will so not be easy, and their result is uncertain. China is already utilizing blackmail tactics, e.g. cutting off the USA from uncommon earth metals. All this is happening in the situation of the UN and the planet Trade Organisation (WTO). These organisations are no longer for dispute resolution and reconciliation of frequently conflicting interests. Many experts prophesy that the planet is moving towards a fresh division of spheres of influence (not only in Europe), a fresh Yalta II or a global conflict that would gotta end with Yalta II. Military, economical forces and their alliances are increasingly important.
Polarisation
The global Monetary Fund in its yearly study "World economical Outlook" warned that as a consequence of president Trump's actions, the planet economy is at a critical moment. The economical strategy is reset. According to the IMF, average U.S. tariffs increased from 9 April to 25.9 percent compared to 2.3 percent at the end of 2024. That's the highest level in 130 years. In consequence to the US tariffs, another countries imposed prohibitive duties, including China, of 125% on imports from the USA.
The long-term impact of tariffs will be negative for all regions. The global financial strategy is based on an American dollar – it participates in almost 90% of all abroad exchange transactions. any observers pessimisticly foretell that their Trump policy could have begun the collapse of the dollar as a planet reserve currency and with it dominated by the United States' global financial system. For sure, all BRICS countries will work in this direction, utilizing the current global perturbations. possibly we can anticipate the fresh BRICS currency announced for years. Another crossroads.
New arms race
The planet has responded to an unprecedented increase in military spending since the Cold War. According to the Stockholm global Institute for Peace investigation (SIPRI) in 2024, global military spending amounted to US$2.718 billion, 9.4 percent higher than in 2023. The global expenditure increase was 10th year in a row and the share of military burdens in global GDP (total product of all countries) reached 2.5%. Over 100 countries have increased their defence spending.
Compared to last year, military spending in Europe increased by 17% – to $693 billion – and was a major contributor to global growth in 2024. Russia's spending (third place in the global ranking) reached $149 billion, an increase of 38% compared to 2023 and twice the 2015 level. This is besides 7.1% of Russia's GDP and 19% of all Russian government spending. The full military costs of Ukraine (eighth place) increased by 2.9 percent – to $64.7 billion – corresponding to 43 percent of Russia's expenditure. In 2024, Ukrainian spending on the army reached 34 percent of GDP – no country in the planet recorded specified a advanced rate of military spending in relation to the overall value of the property.
German spending increased by 28 percent, reaching $88.5 billion. Thus, the defence budget of the West Germany became the world's 4th largest while inactive in 2023. The Germans ranked seventh. Poland's spending increased by 31 percent, to $38.0 billion (ex aequo with Italy), which represents 4.2 percent of our GDP (12th place in the world).
In 2024, Britain increased its defence spending by 2.8 percent, to $81.8 billion, making it the sixth largest "military investor". France's military spending increased by 6.1 percent, to $64.7 billion, giving it a ninth place.
The jump included all NATO members and a full of $1.5 billion was spent for military purposes. Of the 32 Alliance members, 18 spent at least 2% of GDP on the armed forces, most since 2014, erstwhile this parameter was introduced. Europe has so entered a period of advanced and rising military spending, which is likely to proceed in the foreseeable future.
U.S. military spending has been the highest in the planet for years – increased by 5.7 percent, reaching a level of 997 billion dollars. This represents 37% of global arms spending from 2024. China, the second on the list of countries with the largest military budgets, allocated 7% more to the army than in 2023. In total, it was $314 billion, which means 3 decades of continuous increase in armaments. In 2024, the Central State was liable for 50% of all military expenditure in Asia and Oceania. Japan's military spending increased by 21%, to $55.3 billion, the largest yearly increase since 1952. Its military spending has reached a ceiling of 1.4% of GDP, the highest consequence since 1958. Military spending in India, the 5th largest in the world, increased by 1.6% – to $86.1 billion. Taiwan's spending increased by 1.8 percent, reaching $16.5 billion.
SIPRI warns that in the face of respective unresolved major disputes and increasing tensions, these investments endanger to drag Asia into a dangerous spiral of the arms race. In 2024 the European Union spent more on reinforcements than Russia and China combined (370 billion dollars) and ranks second in the world.
Polish crossroads
Global turbulence does not bypass Poland. The fastest consequence was the leaping increase in defence spending and structural transformations in the army (three fresh divisions: 18., 1st and 8th) and accelerated massive arms purchases. Weapons were rapidly available in the US and South Korea. Unfortunately, the improvement of the service and production facilities in Poland was neglected in a hurry. And the weapons producers are behind the oceans where transport routes in the event of war simply cease to exist. In the case of the U.S., offsets were not tempted, due to the fact that only with their aid can weapon manufacturers be forced to share licenses and investments in our country (shown by fresh examples from Germany and Finland). From the beginning, South Korea has been keen to invest in the Polish defence industry, creating a production and service centre in Europe, Africa and the mediate East (EMEA), on a akin basis to the Hyundai and KIA investments in the Czech Republic and Slovakia (on the margin – I watched how we lost these investments by indolence a fewer years ago). Despite the force of the Koreans, we are someway incapable to cope. Honor is saved by the private company WB Electronics, which will produce under the licence of a rocket (51% Hanhwa).
The absence of a Polish defence manufacture improvement strategy, a deficiency of a strategy for the improvement of the full manufacture and the Polish economy is avenged. If we had them, we'd know what we'd want from weapon manufacturers as offsets. I remember that during offset negotiations with Lockheed Martin for the acquisition of F-16 aircraft (100 percent offset) the main problem of our manufacture was what to want here. It's not better now.
The situation of the defence manufacture is inactive better, due to the fact that it is now a priority. There's quite a few effort. On the another hand, what the situation of our full manufacture looked like was said at the European economical legislature in Katowice. According to the president of Stalprofil Henryk Orczykowski:
"The manufacture is sinking. (...) We have excellent companies, perfectly equipped with material, human, IT, logistics resources. We can save costs and do whatever is possible inside the company. We are powerless erstwhile it comes to the environment, energy prices, unfair external competition. We are powerless erstwhile it comes to the influx of goods from 3rd countries. It's all out of our hands. It is up to the government and EU solutions, in which nothing happens."
Perhaps the government's announcements of "economic nationalism" will be followed by corrective steps. Personally, however, I like “economic patriotism”. Just patriotism and action.
