The Russians cannot afford to lose Crimea and the backdrop for the Black Sea Fleet (and it is hard to imagine a deal before 2014, erstwhile Ukraine guaranteed the extraterritoriality of Russian bases). It is besides worth noting that the situation in which Moscow loses its ‘its’ territory contradicts the basic presumption of putinism, or imperial subjectivity of the Federation. It's like Hitler and his credo: “Germany must be great, or they won't be at all”, which brought a full war on Europe. It is highly likely that defending the peninsula would besides be "total" – including reaching for atomic blackmail.
Ukrainians are aware of these conditions. Why, then, are the Russian garrison being attacked with specified an atrocity Crimea And they're tracking the Black Sea Fleet unit? Do I even make sense of this usage of potential? It has – both in the current and in the long term.
As far as the second is concerned, the essence of the Ukrainian strategy is the “disgusting” of the Russian peninsula. Multiplication of costs related to the business of Crimea and making Moscow wonder if the game (understood as having a peninsula) is worth candles. In the face of increasing doubts, it might turn out that a land operation of the Ukrainian army – or diplomatic force – would not encounter large resistance.
As regards the current perspective, note that not only Russian ships are under attack, but besides port military infrastructure and installations specified as radars, ground launchers, airports or office of the Black Sea Fleet. As a consequence of this pressure, defenders not only abolished the hazard of the Russian landing but besides broke up blockade of the Ukrainian sea coast. Food from above Dnieper present flows by ships to Istanbul and Constanta, and the gross from this is fed by Kiev's war budget.
The Russians weren't just driven out of the west. Black Sea waters. The “grilling” of the Crimean hinterland and attacks on the units close the peninsula caused the Black Sea Fleet to decision most of the ships to the base in Noworosyjsk, to the east Russian seashore. And fundamentally sits there, carrying out the minimum task – protecting the Crimean Bridge, the logistical "road of life" and the mesh in Putin's head.
A view of the destroyed Antonowski Bridge on the Dniepr River, November 2022.
And while we're at logistics, let's pay attention to what kind of ships the Ukrainians are targeting. They are seemingly useless landing ships. Apparently, due to the fact that the Russians do not intend to usage ships in their first function. They know well that another attack on the Crimean Bridge is simply a substance of time. They are aware that the railway road they are building in the south of Ukraine will be the mark for Ukrainian far-reaching and precise artillery. And the railway routes have quite a few “narrow throats”, like bridges or viaducts. Both supply threads can so be broken. Landing ships are an option to do so erstwhile supplies are required by sea.
The Russians can usage 3 ports – in Przymorsk, Berdian and Mariupol. Which they do in a limited way. In limited, due to the fact that the Azov Sea is shallow, there will be no large vessels entering these ports. This will be done adapted to operate on shallow water landing vessels (they are yet tasked with providing invasive forces as close to the coast as possible). Of course, even all landing ships utilized to transport supplies would not destruct logistics problems – they are besides tiny and there are besides few. But they would have let the Russians catch their breath.
But present – erstwhile half of the Russian 15 landing ships are no longer going anywhere – it would be a very shallow breath.
