Challenges related to the integration of Ukrainian citizens in Poland

Since 2014, Poland has continuously been the main goal of migration of Ukrainian citizens. They are now a crucial proportion of the population in our country. The influx of people from across the east border is besides a chance to alleviate fatal demographic trendsThe consequences of which she will gotta face Poland sooner or later.

The ageing and shrinking of its population will hamper the economical improvement of Poland, and will make an expanding burden on the state budget, among others, for pensions. Even now, the bad demographic situation besides complicates plans, arising in so seemingly distant spheres as the Polish Army and Planned Army Reform.

The current rate of natural growth threatens in the long word progressive marginalisation Poland on the global stage. The solutions put in place so far do not give hope of improving this situation. To date, only migration from the areas of Ukraine is so an chance to minimize the negative effects of Poland's demographic disadvantage.

However, it is essential to item the challenges facing our country with respect to the appropriate integration of Ukrainian citizens. With the aid of writing a text on the subject came first of all Ariel Draginskiwhich monitors the demographic situation on an ongoing basis and Dariusz Materniakwho is an expert in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Thank you, gentlemen!

Migration situation before the outbreak of war

Before 24.02.2022 the influx of Ukrainian citizens into Poland was purely economic. This process was besides characterised by male dominance among migrants, and temporaryity. Visitors from the east border came to our country for a fewer months a year to work. They then returned to their families to return to Poland in any time.

Thus it was estimated that only about 300,000 Ukrainians were permanently present in the Republic. The full number was between 1.1 million and 1.3 million at the end of 2021. By Ariel Draginski, however, these data are highly underestimated due to the fact that they mainly include people who worked in Poland. However, it is hard to find the number of their relatives from Ukraine.

The sum of children with Ukrainian citizenship in Poland can be estimated on the basis of data from the Educational Information System. This strategy does not indicate nationality, but it is known that Ukrainian children were included in the existing “categories”: “no status” and “other”. They number 86,402 children and 20,544 children.

On 30.09.2020, 135,801 students of non-Polish citizenship were besides taught in Polish schools. So if you presume that children from Ukraine are against the background of the full number of abroad children residing in Poland, a akin percent to adults Ukrainians from another countries, you can estimation the number of students from Ukraine in 2021.

Number of refugees from Ukraine in Poland

As of 25.09.2022 there were 1,373 382 refugees from Ukraine who had the PESEL number, of which:

• 599 565 are children aged 0-18.
• 681 456 are persons aged 19–64, including 589 253 women and 92 203 men.
• 92,361 are at least 60 years old, including 78,803 women and 13,558 men. (source: Polish improvement Fund).

We besides know that 181,000 children of migrants from Ukraine learn in Polish schools, including:

• 33,000 in kindergartens.
• 125,000 in primary schools.
• 10,000 in general schools
• 7,000 in techniques
• 3,500 in post-secondary schools.
• 2 600 in industry. (source: Polish improvement Fund)

In addition, by Border defender Data by 07.06.2022, 432,000 men of draft age from Ukraine entered Poland. We do not know, however, how much of them remained in our country and what part of them went to another countries. The reverse process, i.e. men of draft age to Ukraine, was besides observed. However, we do not know the scale of this phenomenon.

In summary, we can estimation that presently in Poland there are between 2.4 – 3 million Ukrainians. It is worth mentioning that earlier Ariel Drabiński's predictions for another Inflow of refugees during the vacation period It worked.

According to UN data, 23% of the refugees in Poland arrived in our country in July and August.

Public debate on integration of Ukrainian citizens within Polish society

In view of the above information, as well as the advanced probability of expanding the number of Ukrainian citizens in Poland, it is essential to launch a public debate on the future position of the mentioned national number in the territory of the Republic of Poland. It should answer a number of key questions:

• Should a simplified citizenship procedure be prepared for Ukrainian citizens?
  • If not, will the right of permanent residence be sufficient? And should it be broadcast on the basis of existing rules or simplified principles?
    
• Should children of Ukrainian citizens born in Poland automatically receive Polish citizenship (in Poland there is simply a right of blood, not land)?
  
• Do Poles want to accept any number of Ukrainians?
  • If not, should the government of the Republic of Poland introduce a quota strategy after the war, like the US system? At what level should a possible limit be set?

Given the demographic situation, we believe that the answer to all 3 of the above questions should be yes. However, we know that not all gotta agree with that view. However, we hope that a possible debate would enable the undecided to convince. possibly besides any skeptics.

At the same time, each Ukrainian exile should participate in a survey which would answer at least 3 questions:

• Does he plan to stay in Poland for more than a year?
• Does he plan to bring his relatives to Poland after the war? If so, in what number?
• What issues does he consider to be the biggest challenge in the integration process?
• What are his professional qualifications?

Thanks to the information obtained in this way, the Polish government would be clear about the intentions of both parties of the process of integration of Ukrainian citizens within the Polish society. In addition, with an knowing of the scale of long-term migration from the East, it would be possible to prepare seriously to improve this process.

Key challenges of the integration process

Amongst a number of challenges facing Poland in the face of the influx of Ukrainian citizens, the following issues arise first:

• Labour marketplace access.
• Situation on the housing market.
• Increase the efficiency of education and healthcare systems.
• Security challenges.
• Historical issues.

Labour marketplace access

The issue of access of Ukrainian citizens to the Polish labour marketplace has been mostly solved due to the shortage of workers in our country. Migrants from across the east border who arrived in the territory of the Republic before the war did not have much problem uncovering a job.

Of the Ukrainians who left their country after the outbreak of the war, almost 60% of them found employment in Poland. In addition, National economical Records Database There is an increase in the number of single-person economical activities assumed by migrants from the East:

• January: 202 established companies
• February: 202 established companies
• March: 303 companies founded
• April: 924 Companies founded
• May: 1365 Companies founded
• June: 1564 established companies
• July: 1835 Companies founded
• August: 2002 Companies founded

Importantly, in August the number of citizens established The Ukrainian companies accounted for nearly 10% of the full number of recently formed companies. For this moment, migrants do not have a problem uncovering work in Poland. Another issue is whether our economy uses the professional qualifications of refugees appropriately?

From Collected by Ariel Draginski Anecdotal evidence shows that cases of Ukrainian citizens performing work below their respective competences occur. The IT industry, which is able to absorb almost any number of employees, is simply a privileged exception in this respect.

Another crucial issue is whether the Polish economy will be able to accept further migrants from Ukraine, erstwhile the process of household reunification begins and the expected economical difficulties are increased. However, these issues may play a little crucial function than the ageing process of the Polish society, which will drive request for fresh workers.

Situation on the housing market

The influx of Ukrainian citizens to Poland will origin increased housing pressure, which is already immense in our country. Currently, according to Deloitte, the RP ranks in the tail of European countries in terms of the number of apartments per 1000 inhabitants:

Number of housing units per 1000 inhabitants. Source: Deloitte report.

The difficulties in the housing marketplace cannot be resolved in the short and average term. Massive construction of both state and private buildings is necessary, the aim of which should be to meet housing needs not only of Polish citizens but besides of people residing on its territory.

Despite the advanced request on the real property market, nearly 11% of existing housing in Poland is uninhabited. They are located in towns with a negative migration balance or are treated by owners as investments. Therefore, these premises are not presently subject to rent.

In this situation, ad hoc action could be the dislocation of migrants in depopulated areas. There is simply a large number of deserts in them. These, which are in the hands of local governments, can be renovated comparatively rapidly and thus, albeit minimally reduced housing pressure.

Performance of education and healthcare systems

On the basis of the data cited above, we can presume that more than 200,000 Ukrainian children are presently learning in Poland. This represents about half of the number of children, which starts education in the first grade of primary school each year. Meanwhile, According to MEiN, 17 1000 teachers are missing in Poland. In turn According to ZNP, this number can scope up to 70 thousand.

The influx of migrants will besides pose a challenge to the wellness service. It has been facing problems for years, especially under-financing and shortages of staff. By OECD study on wellness at a Glance 2020 There are 2.4 doctors per 1,000 inhabitants in Poland, while the EU average is 3.4. Moreover, nearly 25% of Polish doctors are in retirement age.

Difficulties with the capacity of education and healthcare systems are so important. 1 way to solve them is to certify teachers of Ukrainian origin. At present, they only have the position of teacher help, so they cannot teach at school. A akin "absorbation" of doctors and nurses who are among migrants is besides indicated.

Ariel Draginski believes, however, that the only long-term solution to wellness shortages is the mass recruitment of doctors from abroad. Egypt can be a peculiarly interesting place in this regard. It educates a large number of people working in medical professions. They are encouraged to emigrate, among others, by Western European countries.

Other places of origin of doctors invited to Poland may besides be countries of South America, Southeast Asia, as well as states of erstwhile USSR.

Security challenges

There will besides be an increase in crime in the population. It is hard to find whether this phenomenon is more or little widespread among Ukrainian citizens coming to Poland than among our countrymen. The first information from police officers working in ‘areas’ indicates that the cross-section of migrants varies.

Some buy mixing and others bargain from them. Further developments will depend mostly on the effectiveness of integration of refugees into society. For example, if a crucial proportion of them have difficulty uncovering themselves on the labour market, tiny crime and seizures are expected to increase.

The failure of integration and the possible separation of part of the inflow population in quasi-gettas may besides lead to organised criminal groups based on national criteria. This was the case, among others, for Chechens in Poland, who are so far “strong” in any areas of the country.

In conjunction with the influx of war veterans from Ukraine, this would most likely affect the phenomenon of brutalization of the criminal planet in the 1990s. Organisations operating within national minorities are so more hard to “keep” by law enforcement authorities. The increase in arms smuggling to Poland is besides almost certain.

In addition, the counter-intelligence risks of the influx of migrants must not be underestimated. The activity of the Ukrainian peculiar Services makes it presumed that a large proportion of the refugees had a conversation with their representatives before leaving. Depending on their further fate, specified relations may be renewed.

Our east neighbors have a sober approach to the question of intelligence. They presume that due to geopolitical conditions, Poland is 1 of the main interests of their services. Meanwhile, our elites tend to display a large amount of naivety in this area and to "let go" certain directions depending on current political sentiments.

At the service level, however, we should not presume that since "Ukrainians are now our friends", we underestimate counterintelligence over Polish citizens of this country.

Historical issues

The debate on the integration of Ukrainian citizens cannot ignore historical issues. Dariusz Materniak believes that in time they will most likely lose importance in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Past conflicts (especially those from and after planet War II) inactive stay abstract events in the sphere of historical memory.

Currently, for the large majority of Poles, their modern relations with Ukrainian citizens are the first to rise. These results from personal, direct contacts established in fresh years and providing assistance to Ukrainian refugees in late winter and spring 2022.

These tangible experiences and memories have definitely affirmative connotations, which will besides affect relationships at the collective level. However, it cannot be excluded that any environments will effort to play on emotions and put the current political interest above the long-term Polish-Ukrainian relations.

Responsibility to prevent this from happening on the elites of both countries. affirmative information in this respect reaches us, among others, from Ukrainian military circles. The officers there were to be very careful that soldiers would express respect for Poles and not fuel disagreements against historical background.

It remains to be hoped that besides on our side the work for long-term interests of the Polish Republic will prevail. In that case, the situation from erstwhile years, erstwhile historical issues dominated relations between Warsaw and Kiev should not be repeated.

Russian information activity

Dariusz Materniak, however, points out that the historical problem was, is and will proceed to be utilized by the Russians for the purposes of the information war. In his opinion, more action is expected in this area especially during the winter period 2022/23.

In our opinion, however, in Poland besides much “resolution” of Russian misinformation is attributed. It should be remembered that the condition for its effectiveness is to fuel existing social trends alternatively than to make fresh ones. In our country there are pro-Russian and/or anti-Ukrainian environments. any of them are inspired from Moscow and any are not.

Therefore, the starting point for countering Russian information activity should be to limit the already existing and disadvantageous interests of Polish sentimentalists. Fortunately, however, they are now at most on the margins of public debate. At the same time, society is very delicate to possible attempts to push pro-Russian messages.

So if we convince most Poles that integration of Ukrainian citizens is simply a right move, then the field of action for hostile information activity will be limited. Effectiveness in this area is besides a form of preventing the usage of e.g. crime which is caused by members of national minorities to fuel conflicts between Poles and Ukrainians.

It is crucial to recognise that the fight against misinformation with the aid of only peculiar services and with the rule of non-violence of civilian liberties is hard in democratic countries.

These institutions are much better suited to play a concrete function within the full strategy of countering hostile information activity. An example of the anticipation of utilizing peculiar services in this area is, among others, the control of the sources of backing for certain organisations and environments.

Summary

Problems related to the integration of Ukrainian citizens, are mostly not different from those that affect Poles on a regular basis and are the consequence of the weakness of the Polish state in the crucial aspects of its citizens' lives. Unfortunately, 7 months have already been slept over, where comprehensive measures to prepare the country for the influx from the east have not been launched.

Nevertheless, the balance of profits and losses of the current situation is positive. Migration from Ukraine can supply an impulse for Poland to improve its demographic situation, and to avoid the trap of low growth. In particular, it affects countries whose societies have aged before they have already become rich.