The last years in the Polish real property marketplace were full of dynamic changes that affected housing prices and the availability of mortgage loans. According to Eurostat, in the first 4th of 2024 housing prices in Poland increased by 18% compared to the erstwhile year, which was the fastest increase in the European Union. However, fresh reports indicate a change in this trend. The sellers are starting to lower prices, and there are more and more offers on the market. The article will discuss in item these changes, their causes and possible consequences for the real property market.
Rising Housing Prices in Poland
In the beginning of 2024, housing prices in Poland grew at a staggering rate, reaching the highest growth in the full European Union. Eurostat reported that in the first 4th of 2024 housing prices were 18% higher than the year before. By comparison, the average increase in housing prices in the EU was only 1%. Poland and Bulgaria, where prices rose by 16%, were the only countries with double-digit increases.
Decline Price Apartments in Polish Cities
However, since June 2024, there has been a marked decrease in housing prices in many Polish cities. For the first time since May 2023, most cities have seen price drops. In 10 of the 17 cities surveyed, housing prices decreased, with the largest decrease recorded in Toruń (7.5%). another cities where prices decreased were Gdansk (3.1%), Rzeszów (-3.1%), Lodz (-2%), Białystok (-2%), Sosnowiec (-1.3%), Szczecin (-1.2%), Gdynia (-1), Poznań (-0.8%) and Warsaw (-0.1%).
Cities with Price Increase
Despite the general downward trend, any cities have experienced increases in housing prices in fresh offers. In Radom prices rose by 7.6% to 8,000 PLN per square metre, and in Czestochowa by 4.4% to 7295 PLN per square metre. Bydgoszcz recorded an increase of PLN 3.7% to PLN 8888 per square metre, Lublin by PLN 2% to PLN 10,612 per square metre, and Wrocław by PLN 0.8% to PLN 13,405 per square metre. Price increases were besides observed in Katowice and Krakow, although they did not exceed evidence levels from erstwhile months.
Worst situation in the tiny Housing Market
Data for the second 4th of 2024 show that the largest price drops were recorded in the tiny housing segment. In Sosnowiec, prices of tiny apartments fell by 9% and in Wrocław by 6%. In turn, the largest price increase occurred in tiny apartments in Toruń (+14%) and in Radom (+13%). The average quarterly price change was 1.5% for tiny housing, 3.1% for average and 3.6% for large premises, which shows that the tiny housing section is doing worse than average and large housing.
Number of apartments in the marketplace Square is growing
At the end of July 2024, the number of housing offers on the primary and secondary markets increased significantly. According to the Otodom and OLX website data, in the 7 largest cities in Poland the number of available apartments for sale exceeded 91 thousand, which represents a 40% increase compared to the same period of 2023. Nominally, the number of announcements increased by 26,000.
W Warsaw recorded 1 of the biggest increases, with 23,964 offers, which means an increase of 56.8% compared to 30 July 2023 and the highest score since November 2022. In Wrocław, the second largest number of offers was 15,970, an increase of 45.9% compared to the erstwhile year.
Analysis of Individual Cities
Warsaw
Warsaw, as the capital and largest city of Poland, has always played a key function in the real property market. With 23,964 housing offers in July 2024, Warsaw recorded the highest increase in offers since November 2022. This increase of 56.8% compared to the erstwhile year shows that the housing marketplace in the capital is increasingly competitive, which can contribute to further price cuts.
Wrocław
In Wrocław, the number of housing offers was 15,970, an increase of 45.9% compared to the erstwhile year. Wrocław, as a dynamically developing city with advanced academic and business potential, attracts both investors and fresh residents. An increase in the number of offers may indicate an increased supply, which can lead to stabilisation or even price decreases.
Kraków
Kraków, with more than 10 1000 offers, recorded an increase of 38.7% per year. Kraków, 1 of the most crucial cultural and academic centres in Poland, besides observes the increase in housing supply. The increase in the number of offers at the level of March 2023, erstwhile the housing credit strategy "Safe lending 2%" was announced, indicates the crucial impact of government policy on the real property market.
Łódź and Poznan
In Łódź and Poznań, the number of offers besides reached evidence levels. In Łódź there were 10 590 housing units available, which represents an increase of nearly 60% compared to the erstwhile year, and in Poznań 9849, which means an increase of 43.7% in the same period. Łódź and Poznań, although little popular than Warsaw, Wrocław or Kraków, besides experience dynamic changes in the real property market, which can attract investors looking for favorable opportunities.
Factors affecting the Real property Market
Inflow of Ukrainian Population
One possible origin that could affect the real property marketplace is the influx of Ukrainian population. The geopolitical situation in the region may lead to an increased influx of refugees seeking housing. This can increase request in the real property market, leading to higher prices, especially in large cities.
Residential Credit Support Schemes
Housing lending schemes, specified as “Safe lending 2%”, have a crucial impact on the real property market. The introduction of specified schemes may increase the availability of mortgage loans, which in turn will increase request for housing. expanding request can lead to unchangeable or rising housing prices.
Market stability
Despite current challenges, the real property marketplace can stabilise over 2-3 years. marketplace stableness will depend on many factors, including government policy, economical situation and population influx. If fresh lending support schemes are not introduced or if the influx of refugees is small, the marketplace can accomplish a balance, which will let for more predictable and unchangeable housing prices.
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