The polls before the second circular of the presidential election indicate an highly balanced race between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki. Both candidates enjoy almost identical social support and differences fall within the limits of statistical error. The race remains open and the forecasting of the winner – very difficult.
Pride: Election polls request not coincide with election results
This is besides how experts look at the case, who execute specified investigation on a regular basis.
– The polls do not gotta coincide with election results at all, due to the fact that polls do not in rule service to foretell the future, due to the fact that for this there is an election forecast," says Marcin Duma, head of the Institute for marketplace and Social investigation (IBRiS).
– The polls diagnose where we are erstwhile the poll was made. We have specified a tendency to look at polls and say, "Oh, boy, it's going to be this way," Duma adds, indicating that it doesn't should be that way.
It besides points out that the ending election run is rather circumstantial compared to the erstwhile one.
– As for this peculiar election campaign, she is very special. Each run is circumstantial in any way, but the feature is that the level of emotion is deadly advanced – the expert reminds us.
– So intense, but besides a dirty electoral run actually has not been there since 1989. And that besides has a circumstantial impact on the polls," he says.
– erstwhile we have specified a advanced level of emotion, these changes and overdrives – of course not all voters – but with specified a close consequence even a tiny group of voters (affecting between 100 and 200 1000 voters), may be crucial for the final election consequence – explains Duma. “These indecisive people truly hesitate,” he emphasizes.
Who will the Mentzen voters vote for?
– Moreover, even among those voters who pointed out in the survey by Karol Nawrocki or Rafał Trzaskowski, there are besides those voters who, possibly in a day or two, will not, of course, shift their vote to the another side, but they may not feel motivated adequate to go and vote for the candidate they were reasoning about during the poll, to whom they were close to them," he points out.
– I don't think polls will find in specified an unambiguous way who will be the winner in this race," he says.
The pride besides recalled that what was shown by the run from 10 years ago erstwhile Bronisław Komorowski and Andrzej Duda competed. At that time, any voters decided on the election card or on Saturday during the silence of the election. This is mainly about the voters of Paul Kukiz.
– Today, the function of voters Paul Kukiz is played by voters Sławomir Mentzen – he notes. Let us remind you: the leader of the Confederacy convinced 14.8 percent of voters.
The pride is besides of the opinion that polls are not as favorable to Trzaskowski as if the difference between candidates is only 2.5 points, then the reader/viewer can see it, but for experts it is not so significant.
The expert recalled here that the mistake adopted during the survey was 3 percent points. – The result, specified as present (Wednesday-ed.) – 47.4% (Trzaskowski-ed.) and 45% (Nawrocki-ed.), is for me – even though these are not the same numbers – for me they are the same numbers – he concludes.
A poller: We know the win will be close
Tomasz Sienietycz of investigation Partner besides draws attention to the specificity of the run that lasts respective twelve hours and the hard to foretell final result. He believes that "this is the most perverse choices that can be from the researcher's point of view".
– 1 can be mistaken by two-tenths and say that candidate A will win, and if candidate B wins, everyone will say that I was incorrect – the expert points out, while explaining that the mistake of the survey will be very tiny and from the researcher's point of view it is simply a success, and from the average recipient's point of view it is simply a failure due to the fact that it pointed incorrectly to 1 of the candidates. This is where we know we're gonna win. Only no 1 truly knows how it will take place – he emphasizes.
The expert besides recalls that Rafał Trzaskowski lost erstwhile elections. – 1 could say "up to 3 times the art", but I think that any things that were done in the election run will not favour him at all, due to the fact that our nation is simply a bit perverse," he notes.
An example is the focus of Trzaskovsky's staff on Karol Nawrocki. – The more we tell individual that the another individual is bad, the more opposition wakes up at any point due to the fact that there is any kind of solstice. I think here it was 1 of the mistakes made by today's rulers – he states.
Seniutist, who has worked in advertising in the past, recalls that from a marketing point of view "this is weak, as it is just throwing mud at the second candidate alternatively than highlighting his own good qualities".
– And those good qualities that Trzaskowski wants to show are shown in an Augustine way – he said.
New polls ahead of 2nd circular of presidential election
What, though, did fresh polls show? 2 polls were published on Wednesday. In both Rafał Trzaskowski holds the lead. According to a survey by United Surveys for Virtual Poland, he obtained 47.4% of support, ahead of Karol Nawrocki, for which 45 percent of respondents want to vote.
Similar results come from the opinion24 survey commissioned by RMF FM – Trzaskowski received 47.5% of the indications, while Nawrocki supported 45.9 percent of the respondents.
Recall: Sunday (1 June) Poles will again decision to the polls in the decisive match for the presidential seat. The second circular of elections will be attended by those mentioned: Rafał Trzaskowski, candidate of the Civic Coalition and Karol Nawrocki – supported by the Law and Justice.
Election venues will be open from 7 to 21. In order to vote, you should have an crucial identity card with you. If you are not staying at the check-in, you must notify the change of venue in advance or have a certificate.
