According to the results of the study, there was a change in the poll leader. The Law and Justice were first, with the support of 29.6% of the respondents. This is an increase of 0.8 percent points compared to the erstwhile survey in early April.
The Citizen Coalition, which has so far occupied the first place, fell to the second position with a score of 28.6 percent. This is 6.3 percent points little than a fewer weeks ago – a crucial decrease that may origin concern.
The 3rd place is taken by the Confederation with a consequence of 13.9%. Compared to the erstwhile survey, the 3rd road, i.e. the alliance of Poland 2050 and PSL, gained 8.1 percent of support, which means an increase of 1.2 points percent.
The Left organization recorded 7.9 percent support, an increase of 2.9 percent points. Apart from the Sejm, it would be a grouping of Together, although its quotations increased to 3.5 percent, i.e. by 3 percent points more than last time. 8.4 percent of respondents do not know who they would vote for.
That's how the seats in the Sejm would spread.
According to the WP, according to a calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis from the Jagiellonian University, this is how the division of forces in the Sejm would look:
Law and Justice – 168 mandates
Civil Coalition – 162
Confederation – 68
Third Road – 31
Left – 30
German number – 1 mandate
This means that the ruling coalition (KO, 3rd Road, Left) would gain a full of 223 mandates – not adequate to form a government on its own. A possible PiS coalition with the Confederate could number on 236 mandates and get a majority.
For comparison, in the erstwhile survey the right could number on 247 tickets. This decline mainly involves crossing the electoral threshold by the 3rd Road and expanding support for the Left.
If elections were held next Sunday, 56.9% of respondents declare their participation. 41.8 percent do not intend to vote, and 1.3% have not yet taken a decision.
Dr. Krzysztof Piekarski from the University of Gdańsk points out that changes in the polls may be related to the presidential campaign.
– In general, you can see that erstwhile Rafał Trzaskowski starts to lose and Karol Nawrocki reduces distance to him, this besides involves the Citizen Platform. This is yet the Platform's favorite, not the full government coalition," he said to the HR.
The expert besides adds that Donald Tusk's government cannot boast spectacular successes. He cited economical issues as an example. As he pointed out, matters are being sorted out after 8 years of the regulation of the Law and Justice, but the results are not satisfactory to society. "And since there are no advantages, people presume that they "manage and do nothing," he said.
The United Surveys survey for Virtual Poland was conducted from 17 to 19 April 2025 by CATI and CAWI methods on a typical example of 1000 people.
