From past successes to fresh challenges
The external and interior conditions have changed importantly over the last 2 decades. erstwhile I closed the doors of the Presidential Palace behind me in 2005, I was convinced that we had achieved the most crucial goals. The Constitution adopted in 1997 was the foundation of a democratic regulation of law and created a framework for the sustainable improvement of the free marketplace economy. safety was assured by NATO membership gained in 1999. The European Union, which we joined in 2004, opened up extraordinary prospects for the improvement of civilization.
The success of systemic and economical transformation, the improvement of self-government – despite weaknesses and frequently inevitable mistakes – made Poland more resilient, prepared for fresh challenges.
Transformative successes have given Poland strength and strong improvement foundations, but the fresh era has brought challenges that require rethinking safety and resilience.
But the breakthroughs of centuries and subsequent years brought more than could be predicted. Terrorism, fresh technologies, the financial and migration crisis, Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's aggressive neo-imperial policy have forced us to rethink many safety and resilience issues. erstwhile documents, solutions as well as established practice and regular of action proved insufficient.
New mission of the president of Poland
Under changed conditions, the president of Poland should focus his efforts on respective key areas.
As head of the Armed Forces, it should not only search to keep about 5% of GDP in military spending, which will shortly become NATO standard – but besides for sensible, coordinated and coherent purchases of equipment, the improvement of the home arms industry, a consistent human resources policy and wider integration of our representatives into an integrated command strategy within the North Atlantic Alliance.
The President's function is not only to safeguard military security, but besides to build sustainable resilience of the state – through smart policies, education and integration of efforts of the full society.
As head of state with the strongest democratic mandate, The president can and should support the strengthening of state resilience carried out by public administration, services, local governments, businesses, organisations and social groups. Not only are appropriate regulations needed – fresh or revised at the President's initiative – but besides a long-term education, information and actions to support the everyday organization practice to which the president should be patronised.
The importance of interior cohesion
The issue of Polish-Polish reconciliation is peculiarly crucial today. Social polarisation, deepened by major political forces since 2005, has been highly advanced and risky. Social capital, which we request especially in the face of threats, is only 50%. Without dialogue, readiness to cooperate and a cross-party agreement, we will be weaker, more susceptible to threats and attacks.
It's a hard task, but necessary. The president should feel liable for the community, and all the more reason to be a organization in this devastating Polish-Polish war.
Alliances and Geopolitics
The safety of Poland is inextricably linked to our geographical position, to the alliances we belong to, and to the abroad policy which the president co-creates with the government and the parliamentary majority, while conducting dialog with the opposition. Geography will not change – and Russia's ambition to rebuild “Big Russia” will stay a permanent part of the situation in our region, both behind Putin and after his departure.
Without interior consent, there is no external force – the resilience of the state starts with social cohesion and the ability to dialog beyond divisions.
NATO, with Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, remains the most crucial warrant of our safety – a pillar of deterrence and expanding readiness to act in the event of aggression. The upcoming changes in the Alliance are inevitable, and Poland must co-determine their shape. We have strong arguments for this: military possible and level of military spending, consistent presence on missions in Afghanistan and Iraq, and support provided to Ukraine.
However, this requires strengthening the European NATO component – greater funding, closer cooperation between the arms industries, the implementation of joint technological projects and the integration of military structures. The American safety umbrella slowly, but inevitably closes. Transatlantic bonds will stay important, but will be weakened not only due to political decisions, but mainly due to the changing social structure of the United States – less and less citizens with European roots, more and more from Latin America and Asia.
In a planet of geopolitical shifts, Poland must not only be the beneficiary of alliances but besides their co-architect – actively co-shaping Europe's safety and strengthening transatlantic ties.
This is simply a symbolic change: NATO's enlargement took place with the Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, born in Czechoslovakia, and present the reforms will be coordinated by Marco Rubio, the boy of Cuban immigrants. In these turbulent times, Poland must be an active concern about maintaining the closest, conventional – but besides refreshed and pragmatic – relations with the United States, European allies and Canada.
Relations in the EU and the region
The good future of the European Union is besides a condition for our resilience. Whether it will be – depends on many factors, but the Polish attitude is crucial here. If, as a country, we stay Eurosceptic and even openly reluctant of the Union, we will aid realise the script of its disintegration - to the joy of Moscow, Beijing, Washington, and, unfortunately, Budapest and Bratislava. This would be suicidal.
Polish resilience begins in Europe – the community of values and interests with the EU and neighbouring cooperation with Germany are the pillars of safety in the region and the key to influencing the fresh geostrategic order.
Poland with pro-European leaders and with the support of the majority of society, can introduce the Union to fresh geostrategic architecture as 1 of 3 global players – alongside China and the USA. This could be the decisive choice for the future power strategy in the 21st century. I'm not overreacting.
Another part of our safety is the situation in the region. We're in a ambiguous position. On the 1 hand, aggressive, Belarus-backed Russia's policy; on the another hand, the fact that we are in NATO and the EU together with all the neighbours in the region, including the Baltic (newly besides with Sweden and Finland).
It is peculiarly crucial to have a common presence in these alliances with Germany – a country with which we had a tragic past for decades. Today, Polish-German reconciliation, economical cooperation and cross-border relations are invaluable – and not wasted.
There will be no safe and resilient Poland without sovereign Ukraine – its place in the western order is simply a condition for the permanent stableness of the full region.
Importance of Ukraine
The future of Ukraine is simply a key issue for our resilience and security. erstwhile at the beginning of Russian aggression – at a time erstwhile a fewer days of Putin's war and parade were expected in Kiev – I was asked about forecasts, I talked about the war for years and the conflict for generations. Today, after more than 3 years, you can see that these words were not excessive.
The level of hatred, caused by the brutality of Russian "brothers" towards Ukrainian sisters and brothers – as Putin himself says about them – crossed the threshold for fast forgiveness and reconciliation. The efforts of Europe and the United States, although necessary, are not able to bring just and lasting peace today. The main obstacle is Putin's relentless attitude and Russia's desire to submit not to parts but to all Ukraine. In the concept of “Great Russia” there is no place for sovereign, independent and western Ukraine. The tactics may change, but the Kremlin's strategy remains unchanged – Ukraine is to stay in the Russian sphere of influence.
Poland must do everything to guarantee that Ukraine retains its sovereignty – even if it has to accept the partial failure of territory. We must support her way to the West, halt the anti-Ukrainian moods fueled by the utmost right in Poland, and actively co-create a regional order based on common values: democracy, marketplace economy, human rights and the regulation of law. specified a imagination of the future of Ukraine is distant, but with active Polish politics – inactive real.
A fresh planet Order
We live in a time of shaping a fresh planet order. The Cold War ended with the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the dominance of the United States and the democratic planet began to weaken under subsequent crises of the early 21st century. From geopolitical chaos emerges a multipolar planet – with powerful China, competing to preserve the global leadership of the United States, with Russia openly articleing the desire to rebuild its sphere of influence, with a dynamic Global South, including India aspiring to play a large role, and with the European Union, having large possible but struggling with its own problems and complexes.
In the face of the fresh planet order, Poland must stay strong internally – only a modern, democratic and far-sighted state will be able to guarantee its safety and place at a global table.
The task of Poland is to last this time of chaos, tensions, conflicts and unpredictability – which will last many years – and find itself in a new, multi-vector planet order. The foundation of our position should be democratic Poland, economically efficient, socially integrated, guided by the imagination of the future – not subject to triviality of everyday politics. Investment in education, culture, science, fresh technologies will be crucial, but besides in effective border protection, modern armed forces and liable migration policies – essential for the forthcoming demographic crisis.
Only specified Poland will not only build, but besides warrant its safety and resilience in the coming decades.
