The full global supply of atomic warheads was estimated at 12,241 (as of January 2025). 2627 of them were decommissioned heads, the remainder remained at different levels of readiness for use. 3912 copies were “at hand” – part of the heads stored close “carriers” – aircraft and launchers – but as many as 2100 were kept in the state of highest operational readiness. Placed on ballistic missiles, they could have been launched at any time.
Almost all ready-to-use warheads belonged to Russia and the US, fewer to China, however, which are constantly expanding their capabilities in this area, according to the latest study Stockholm Institute for Peace Research. A paper published on 16 June – an yearly assessment of the state of arms, disarmament and global safety – brings yet another worrying conclusion. “ Worldwide nine countries have atomic weapons and almost all of them continued in 2024 intensive modernisation programs, improving it and adding newer versions”, we read.
Less doesn't mean little.
It is worth quoting in this context another report, prepared by the global run for the Elimination of atomic Weapons (ICAN). He, too, has just been published, and the data contained in it illustrates the scale of financial efforts to keep and make atomic arsenals. And so, in 2024, planet spending on atomic weapons exceeded $100 billion. The most spent by the United States – 56.8 billion, China (12.5 billion), followed by Britain (0.4 billion), the Russian Federation (8.1 billion) and France (6.9 billion).
With specified expenses India (2.6 billion), Israel and Pakistan (1.1 billion each) and North Korea (630 million each) seem to be scarce. But the arsenals of these countries are importantly smaller, for example Israel has only 90 heads – and we must remember the differences in the purchasing power of money. For 8 billion dollars, the Russians will do and buy more at home than the Americans or the British. Let us add that arms financing in countries specified as China, North Korea and Russia is highly opaque and that the data obtained by ICAN is based on available information. In fact, Chinese or Korean spending could have been, and most likely were, higher.
Korea at final stage
But let's go back to SIPRI report. The Institute estimates that China presently has at least 600 atomic warheads, and their arsenal grows faster than in any another country. It is adequate to remind you that 3 years ago the Chinese had half the number of warheads. Pakistan maintained its current state of ownership (172 heads) in 2024, focusing on the intensive improvement of fresh systems for transferring and collecting fissile materials – a key component of atomic weapons. Israel, who launched attacks on Iran's atomic facilities a fewer days ago, killing atomic energy scientists, is in the process of upgrading its own atomic arsenal, as well as upgrading the reactor to produce plutonium in the Negew Desert, as reported by the SIPRI report.
American Boeing B-52G with AGM-86B ALCM missiles. photograph Wikipedia
In 2024, France continued to work on a third-generation atomic submarine task and a fresh aircraft maneuvering rocket designed to carry atomic warheads. "North Korea continues to treat the military atomic program as a precedence component of its national safety strategy," says the latest SIPRI study. Researchers of the institute estimation that the country has already accumulated about 50 heads and has adequate fissile material to produce 40 more. citing South Korean intelligence data from July 2024, SIPRI warns that North Korea is at the final phase of developing tactical atomic weapons.
Visions like the “Terminator”
In the mid-1980s. The 20th century number of atomic warheads worldwide was about 64,000 pieces. From this perspective, present we are dealing with a affirmative change. The thing is, after 1991, the atomic disarmament process definitely ended. The 2 largest atomic arsenal distributors – the US and Russia – stopped talking about their reduction. New START – the last existing atomic arms control treaty limiting Russian and American strategical atomic forces remains in force until early 2026 and there are no signs of negotiations to renew or replace it. As noted in the introduction to the SIPRI report, manager of the Institute Dan Smith: “Everything points to a fresh arms race that carries much more uncertainty than the erstwhile one”.
Why so much uncertainty? Due to technology, in peculiar fast improvement and expanding usage of artificial intelligence (AI). According to the first assumptions, AI was to accelerate decision making in crisis situations. present – erstwhile the technology has already come out of the phase of "rolling" – we know that this acceleration does not destruct at all, but it can even increase the hazard of atomic conflict from miscommunication, misunderstanding or method accident. How do we avoid the “Terminator” scenario, where the “stretched” computer strategy has led humanity to the brink of atomic annihilation? "There should be a red line with which all political and military leaders agree," states Dan Smith in "Deutsche Welle". According to the SIPRI Director, control systems should be constructed in specified a way that the decision to launch a atomic rocket cannot be made by artificial intelligence.’ The presumption is all right, but all atomic player wants his arsenal to be utilized before he does it “there”. This is how the field of AI is opened – and it is hard to defy this temptation.
