Anything can happen

Perhaps we will be witnessing a situation where, on Sunday at 9 p.m., erstwhile we see the first preliminary results based on exit polls, the winner will be individual another than the next day, erstwhile authoritative data will be transmitted by the State Election Commission.

You read my words on the eve of the second circular of the presidential election. It is worth briefly summing up what happened after circular one. The days that followed her were the clear advantage of Karol Nawrocki and his staff. It may have been influenced by the deficiency of consequence of Rafał Trzaskowski to the results of the vote. Simple arithmetic showed that if electorates placed to the right from Karol Nawrocki mobilized in the second circular of voting, there is simply a much greater probability that he would win the election. The centre – given the results of Holownia, Biejat or Zandberg – had a lower chance of winning.

After these two-three days, erstwhile there was inactive a case of George's bachelorette in the media, heated mainly by the environment of “Gazeta Wyborcza”, we learned from the Onet portal that Karol Nawrocki has a tattoo and that he is hiding it. Another charge, made straight by Rafał Trzaskowski, was that Karol Nawrocki supposedly ate sandwiches to his colleagues at school. You will admit that the force of “revellation” in either case or in the another case does not strike.

Just before Friday's pre-election debate on TVP, there was another “frozen blood” news that Karol Nawrocki had erstwhile participated in cheering positions. The power to destruct this information was not besides large either. It was recalled that Donald Tusk in 1 of the interviews praised that he besides attended akin “meetings” a long time ago.

Another day came – Friday, that is the debate in TVP conducted by Jacek Prusinski. It was to change what was happening in the polls. Let me remind you that not only pure arithmetic, but besides the polls after the first circular of voting indicated that Karol Nawrocki had a slight advantage over Rafał Trzaskowski. Both Nawrocki's staff and he himself hoped that the debate would let him to become a leader. Rafał Trzaskowski, on the another hand, hoped to scope a catch, a draw, and yet to take the lead in the week before the vote. In my opinion, the debate alone has not contributed much to changing preferences. She confirmed both candidates in the election decisions. For indecisive offers I did not see. Those who sit somewhere between the 2 "splemions" seem to be constantly calculating which choice will be better for them.

On Saturday, the day of Rafał Trzaskowski's visit to Toruń, he met with Sławomir Mentzen. I don't think the conversation between you 2 has contributed much either. Much more interesting in retrospect was what happened after the debate. Sławomir Mentzen has a pub in the Old Town of Toruń. There he went after talking to him Rafał Trzaskowski. Both were waiting for Radosław Sikorski, the leading politician of the civilian Coalition. It was the politicians of the Civic Coalition who invited Mentzen for beer, and he took advantage of this offer. This has, of course, been immortalized and promoted. Photographs of Radosław Sikorski, Rafał Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen sitting at 1 table, at a beer, all media went around. Given Mentzen's consequence in the first circular of elections – little than 15 percent – this was most likely a signal for any of his more liberal voters, that it might be worth supporting Rafał Trzaskowski in the second circular of voting. The gathering in Toruń caused a storm – especially among politicians and media related to the Law and Justice. They considered it treason on Mentzen's part. Representatives of liberal or leftist groups besides reacted, though not so violently.

There were marches on Sunday. In the context of the polls, they did not change anything either. And on one, and on the another march came voters already convinced and determined who they would support. The question remains how those who hesitate will react.

Last week closed, in my opinion, close to a tie between candidates. Monday's poll for Polish Radio confirmed that this is the case. According to him, Trzaskowski's advantage is only 0.5 pp., i.e. within the limits of statistical error. Given that this poll – just as the 2 erstwhile ones, namely Opinii 24 for TVN, IPSOS for TVP – performed companies that overstated the results of liberal and left-wing candidates, and subdued those who sit on the right of the center, allows Charles Nawrock to be a small optimistic – may inactive have a slight advantage of 1 pp. persists.

There's a good chance we're going to witness even more fierce competition than we did 5 years ago. At that time 20.5 million Poles voted – the advantage of Andrzej Duda over Rafał Trzaskowski was somewhat over 400 1000 votes. Now, according to my calculations, this difference is little than 200,000 in favour of Karol Nawrocki, with data from the first days of last week. Today, due to the improvement of the rankings of Rafał Trzaskowski, this difference could have decreased to up to 100,000 votes. possibly we will witness a situation in which, on Sunday at 9 p.m., erstwhile the first preliminary results will appear on the basis of exit polls, the winner will be individual another than the next day, erstwhile authoritative data will be provided by the State Election Commission.