Zieleński (or in another evidence of Zieleńskiy) and Proroschenko (here there are no problems in the Polish transcription) are the final 2 challengers in the Ukrainian presidential election (II circular on Sunday 21 April). Today, most signs point to the change and sensational triumph of Vladimir Zielenski, and consequently .... the complete unpredictability of further political destiny of Ukraine.
The next steps in the Ukrainian presidential hand can be read HERE and HERE and HERE. It is worth first of all to analyse who Vladimir Zieński is and besides to look at evolutions of perception of his people in the media, and even in political salons. Six months ago, Zieński was seen as a curiosity and a kind of joke, which happens to elections in all countries (I wrote about him analogously as a Joker), present it is simply a challenger with the top chances of triumph and a candidate, with whom the top politicians of the modern planet talk (12 April Macron gathering is planned with both Poroshenko and Zielonski). He was erstwhile referred to as a "clau and a joker", present he is more of an actor (possibly a comedy actor), a folk grandstand indicating any irregularities of the political phase or a successful media businessman. Finally, it is written about itself, which in a minute may be the president of almost 40 million states.
The first circular of elections ended with his decisive triumph over Petro Poroshenko (30 to 16%). In addition, erstwhile polls indicated triumph in specified a polled second round, and most of the candidates who occupied the next seats have an anti-Poroshenko electorate importantly (Julia Timoshenko – 3rd and almost 15 % – is an eternal rival, and Boyko – 4th and next 10% – is simply a candidate identified with a "left side" and remnants of pro-Russian sympathy (winned in the east circuits). It seems that Zieleński may be on a wave. Poroshenko's answer is to intensify the campaign, mobilise all state structures and show an alternate – a statesman and although not rather liked, but any kind of desirable stableness against something unforeseeable, without experience and appearing only in tv series and comedy presentations. The question, however, is whether it is adequate to reverse the trend, seems not entirely, and that is besides what analysts from another countries see and encourage contacts with Zielonski.
Posters "anti Poroshenko" shown by alleged nationalists – powerfully national and even far-right groups. In fact, they protest all week on Majdan and, as you can see, they want free translation of the placing of all pigs – the coworkers of Poroshenko, behind bars. Poroshenko lost their sympathy, among others, due to corruption scandals erstwhile buying weapons. As can be seen here, the run of the current president based on the slogan "Army – Speech – Faith" and powerfully accentuating national issues and focusing around Poroshenko during the wartime threat may not scope the point.
The real soul of a large part of Ukraine advocates a change, even if it is simply a change into the unknown. Convincing corruption in the political spheres is unwavering (for certain and rightly so), as an example, Ukrainian roads (full holes) are always mentioned, which cannot be renovated despite ever-increasing targeted taxes and subsidies. The deficiency of experience is irrelevant – it is crucial for individual fresh to come. Poroshenko has lost the support of many protesters in Majdan, the full Ukraine as far distant as possible from downtown Kiev, votes “everyone but him”. There are common jokes – for the last word Poroshenko “Думаи” – “Think” – in the sense of choosing a more sensible candidate, a large number of voters (especially young people) say – “and what to think – everything is clear” (in the sense of choosing Zielonski). On the another hand, the emerging mediate class is terrified and consolidates with everyone in any way related to the current government camp (to a large degree these 2 groups are identical). But it's not known if that's enough. At the moment, presidential debates were the first (in the erstwhile circular the main contenders carefully avoided them). This time, Zieński proposed a debate, but not in the studio only at the large stadium in Kiev and as a condition presented the request to examine candidates for alcohol and drugs (the rumors about alcoholism of the current president are very popular). Poroshenko, unexpectedly agreed and tested himself in just the best-equipped Olympic Center antidoping centre (negative consequence on drugs), to which Zieński responded with a study, but in a private clinic and results in 2 weeks. The debate itself is doubtful, of course, due to the fact that each candidate can drop off additional conditions, and it seems that for Zielonski it does not should be favorable despite acting and media experience (it does not talk Ukrainian besides fluently and answers to direct questions may be harder than tv spots).
Of course, 1 can ask about Poland's attitude towards elections – nothing changes here ... we do not announcement them. However, it may be worth reasoning about meetings with challengers (as the president of France does), or he can at least effort to get to know them in any way. In the context of having (a very probable scenario) a completely unknown president across the southeast border, it would be worth knowing more.
Screenplays present – 60 % Zieński, 30 % Poroshenko, 10 % mess in a settlement that a lost candidate may not recognize.
