Why has Portuguese policy become unstable and fragmented? What should we know about Portuguese politicians and their conflicts of interest? How to solve Cheg's organization problem and the emergence of populism in Portugal? And what is Portugal's attitude to the European Union today? Leszek Jażdżewski talks to Ricardo Silvestre, author and polytologist working with the European Liberal Forum (ELF).
Leszek Jażdżewski (LJ): Before moving on to the current political situation, what are the general trends affecting Portuguese politics? How would you describe the evolution of society and politics over the past 20 years? Could you briefly explain to us the political situation in Portugal today?
Ricardo Silvestre (RS): The 2008 crisis hit Portugal so hard that we had to be saved by the European Commission, the European Union and the global Monetary Fund. There were drastic austerity programmes, then led by social democrats and chadeks. The Portuguese understood very rapidly that we must put our finances in order and become more liable for our money and governance policies.
Subsequently, socialists led by Antonio Costa took over. This was a decade in which socialists did a very good job, including with the aid of the European Commission and the European Union. They have made the exact adjustments that were needed and have ensured that our country is better managed and more consistent with the criteria for EU success. This included financial stableness and economical growth.
However, there is something disturbing in Portugal that I would call "Portuguese smartness". It's the desire to be a smart guy who occasionally tries to cheat people and bypass the system. This was besides the case with Antonio Costa, whose chief of staff genuinely hid money from corruption in his office, right next to the wine boxes. It sounds besides absurd to be true, but it was. This and another scandals led to the collapse of the government in elections, the emergence of a fresh government, the fall of another government in elections and the emergence of another government. Portugal is very good at repeating these electoral cycles.
LJ: What is behind the decline in the popularity of socialists? Is it mainly due to the fact that the most popular politician was active in the scandals mentioned? Or were people dissatisfied with the cost of surviving or immigration, which seems to be a serious problem besides associated with the increasing popularity of the populist rightist Cheg party? What is the reason why this organization loses its dominant position in Portuguese politics?
RS: It is very crucial to analyse the results of the elections that led to the takeover of power by social democrats and chadeks. Therefore, it cannot be said that there has been any deterioration or fatigue in the situation of socialists, due to the fact that the centre-right was not only in power but besides did not exercise authority as well as it should have.
The Socialist organization had all the conditions to go through a cycle of power in which there were social democrats first, and now there will be socialists. However, socialists have a very bad leader – he is not charismatic, has no tv presence, nor is he good at communicating information. It is besides somewhat more left-wing than most socialist voters prefer. As a result, any electorate went from socialists to social democrats due to the fact that they did not like the then leader of the socialist party.
On the another hand, there is presently any kind of institutionalized discontent that stems from people's conviction that they live in very bad conditions and their children have no prospects. They think there's no future for them in Portugal, so you gotta go abroad.
Then comes the issue of minorities in Portugal. There is simply a subtext that derives from Fascism in Portugal, from the Salazar regime. This subtext always existed, but now it has its face. There is now a political organization with which people identify and who they vote for, but not due to the fact that it offers concrete solutions, but due to the fact that it is anti-systemic. We are observing this trend across Europe, which explains any of the results we have seen, namely the very mediocre results of socialists. They obtained 23% of the vote, while they usually gain about 30%. At the same time, we have seen a emergence in the popularity of the Chega party, which presently has 60 MPs and has about 22.7% of the vote.
All of this shows that socialists and Chega are now equal. For this reason, any electorate moves from the center of the left to the center of the right.
LJ: Why is Chega so popular? Does nostalgia return for the time of autocratic regulation in Portugal?
RS: In this area, there are 2 phenomena that happen simultaneously. 1 of them is an electorate who believes that in Salazar's time it was better, as I have heard all my life. any proceed to look back at the times of Fascism in Portugal and believe that it was a time erstwhile people knew how to behave and had any value. This kind of nostalgia is inactive strong among older voters. These people are inactive powerfully ensnared by Portugal's imagination at its best (which was not true), but that is their perception.
The second point is much more worrying. The young generation votes for the Cheg organization due to the fact that they consider this organization cool and radical, opposing the system. akin attitudes can be observed in Poland, Germany and Austria, where young people vote against their own interests. In Portugal, the Chega organization advocates a number of political solutions that can be seen in the Patriotic Group for Europe in the European Parliament, which is actually trying to take the rights of citizens and, in particular, young people.
This is simply a problem of deficiency of political knowledge, curiosity and education among younger voters. Young people presently vote for Cheg, not knowing precisely what they're voting for, and they do it either due to the fact that they saw something on TikTok, or due to the fact that they think that the event they attended, or the politician they saw, was cool. There is so much to do to effort to deal with the problem of nostalgia behind a problematic past that is popular among older people, while at the same time trying to make young voters aware that Chega is not a good choice – and that it is not a viable option for the Portuguese government.
LJ: In the last 5 years, the population of migrants in Portugal has doubled. How does immigration affect this country? What is the housing crisis – besides in the light of right-wing narratives on migration?
RS: Interestingly, during the election run there was a discussion about perception, which has penetrated not only the media, but besides the regular Portuguese conversations. The Chega organization is very good at creating an impulse of political will based solely on perception.
Indeed, there are many immigrants in Portugal. They come from Brazil, our erstwhile colonies in Africa, and now besides from the subcontinent (including Pakistan, India, or Sri Lanka). This means that there are very clear cultural differences between these people and Portuguese people. There are besides Ukrainians who came after revolutions in Ukraine. Of course, it is simply a large mix, but the crime rate is not higher due to these communities due to the fact that they do not origin disturbances – they are here in Portugal to effort to improve their quality of life. The Portuguese did the same thing. We have emigrated everywhere, especially to Europe – from Germany to England and France – trying to guarantee a better existence.
Chega tries to turn Portuguese society against this non-existent threat. On the another hand, it refuses to discuss the request for immigrants in certain professions that the Portuguese do not want to do, or due to the fact that we request money for our social strategy or for taxes, or due to the fact that they are entrepreneurs. We are so in a very unfair position due to the fact that this perception dominates debate and electoral tendencies. At the same time, we do not go into detail, and that is precisely what shows that migration is very crucial to Portugal.
Furthermore, the Portuguese Government is besides to blame, which did not guarantee a better conduct of migration processes. There is an organization active in migration, but it is fatal – it is badly managed, it makes 1 mistake after another, and the solution to the problems takes centuries. If you are an immigrant and you apply for any licence to stay in Portugal, you gotta wait many years, and then everything changes and you gotta start all over again. The problem is that we do not know how to solve these problems ourselves, through good policies and governance.
LJ: In the last 5 years, the population of migrants in Portugal has doubled. How does immigration affect Portugal? How does the housing crisis do this – besides in the light of right-wing narratives on migration?
RS: Interestingly, during the election run there was a debate on perception that permeated not only the media but besides people's conversations. The Chega organization is very good at creating an impulse of political will based solely on perception.
Indeed, there are many immigrants in Portugal. They come from Brazil, our erstwhile colonies in Africa, and now from the subcontinent (including Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka). This means that there are very clear cultural differences between these people and Portuguese people. There are besides Ukrainians who came after revolutions in Ukraine. Of course, this is simply a large mix, but the crime rate is not higher due to these communities, due to the fact that they do not origin disturbances – they are here in Portugal to effort to guarantee a better life. The Portuguese did the same. We have emigrated everywhere, especially to Europe – from Germany to England and France – trying to guarantee a better life for ourselves.
Chega tries to turn Portuguese society against this non-existent threat. On the another hand, it refuses to discuss the request for immigrants in certain professions that the Portuguese do not want to do, or due to the fact that we request money for our social safety strategy or for taxes, or due to the fact that they are entrepreneurs. We are so in a very unfair position due to the fact that this perception dominates debate and election intentions. At the same time, we do not go into detail, and that is precisely what shows that migration is very crucial to Portugal.
Furthermore, the Portuguese Government is besides to blame, which did not guarantee a better conduct of migration processes. There is an organization active in migration, but it is fatal – it is badly managed, it makes 1 mistake after another, and the solution to the problems takes centuries. If you are an immigrant and apply for any licence to stay in Portugal, you gotta wait many years and then everything changes and you gotta start all over again. The problem is that we do not know how to solve these problems ourselves, through good policy and good governance.
LJ: Portuguese have always been very pro-European. How has this attitude changed in fresh years? How does Portugal see its function in the European Union? How does the fact that Portuguese statesmen and politicians are popular with another European leaders affect the perception of the European Union in Portugal?
RS: Fortunately, the level of satisfaction with membership of the European Union is very advanced in Portugal. Portuguese like the European Union, like to be In The European Union, be part of this project. Of course, this is mainly related to the money that becomes available to us. But our European side of our identity is besides involved. We turn very easy to the continent, even if we have good transatlantic relations, and there is Brazil and Africa, but we are Europeans at heart.
Turning to politics, it is truly depressing that this satisfaction is not reflected in the political awareness of people. At least 22% of our neighbours vote for the Cheg organization or left, in peculiar for communists and fresh communists who are opponents of EU projects. The same happened in Poland, which is 1 of the countries with a higher level of participation in EU projects, and voters nevertheless elected a president who opposes this European task as such.
It truly amazes me erstwhile I talk to people about why they are voting for a political organization that wants to enter the European Parliament and transform the European Union task thoroughly? This is besides the case for Cheg in the Partioci group for Europe.
The Chega organization obtained 2 MPs outside Portuguese circles. These are people who emigrated from Portugal to another countries in search of a better life. They are voting for a political organization that tries to send another people back to Portugal in search of a better life. This paradox reflects a certain inconsistency, this antinomism in relations between Portugal and the remainder of the world, and in peculiar Europe.
All this makes me want to work even harder. We gotta change that. We must effort to change the current situation.
Podcast is besides available on platforms Sound, Apple Podcast, Stitcher and Spotify
Dr. Olga Łabendowicz translated from English
Read English at 4liberty.eu
