10...9...8... end! The countdown to the end of 1 of the stupidest campaigns we remember, and the results exit poll They will tell us who turned out to be her (at least the first round) winner. So it is besides time to effort to make a summary. Not the results, due to the fact that the minute I compose this text, it's besides soon. However, the conclusions and lessons of the past months can now be summarised. Sometimes they are besides for political commentators and all of us who survey it, rather subversive conclusions and humility lessons.
Thus, and the summaries that treat the shallowness of the run dispute not as a reason for discouragement and cynicism towards the politics and level of our debate - but as a challenge.
Come on in!
PO-PiS truly exists and is in peace with us.
Throughout the years, the diagnosis that PO and PiS were only 2 wings of 1 actually ruling Polish party, which staged the dispute the more brutal and vulgar, the little different they were, was considered to be a feat of publicist-intelligent eccentricism. A kind of heresy against the sanctified traditions and customs of truth. And the guards of this dispute and the priests practicing the ritual of throwing into the eternal fire of the Polish-Polish war, could not let this heresy to pierce the ears of the faithful. This would endanger the collapse of the full building of religion and the rite built around Anti-Kaczism and Anti-Tuscism. due to the fact that this ragged conflict guaranteed that as long as it lasted - and the fire burned - so long its participants would exchange power.
Today, in order to deny this further, it is essential to be ill-willed, spiritual blind or ignorant of numbers and facts - which confirm this “heretic” intuition. Not only Prime Minister Tusk rules the next year with the program Jarosław Kaczyński (about what I wrote extensively on the anniversary of the election in the “Common Week”But we went 1 step further. The challenge is to find crucial programme differences between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, who are no longer just avatars of their parties and their leaders, but 2 incarnations of the same organization of "healthy reason" of the global right. And at the same time the Polish organization of the measurement which there is not so much of a program of its own, as it tries to capture the largest possible part of the political scene for which a common denominator can be found and not be allowed to circumvent the Confederate from the right.
It is not by chance on the run pages of Rafał Trzaskowski in the "My Plan for Poland" tab, alternatively of the social programme of the presidency, a board with the slogan "healthy sense" in social life, and a list of postulates that make this "healthy sense" The candidate starts by taking 800+ distant children from Ukraine whose parents do not work in Poland.
Of course on this – and the passwords borrowed from Trump – the list of common points of both camps does not end, on the contrary. From the construction of CPKs and fortifications at the border; by moving distant from the Green Deal, opposition to the Migration Pact or fresh free trade agreements (such as the EU-Mercosur), evidence investments in reinforcements and the race for the grace and interest of the American protector, promises to keep advanced benefits for Poles and to limit them for foreigners and migrants (which we besides promise to limit), protection of Polish agriculture and the transport manufacture from Ukrainian and not only competition, support of ownership as a basic way of working towards greater availability of housing, to the restoration of the Saski Palace and a gesture-based abroad policy made under the national receiver, - who will say today, is it the PiS or PO programme? And what's the difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki?
...but the same PO-PiS shrinks.
At the same time, as researchers and observers remind us, the participation of PO-PiS candidates in these elections towards the remainder of the stakes is decreasing. The poll results before silence indicated that candidates would gotta share a number of votes representing 57% of crucial votes, compared with 73.96% in the first circular of the 2020 presidential election and 68.51% in 2015. Today, PO and PiS candidates collect less votes in the absence of a strong 3rd candidate (like Paweł Kukiz in 2015 and Szymon Hołownia and Krzysztof Bosak in 2020) than in erstwhile elections, and their support is likewise equalized - both parties almost tie - which in 2015. Paradoxically, this is the result... of the weakening of the Law and Justice, who, even losing the election in 2023, enjoyed more support than present (but besides the PO gained little).
The PO-PiS dispute involves an increasingly elder electorate - which besides shows the following illustration - but besides drags down the coalitions of Prime Minister Tusk. Its apparent beneficiary is the Confederate, which will one more time increase in the context of the "self-return" and replaces the 3rd Road as a real 3rd force in Polish politics. The tendencies that inflated the Confederate in 2023 – the reluctance to receive benefits and allegedly corking Ukrainian NFZs, the anger for wellness contributions, the desire to push distant from each another the sacrifices related to war, inflation and energy transformation - is equally valid in 2025. Therefore, all candidates “They invitation us to Neverland”... (where the actual Peter Pan rules among the candidates below)
3. So erstwhile he's scared, he's after a Confederate voter.
And if so - and the Confederate has a twelve percent support - the another candidates, in peculiar the 2 poll leaders, decided to race while demonizing Menzten and convincing that they would be better Menzten than the original.
On the 1 hand, proving that the candidate of the Confederation represents everything that is worst in Polish politics, but at the same time has good ideas in the field of taxation, social contributions and benefits, wellness protection, regulations, relations with the EU and Ukraine, that it is worth presenting as its own. Like Schrodinger's cat political demagoguery - the worst of all a candidate who is so good that everyone would like to be him. At 1 point in this race, Rafał Trzaskowski's staff were not only “growling” but he spoke with all the sentences and stole the wording from Sławomir Mentzen's run - in this he announced the programs “Two Behind One” and “EU PLUS ZERO” from Mentzen's program in... the same words as Menzten... as HIS.
This is another rerun from the year 2023 and a run in which another committees attempted to bargain a Confederate voter by taking her language, postulates and program. It was then successful, due to the fact that a week before the election the media panic, saying that Holownia could fall under the threshold, helped push the 3rd Way from above, but besides the bidding on it, then who would more effectively reduce the “written publishing”, “social” and “the thieves' effects of the Polish order” truly worked. It might be a small different today, because...
4. erstwhile the full stake moves to the right, there is area for the Left.
The decision of the full stake to the right - from the rapidly abandoning in the election run an intelligent suit from the capital of Rafał Trzaskowski, to uncover itself as a fan of disco-polo, pickles and cannonohabic; to the participation in the election of Grzegorz Braun and the paleo-right candidacy of Karol Nawrocki - had a perverse effect. It turned out that this created a place on the left and freed the margin for not one, but 2 candidates. And the division of the Left did not harm, but helped. Collecting 11% in polls before the elections of Zandberg and Biejat not only jump the poll of the left. At the same time, they show that the "two-left" - government and anti-government - strategy brings a dividend of support in these elections, and the left is able to break distant from the taboo so far and - which seemed impossible - to fight for the votes of the Confederate...
As I wrote a fewer days ago: The investigation shows that in a group of young Poles candidates of the POLIS do not only lose. They lose importantly to 2 candidates, whose groups have a full of 3 times little support than PO and Law and Justice. 1 of these parties barely crossed the threshold (Confederation 7% in the 202rd election), and the another 1 did not (and it is not known if it will win in the future).
The reasons for this can be explained clearly. besides these (apparently impossible!) electoral declarations - and many online comments - people declaring that they scope between Zandberg and Mentzen, or Mentzen and Zandberg. Although both of them stand on other poles of Polish politics in terms of taxes, NFZ, attitude towards the EU or the function of the state, they besides stand (together) other 2 parties exchanging power for 20 years and in strong opposition to Prime Minister Tusk's government. 1 and the another speaks in the eyes of indecisive voters sincerely and in accordance with his own convictions - not having to explain mistakes or unpopular decisions of current or erstwhile governments. no of these 2 - and even more Zandberg - have the problem to go against not only the views of the PO or the Law and Justice, but those lost from over a 4th century of slogans of Polish politics. To put it simply and briefly, they can both say that it is not to be as Tusk or Kaczyński wants, but rather differently.And aside from the programming issues (which in the presidential election are both second-, or third-rate) there are inactive issues of feeling - or "swab" - which are accompanied by these candidates. For individual whose main motivation to take an interest in politics is to show the ruling class that it despises it - the energy of the “tablers”, which Menzten and Zandberg bring is highly magnetic.
5. Be caring what you want for...
Before the elections and the campaign, any complained about the deficiency of debates and the anticipation of clashing candidates in the pluralist form possible. Today... Well, I guess the old saying of wishes that can come actual is getting real.
More shortly - supplement after results!
