Can Rafał Trzaskowski number on taking over part of the electorate of the centre-right? That's 1 to assume, since he's been trying to be a conservative for weeks. "These actions can origin discouragement and departure from Trzaskovsky voters express left-wing and large-town people who may feel left out" – he evaluates in the conversation with the portal inPoliticy.pl Dr Tomasz Żukowski. Sociologist from the University of Warsaw does not regulation out that in order to halt the decline trend Trzaskowski and the ruling coalition will effort to make even greater social confusion. “I am afraid that the rulers may inactive have the authority to do so,” adds our speaker.
Rafał Trzaskowski has been pushing his run right for weeks. Pretending to be a Conservative, he ensures that he takes care of farmers and opposes the EU-Mercosur agreement. He announces that he is an economical patriot, although the Warsaw town hall he led buys German trees, Chinese buses and Korean trams. He was to change his head on the CPK and Ukraine's entry into the EU and NATO. He even likes the grant of 800+ The Ukrainians, though the ruling coalition last year voted against specified a eventuality. He late appeared with disco star Zenon Martyniuk.
It is most likely the election staff that advises Rafał Trzaskowski to search voters to the right from his electorate, that is, to the centre-right and outside the large cities in alleged region Poland. due to the fact that Trzaskowski talks about these matters besides in smaller cities, it all consists of a logical whole
– says Dr Tomasz Żukowski in an interview with the portal inPoliticy.pl.
The left-wing women leave Trzaskovsky
An effort to get a centre-right electorate may consequence in a different effect from the intended one.
This kind of action gives of course any chance to increase support, although in this case, specified an effect is not visible at the moment. It's gonna take a couple more weeks to figure it out. No less, specified moves entail a hazard of counterproductive effects for each candidate. They may origin discouragement and departure from Trzask's electorate expressively left-wing and large-town, who may feel left out. They may consider that their viewpoint is ignored. That is why specified a move, although it seems reasonable, is rather risky and infinite must bring the expected effect by the election staff. fresh investigation shows that women left behind leave Trzaskovsky
“ Our caller is judging. However, in the case of Rafał Trzaskowski, there is simply a fundamental question about the consistency of his image and credibility.
If what the candidate says deviates from erstwhile views, it can clearly be exhibited by another run participants and become subject to various types of entries and memes. However, the fundamental question is whether this change of views is made by the candidate in a skillful or little skillful manner. In the second case, the hazard of hitting it will be much greater
“ says a sociologist from the University of Warsaw.
We have respective different polls and they all showed the same trend: the right gains, and the liberal-left camp loses. At the same time, the distance between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki decreases. 1 of the polls that concerns the second circular indicates that it is only 5 points. By following a small football trail, you could say that's actually 3 points of difference. It is adequate that in the second circular 1 candidate should give the another just these 3 points and order at the top changes
“Dr. Żukowski tells us that the tiny difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrock will motivate the ruling camp to take even utmost action.
Since the results of these polls have been known for a good fewer days, it must be assumed that the ruling camp has already taken any action to reverse this trend. On the 1 hand, it is an effort to search the favour of the centre-right voters. On the another hand, the start of another offensive, which defines a political dispute in terms of prosecutorial-police. I mean, for example, preparing charges for erstwhile Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. This besides shows yesterday's message by Prime Minister Donald Tusk that many thieves and gangsters admire politicians and candidates of the Law and Justice. This is an effort to curb their downward support trends.
“ Dr. Żukowski says.
Will Tusk's coalition origin further social confusion?
It cannot be excluded that increasing support for Karol Nawrocki will make among politicians of the Civic Platform a conviction of the request to origin any large social shock.
I'm afraid the rulers may inactive have the most authoritative moves. This is evidenced by fresh statements by Mr Adam Bodnar, who announced that the consequence of the presidential elections would be more crucial than the "citizens' opinion" of Marshal Szymon Holownia, for the sake of the Polish people
— evaluates the interviewer of the portal atPoliticyka.pl.
I have the impression that there is inactive a conviction in that camp that there is simply a request to mention to prosecutor-police tools. They're going this way clearly. They are convinced that specified action is comfortable and counteracts the erosion of the ruling coalition, which clearly differs internally. Each of these groups has a candidate in the presidential election. This for the full coalition means launching centrifugal processes, due to the fact that that is the logic of political rivalry. The origin associated with the alleged settlement of predecessors can be considered a consolidating coalition and this is what many of their politicians say
“ Dr. Tomasz Żukowski tells us.
Such a shock may be a more decisive blow to the president of the National Bank of Poland, Prof. Adam Glapiński. However, our caller says it will not be that simple.
We remember the words of strong people who are to bring out the president of the NBP. Since then, however, small has happened, and at the same time the leaders of the banking planet from Europe stood in the defence of president Adam Glapiński. What they surely do not want is to legitimise the actions of governments in conflict with the banking environment. The impact of specified actions would be highly negative for them and for this reason banks defend the president of the NBP
— reminds the sociologist from the University of Warsaw.
What, then, is expected in the close future?
When trying to foretell the future, you gotta remember that the dividing lines between the widely understood right-wing camp and the left-liberal camp are comparatively stable. These trenches have been dug rather deeply, and their shifting is difficult. This is confirmed by the results of subsequent elections over the last 10 years. Therefore, the ongoing offensive of the right may decision a fewer more points towards these main trenches, but then the substance will require fresh programme proposals and actions. The economical situation of Poland and the worsening situation of Poles who already say that they live worse than in the days of the Morawiecki government will besides weigh here. At the same time, life prospects are not good at all
“Dr. Żukowski is forecasting that it is crucial for the situation in Europe to win Donald Trump and his fresh presidency.
The question remains how the planet situation will affect all of this. Apart from the issues of war in Ukraine, I mean a possible decision to Europe on a larger scale of conservative trend that led to Donald Trump's win in the US
— concludes Dr. Tomasz Żukowski.
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