Ukraine gained a strong leverage against Russia thanks to its success in the Black Sea. However, as experts warn, Donald Trump may weaken Kiev's position by pushing for a fast peace agreement even at the expense of concessions to Moscow. We read about this on 11 April in Volodymyr Krawchenko's analysis, an epsert Mirror of the Week.
In March, following Trump's telephone conversation with Putin, preliminary negotiations were held on the ceasefire in the Black Sea. Although Ukraine agreed not to usage military force there, the formal agreement was not signed. Meanwhile, Russia is attempting to usage these talks to enforce concessions, demanding, among others, the abolition of sanctions on its agricultural and banking sector, including the disconnection of the "Rossielchozbank" from SWIFT.
The Ukrainian Navy effectively reduced the possible of the Black Sea Fleet – about 1/3 of its ships were destroyed. This allowed Kiev to resume export of grain without Moscow's permission, which became 1 of the fewer successes of Ukraine during the war. However, Ukraine is afraid that the ceasefire agreement can be utilized by Russia to mines approaches to ports, inspect ships or reconstruct military possible – besides through Turkey's possible beginning of Bosfor and Dardanele Straits.
According to experts, the US should not accept Russian demands without strong safety guarantees for Ukraine. "Black Sea is 1 of Ukraine's last assets in talks with Russia. We cannot let him to be squandered by Trump's political ‘kindness’," quotes Alexander Chara of the Defence strategy Centre.
Source: ZN
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