The Civic Coalition maintains leadership position, but the current ruling strategy would not be able to form a majority - according to a survey by United Surveys by IBRIS. The problem for Donald Tusk's group is mediocre coalition ratings and expanding support for right-wing communities, including Grzegorz Braun's party.
A survey conducted for Virtual Poland indicates that if elections were held soon, the Civic Coalition would win against 31.5 percent result However, this is simply a decrease of 1.3 percent points compared to the erstwhile measurement. Second place would be the Law and Justice which supports 25.1% of respondents (a decrease of 1.6 percent points).
A key conclusion from the survey is, however, the situation of the current KO coalitions. Only the Left of The consequence is 7.2 percent. Outside the parliament there would be groups forming the 3rd Road: Polish People's organization obtained in a 4.9 percent survey, a Poland 2050 Only 1.0 percent. The electoral threshold would besides not exceed Total organization (2.4%).
Parliamentary poll. The success of the 2 letters of the Confederacy
The survey included a launch option for 2 separate lists of Confederate environments. This experimentation brought amazing results. The main Confederation obtained 12.1 percent support, whereas the Confederation of the Polish Crown led by Grzegorz Braun She won 8.1% of the vote.
SEE: Poland divided almost in half in the fresh poll. Opposition Chance
Experts pay attention to the flow of electorate. Politologists indicate that the Law and Justice are systematically losing voters who are transferring their support to both sections of the Confederacy.
Change of power in the Sejm
The simulation of the allocation of seats, based on the results of the poll, shows a complete redevelopment of the political scene. The mandates would be as follows:
- Civil Coalition: 190 mandates
- Law and Justice: 147 mandates
- Confederation: 61 mandates
- Confederation of the Polish Crown: 34 mandates
- Left: 28 mandates
Such a division means the failure of power by the current ruling camp. A possible coalition of KOs and Left would have Total by 218 votes, which is an insufficient number to get a vote of assurance (required 231 votes).
The only script allowing the creation of a majority government would be the agreement of a broad right-wing block. Coalition of Law and Justice and both Confederate Formations 242 mandates, which would let an effective takeover of power.
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