Marek Wakez from Strategy&Future warns that Kiev is preparing for a long-term war, while western weapons resources are shrinking. For Poland it is an emergency signal: without their own ammunition production and strong air defence, European solidarity declarations may prove besides weak against Russian pressure.
A War That Can't End
The analyst Strategy&Future Marek Wakes up in the podcast of Virtual Poland “Without Doctrine” presented a grim image of the continuation of the war in Ukraine. In an interview with Zbigniew Parafianovich and Marek Magierowski, he pointed out that Kiev is preparing for a conflict extended for years. At the same time, supplies of weapons in the West are decreasing. This gulf of circumstances straight affects Poland, due to the fact that our country lies on the east flank of NATO and itself needs effective cover of heaven.
Political declarations must not be confused with real combat capabilities. An interceptor's rocket, artillery shell or an efficient anti-aircraft defence set shall only substance if they are available in an appropriate number. If the war takes longer than expected by planners, even the most modern equipment does not solve the problem of stock consumption.
American aid has its limits
For decades Europe has utilized an American safety umbrella, limiting any of its own industrial capacity. During the peace period, specified a model seemed comfortable. The war in Ukraine exposed his primary weakness: the United States has their own obligations, their own priorities and limited warehouses. They are not an inexhaustible weaponry for the full free world.
For Warsaw there is simply a simple conclusion. The alliance with the United States remains a pillar of Polish security, but the liable state does not build a defence on the presumption that the partner will always complete any lack. Poland must be able to fight its own resources from the first day of the crisis and hold its ability to act even erstwhile deliveries from abroad are delayed.
Polish air defence under pressure
The origin of the study highlights the hard situation of the Polish air defence system. It's an area where it's not adequate to shop. We request supplies of effectors, trained crews, reconnaissance, logistics and national service capabilities. all link has to work.
The temptation to present current needs as a choice between Ukraine's assistance and Poland's safety is peculiarly dangerous. Russian aggression in Ukraine is simply a threat to us too, but the Polish authorities are liable first for defending their own territory and citizens. Aid must so go with the fast re-enactment of the equipment transferred and the expansion of national stocks. Otherwise, good intentions turn into a strategical gap.
European manufacture alternatively of further promises
European countries request multi-annual contracts to enable manufacturers to grow production lines. They besides request common standards where it makes sense to operate. However, this must not mean subjecting Polish purchases to the interests of the largest capitals of the European Union. Cooperation is useful if it strengthens Poland's ability to defend and does not bring us to the function of the client of Western companies.
The Polish arms manufacture should receive unchangeable orders, access to technology and conditions for expanding production. The money spent on safety is besides to work for national plants, engineering skills and jobs. Dependence on 1 supplier, even an allied one, always creates political and logistical risks.
The end of strategical carelessness
The informing of exhausting arsenals is not an argument for concessions to Russia. On the contrary. It shows the price of many years of negligence and the request to rebuild real force. Moscow tests the resilience of the West, hoping for the fatigue of societies, political disputes and shortages of weapons.
Security of cities, continuity of the economy and freedom to make their own decisions are at stake for Poles. A Europe that cannot produce self-defence means remains dependent on individual else's will. Poland cannot wait for another crisis to show voidness in magazines. Restoration of stocks and the defence manufacture must become a sustainable state policy, resistant to changing governments and an electoral calendar.
Source: WP News
