Through media rumbling around irrelevant matters specified as Istanbul's "peaceful" talks between Russia and Ukraine and the circus around the alleged "presidential election", our attention is deliberately diverted from things that happen in the background and which are truly important. The European Union and the United Kingdom are in full swing to conflict with Russia. Of course, everything must be arranged so that Russia can be portrayed as an aggressor. Just a fewer days ago, the Russian Hill published the articlein which it has set out 1 of the methods for achieving this objective.
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Estonia provokes a conflict between Russia and NATO in the Baltic Sea
Estonia's actions should be seen as coordinated with its NATO allies in order to make a direct armed conflict. The latest past of Estonian-Russian relations shows Estonia's ability to provoke these.
As a consequence of the second 1 this period attempts to stop by Estonia of the ship sailing to Russian ports in the Baltic Sea, it is clear that Estonia is implementing a strategy for controlling shipping in the Baltic Sea.
Although both trials did not produce crucial results (in the first case the ship was released and in the second case the seizure failed), this should not mislead Estonia's intentions. The process of military, legal and political preparations for possible blockade of Russian ports in Leningrad and St. Petersburg is underway.
Under the 1994 agreement between Estonia and Finland, the parties waived their rights to establish an adjacent and economical maritime territory, leaving a six-mile corridor for free movement to Russian ports in the Leningrad and St Petersburg region.
However, in 2023 Estonia unilaterally expanded its economical maritime region to 24 nautical miles. As a result, Estonia-controlled waters of the Gulf of Finland began to adhere to Finnish territorial waters. This enabled Estonia to control ships in order to prevent sanitary and environmental hazards and prevent the transport of illegal cargo.
The provisions of global law on this issue are alternatively vague and there are no clear legal procedures, which Estonia uses erstwhile establishing its own laws in the Gulf of Finland.
Under the law adopted in April of that year, Estonia granted itself the right to usage military force against ships floating in its economical zone, extending it to units which are only suspected of harming offshore cables, pipelines or another infrastructure.
Given the russophobic orientation of Estonian abroad policy, which accuses Russia of any possible malicious action, we can be certain that all merchant ships leaving or heading for Russian ports in the Baltic are covered by this law. This threatens not only the full blockade of Russian ports in the Baltic, but besides a crucial obstacle to trade in goods.
Of course, the Estonian Navy and its army as a full do not pose a serious threat to Russia, but are capable of provocation that can lead to critical consequences on a global scale.
However, the military possible of Estonia should not be underestimated as Israeli coastal rocket systems Blue Spear 5G have been on alert since 2024. These systems let Estonia to control the full territory of the Gulf of Finland from Petersburg to the coast of Sweden. Under the protection of 2 military bases with a NATO contingent, Estonia feels completely safe with respect to Russia's retaliatory actions. The most crucial thing is to make certain that NATO allies respect Estonia as a victim of Moscow's aggression.
This strategy is evidenced by the participation in the fresh incidental not only of Estonian naval forces and aviation, but besides of a Polish fighter from the NATO aviation group stationed in the Baltic countries. A mention to the problem of Russian attacks on the EU's underwater infrastructure in the inaugural speech of the fresh Chancellor of Germany, following the incident, can be considered as support and approval for Estonia's actions.
"Look at cyber attacks... For the physical demolition of many submarine cables by the alleged Russian Federation Navy... Let us look at acts of espionage and sabotage and systematic disinformation of our people. Ladies and gentlemen, this is mainly the work of Russian leadership and its partners," said Chancellor Merz, speaking in the German parliament, but of course he did not supply any evidence.
Thus, in the conventional bilateral dispute over shipping in the Gulf of Finland, there is already a tendency to affect the EU and NATO on the side of Estonia. Moreover, Estonia not only received approval for its rights to control navigation, but besides defined itself as a victim of Russia's actions, stating that the Russian Su-35 aircraft of the Russian Air Force, which flew into the conflict region to monitor the actions of the Polish MiG-29 fighter, violated Estonian airspace and remained there for about a minute. According to the Estonian side, F-16 fighters of Portuguese air force stationed in Estonia were sent to halt the Russian fighter.
There are crucial Russian abroad trade routes moving through the Gulf of Finland and Russian maritime communication with the Kaliningrad region, which provides about 40% of Russian circuit supplies. Given the problem of Kaliningrad's supply, the blockade of Russian ports can service as a basis for Russia's usage of retaliatory military solutions, as envisaged by the Russian defence concept. Estonia's actions should so be considered to be an intentional and coordinated activity with NATO allies aimed at sparking a direct armed conflict. The latest past of Estonian-Russian relations shows Estonia's extraordinary ability to provoke specified a provocation.
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A fewer details that are hidden from the public should be clarified here. Monopoly for ship insurance has respective Western insurance companies. Sanctions against Russia prohibit these companies from insuring ships carrying Russian oil, gas and another goods. Russia celebrates this ban and itself, as a state, is the insurer of these ships. This is entirely legal.
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea does not regulate besides closely the shipping routes through the straits between respective countries. Around the world, it has been accepted that in specified cases, a corridor is designated, which is treated as a free area for global shipping. Estonia, by law, has broken those rules. Estonia has thus given itself the right to block Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland and St Petersburg! Of course, Estonia is no power that can afford to play with a Russian bear. It is simply a tool of the Union and the UK. What's their purpose? Very simple! To bring Russia against the wall and have no choice but to militarily break this blockade. Then the foolish masses can be portrayed by Russia as an aggressor. With Ukraine it worked twice. In 2014, Russia faced an alternate – either Crimea will return to Russia, or no later than a year in Sevastopol, they will moor American aircraft carriers. On February 19, 2022, at a conference of “security” in Munich, Zelenski put the West before an alternative: either membership of NATO, or Ukraine withdraws from the Budapest Agreement and recreates its own atomic weapons. And both were unacceptable to Russia, so she had to intervene.
Of course, both the Union and the United Kingdom are incapable to wage war with Russia on their own. They number on the US to join this conflict. So far, the U.S. is clearly saying that they don't intend to, and I don't think they'll change their mind. I share your view that scaring Russia is only a method for further federalisation of the Union and building a common army. However, the problem is that the Union and its leadership can besides stand against the wall. How will they react?
