- Trump's global policy? — It will be transactional, as follows: “to be a deal”. In addition, there are declarations which are marked by the desire to review borders, which is part of the logic of the behaviour of the 19th century powers,” says Prof. Mierzejewski
- With this scenario, smaller players like Europe are lost and multilateral alliances specified as the European Union and NATO are lost in importance
- The expert outlines a script in which America proposes the India deal. This puts Russia and China in a very hard position
- Chinese-Russian relations are based on the presumption that if 1 side falls, the another side besides has interior problems. If America pushes Russia hard due to oil prices, Putin’s fall may begin — he says
- For more information, visit the Onetu homepage
According to The Economist, well-informed officials in America, China and Europe talk about the G2 talks (US-China) and how far they can go. Trump signals that is ready to make deals with Xi Jinping.
Is specified a turn of America toward China truly possible? Prof. Dominik Mierzejewski, Head of the Centre for Asian Affairs of the University of Łódź emphasizes that the answer to this question is very difficult. But he notes: “We are dealing with actors who began to match each other.
We go back 2 centuries.
The expert thus makes it clear that the global American policy under Donald Trump will be different from that of his predecessor, Joe Biden. — It will be transactional, as follows: “to be a deal”. In addition, there are declarations that are marked by the desire to review borders, which is part of the logic of the behaviour of the 19th century powers,” she notes.
— To date, the United States has been comparatively predictable. The axis of the democratic abroad policy has oscillated around multilateral, multilateral cooperation, says Onet.
— I do not know whether the "deal" between the US and China is possible. On the another hand, a certain trajectory of American politics fits into the trajectory of Chinese activities, which are based on widely understood bilateral relations. For good, partners from multilateral organizations, specified as the European Union or even the North Atlantic Alliance, are little important,” he adds.
America is proposing a deal to India. This is simply a troublesome script for Russia and China.
The expert believes that the key question is: how much does Trump request to be like Chinese to compete with them?
“ Trump is primarily about building the competitiveness of the American economy. If we take Trump's January 20 speech, we see that the Americans will strengthen the production of oil and natural gas, which they are the largest maker in the world. In this way they will want to compete with the Green Transformation and it will be the component that aims to make Americans more attractive to global capital and talent that come to the United States than China.
Prof. Mierzejewski emphasizes that America has various possibilities of cooperation on the global arena, and thus different ways of indirectly influencing China and straight Russia.
— Imagine the script that Americans offer India cheaper natural resources than Russia. Thus, Washington may exclude Russian contractors in global oil markets. If that happens, the Russians have a large problem. due to the fact that in general, the prices of natural materials are the main origin of subsidizing the war in Ukraine. Thus Trump can cut this war spiral a small short, fulfilling his electoral promise here. Moving on, it will make tensions in Chinese-Russian relations, due to the fact that the Russians in this constellation, which is rather logical, will effort to sale more oil to China, he says.
America's gonna make concessions on Taiwan?
He says: “The Chinese-Russian relations are based on the presumption that if 1 side falls, the another side besides has interior problems. And if America pushes Russia hard due to oil prices, Putin's fall could begin. For the authoritarian Chinese governments, this means that this global partner, who has been so pressured over the past decade or longer, simply loses meaning. And people start asking questions besides in the Communist organization of China: what was it for?
However, if Trump had chosen another alliance, what could he offer the Chinese? Could he sacrifice Taiwan for business?
The expert is convinced that the Americans will not agree to China's takeover of Taiwan. In his opinion, the stakes here are different. “The Chinese are not yet ready to change the position quo in East Asia. The Taiwan case is closely linked to the situation on the Korean Peninsula. But Americans may be forced by the Chinese to admit the slogan "not for Taiwan's independence". This may happen in the area of signing another joint communication on bilateral relations, but it is simply a long way to go. possibly specified a declaration from America will prompt the Chinese to put more force on the Russian Federation to close the conflict in Ukraine.
Vietnamese kind Donald Trump
Onetu’s talker emphasizes that this is only 1 possible scenario. “ Inside the American administration there are different ideas about relations with China, although of course the president is the dominant figure,” he says.
According to onetu, the U.S. president uses a maneuver that can be described colloquially: misleading. “This policy in strategical Chinese culture is simply a dogma. We do not know whether Trump throws his declarations to the wind or whether they will materialize.
Prof. Mierzejewski sees Trump's policy akin to that of America from the 1970s, under the leadership Richard Nixon and his advisor Henry Kissinger. He cites an example of a political concept called Vietnameseization. “ During the Vietnam War, Richard Nixon introduced specified a concept, which was to shed greater burden on arms spending on partners in Southeast Asia. From the position of tiny and medium-sized countries, this can be rather dangerous. Taiwan was disfellowshipped from the UN in 1971 due to the fact that it was Kissinger's line to influence Russia by getting along with China, he recalls.
— I don't want to be a bad omen here, but Taiwan may be the victim of a large player relation for the second time. This is besides a signal to all tiny and medium-sized countries that there may be a return to specified a transactional, 19th century model of policy.
— What should we then do in Europe? due to the fact that we are the tiny and average ones. What are the ASEANs expected to do? What will Japan do? What will South Korea do? How much is all this happening now going to affect the redefining of this polyber model of the world?
