Since the beginning of July, Latvia has seen a crucial increase in illegal attempts to cross the border with Belarus. This means continuing Belarusian hybrid activities utilizing migration despite reducing akin force on Poland and Lithuania.
What are the Belarusian hybrid actions against Latvia?
Belarus has utilized migration since 2021 as a tool for hybrid action against Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. The aim is to make chaos on the east flank of NATO and the EU, as well as to test the reaction and unity of the alliance. In fresh years Belarus has transferred the burden of migration force to Latvia, which by 21 July of that year saw 8413 attempts to illegally cross the border (within 2025 there were 12 046). Migrants come mainly from the mediate East and Sub-Saharan Africa. The force is expanding during the election run in Latvia, where migration is 1 of the main topics. During the same period on the Polish-Belarusian border There have been more than 260 trials, and on Lithuanian-Belarusian - Over 950. Belarus is besides trying to make a dispute between Latvia and Lithuania by demonstrating the inability of Latvian services to safe the territory of the State. About Latvian border protection problems Belarus besides communicates information in its Polish-language media.
How does Latvia safe borders, and what are the challenges?
The Belarusian-Latin border is the shortest section of the EU border with Belarus, with a dimension of 173 km (compared to 418 km with Poland and 679 km with Lithuania). Latvia has not yet built a barrier on this border – the barrier itself finished in July 2024, but the remainder of the infrastructure, including monitoring systems and sensors, is to be built by the end of this year or later. This episode is hard to safe due to extended wetlands, dense forests, and for 16.6 km runs the River Dzwina, besides utilized to flush off contraband. At the same time, the Latvian State Border defender (VSR) faces human resources and under-financing problems. After beginning in 2021, Belarusian hybrid activities utilizing VSR migrants were supported by the military and police. At the same time, the Ministry of Defence opposes the army being constantly active in the border protection mission, pointing to staff shortages and the request to keep combat preparedness. In doing so, it does not exclude the assignment of conscripts to specified tasks.
Latvian-Belarusian border. photograph by Valsts robežsardze (Latov Border Guard)
How do the another Baltic States respond to the situation in Latvia?
In consequence to the Belarusian hybrid operations, the Baltic States are trying to coordinate activities. Lithuania has been sending its border guards to Latvia since 2024 – in July of this year due to the crisis a nine-man squad of officers sent. At the same time, it besides faces an increase in the number of migrants permeated from Latvia. According to the Lithuanian Ministry of the Interior, they were detained as many as 1288 during the 6 months of that year – compared to the same period in 2025 (319) this figure increased more than 4 times. In addition, Lithuania has a problem with the readmission of persons detained in Latvia, whose asylum centre in Mutekenko is overflowing. Therefore, the fresh head of this Lithuanian MMA Martynas Katelynas did not regulation out the anticipation of introducing temporary controls at the Lithuanian-Latvian border unless Latvia seales its barrier. It besides rejected the Latvian request to send an additional 100 Lithuanian borderers to the Latvian-Belarusian border, although Lithuania analyses the anticipation of sending another smaller group of officers. Since 2021, both countries have besides been supported by non-Borussia Estonia. It besides presently deploys specialised border guards teams in Latvia. So far, the Latvian authorities seem to trust primarily on regional cooperation and have not formally requested support from the EU and NATO, although since the start of the crisis in 2021. Frontex provided operational and method support to Latvia.
How can the situation on the Latvian-Belarusian border affect Poland's security?
The situation on the Latvian-Belarusian border shows that Belarus has not stopped aggressive action against the east state of the NATO and EU flank. The simplification of migration force on Lithuania and Poland may besides be linked to Belarusian procedures to unlock the transit of potassium fertilizers by the port in Klaipeda – and/or Polish ports – and the possible improvement of relations with these countries. In the absence of results, however, Belarus may return to exerting migratory force on Poland and Lithuania, especially if the EU sanctions against the Belarusian government are extended next February. The current situation may besides increase the number of foreigners trying to penetrate the Polish-Lithuanian border. This may mean maintaining temporary border controls on it, as well as considering a proposal to supply support to Latvia in the form of a Polish Border defender team.
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