Agata Krygier: How is the current situation on the front?We know that the main directions of the Russian offensive are the Kharkiv region and Donbas. In the case of Kharkov, the situation is alternatively contained, whereas Donbas, from which Ukrainian units were recruited to defend the city of Vowchansk exposed the area of Donbas, What is the intent of this Russian offensive? Is this a cut off of the road connecting Pokrowsk to Constantinówka, so as to decision towards occupying larger cities like Kramatorsk or Slavic? The Ukrainians, on the another hand, began to engage within the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
Zbigniew Parafianovich: The Pokrowsk-Constantinówka road is simply a key logistics route. The second artery is the way linking Kharkiv through Izium to Slavic and Kramatorski. These are roads that find how Ukrainian forces are supplied on Donbas. The Russians decided in the spring to draw any Ukrainian forces from Donbas. The attack went on the Kharkivs, but somewhere in the background there was inactive a concept of beginning a fresh front in Sumszczyz and in the area of Chernichov. This is what the Ukrainians feared. They may have been the first to strike in the chicken circuit. At the same time, the offensive in Kharkivszczyń, in Vowczańsk and in Lypci showed immense shortcomings on the Russian side. Both in terms of the forces that attacked and the ability to keep the war zones. Half of May wasn't a random moment. It was a time erstwhile Ukrainians had immense deficiencies in air defence or ammunition. The Russians knew they had about 2 months to improve their situation on Donbasa before possible Ukrainian movements. They could have improved it by beginning fresh fronts. but Donbas. The window of chance is most likely closed by now. The goal of the Russians before possible talks about the ceasefire are to collapse as much of Donbas as possible. It's about capturing the full Donetsk circuit and then freezing the conflict. Is this gonna work? That's an open question. The roller of the ground troops is rolling. He's not spectacular and the planet is utilized to him. Besides, politicians are playing against Kiev. First of all, in the United States, Trump could take over. Second: Germany reduces the amount of military aid to Ukraine. Thirdly, further safety agreements signed with Ukraine are not ambitious. Hence, the effort to tip over the table in the form of a whore operation or an impact on the Crimean bridge and targets in the depths of Russia. Kiev improves its negotiating position. At the same time, he tries to affect China and India in the process of talks.
Agata Krygier: A visit to China was made by the Minister of abroad Affairs of Dmytro Kuleba, which can have consequences in the long term?
Zbigniew Parishovich: Ukrainians have long been aware that China has its own ambition in the peace process in Ukraine and cannot be abstracted from it. If any discussions are to be realistic and warrant at least the minimum conclusions, China must be in this process. China knows this, which is why Ukrainians are flying to Beijing. Earlier before Kuleba on a preparatory visit was Andrii Sybicha, Deputy Head of the Ministry of abroad Affairs.
Agata Krygier: On the 1 hand, we have support for Ukraine's Western states in the form of a package passed by legislature for nearly $61 billion, comes the NATO package, which declares aid of $40 billion. There is simply a Czech initiative to supply ammunition. On the another hand, we have an electoral period in Europe As we know, fortunately, for democracy, Marie Le Pen's power camp did not come to power. However, the elections in Germany are coming, where there is simply a good chance of winning the AFD. Is the West consolidated, has a plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian War?
Zbigniew Parishovich: This is the air of politics. For example, National Unity does not exercise power in France, but the elections have actually been won by the utmost left, which besides has very circumstantial and unfavourable views on war for Ukraine. Her leader wants France out of NATO military structures. As far as Germany is concerned, the polls gain both the far left and the far right. In the U.S., he can take over the unpredictable Trump. Although its unpredictability besides assumes a variant that may be beneficial for Ukraine. For example, if he gives approval to strike ATCAMS missiles in Russia.
Agata Krygier: president Zelenski created a decree in September 2022 whose main thesis concerns "the inability to negociate with Russian president Vladimir Putin". Does it let peace talks?
Zbigniew Parishovich: This does not exclude talks with the Russians. Mirror agreements are involved, as in the case of grain transit through the Black Sea. Each organization shall sign the same agreement with the UN, which is simply a depositary and as if a middleman. That'll most likely be that direction. Ukrainians, if they sign anything with the Russians on a advanced level, it'll be this model. That way, Zelensky's law won't break.
Agata Krygier: What can be learned after the Peace Summit in Switzerland? president Zelenski no longer excludes the presence of the Russian side at another gathering to be held at the end of this year. On the another hand, the Kremlin spokesman, Dimitrij Pieskov, commented on possible peace talks: "The Russian side has never refused to negotiate, has always maintained openness to the negotiation process". What's the perspective?
Zbigniew Parafianovich: From the Polish point of view, the conclusion of any Minsk-3 agreement, whether it be mirror or non-mirror agreements, or with iron guarantees of 1 of the large countries, specified as Turkey – we are talking about alternatively non-permanent architecture. This is an arrangement for any years. Like the agreements of Minsk 1 in Ilovajsk and Minsk 2 in Debalcewe. Putinism or Russian doctrine does not imply the existence of a sovereign, free Ukraine, with access to the sea, with an effective government and integrated with Euro-Atlantic structures. In addition, Ukrainians, despite this ongoing war on Donbasa, are very successful in the war on the Western Black Sea. This war is led by the Odessa area, from the Nicolasov region, and this is simply a condition that reduces almost to zero the operational capabilities of the Crimean Peninsula for Russia. Crimea is no longer an effective base for controlling the Black Sea and chess NATO. As a result, Russia's objectives, namely to effort to cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, do not change to make full usage of Crimea's possible as a peninsula to control the Black Sea. They are independent of who happens to regulation in Russia. Unless there's a fresh Hercen in charge.
Agata Krygier: I would like to rise the subject of mobilization in Ukraine. Experts are of the opinion that it runs rather smoothly and in the autumn you can anticipate recently mobilized soldiers on the front line to fill the individual shortages, troop rotations. There's talk of a 9 to 14 unit uprising.
Zbigniew Parafianovich: We'll see how many brigades are going to exhibit in the fall of Ukraine. Let's see what the numbers are. However, remember that last summertime – erstwhile Ukraine was much better – the Ukrainians besides exhibited brigades not trained to counteroffensive in Zaporozh. Which was 1 of the sources of failure. I am skeptical about the quality of Ukrainian mobilization training.
Agata Krygier: What areas do you think the Ukrainians want to bounce?
Zbigniew Parishovich: What pays off to Ukrainians is fundamentally all the time crossing the Crimean corridor. In my opinion, the only thing that gives a strategical advantage in talks to Ukrainians is the isolation of Crimea. This is the demolition of the Crimean bridge with maneuvering missiles and the intersection of the Crimean corridor. Of course, the Sorowikin line has proven effective, but this is the only thing worth investing in. I don't believe Putin will usage atomic weapons against Ukraine due to the fact that the Chinese won't let him. Unless he uses that weapon with Lukashenko, whom he accuses of madness. But it's besides a very improbable script for today. On the another hand, the isolation of Crimea is simply a very serious argument on the part of Ukrainians in talks. And that, in my opinion, is an investment that should be packed into all
the means. The isolation of Crimea is the deprivation of pearls in the crown of Russian conquests in Ukraine. Equally forward-looking is Kurszczyzna, who hits the model of Putin's power.
Agata Krygier: Returning to mobilization, which besides continues in prisons. Dmitri Kucharczuk, the commander of the Second Battalion of the 3rd Assault Brigade, said: “Unfortunately, in our country everything is decided besides late... for example, in 2022, according to both the colony and prisoner administration, 97-98% of the prisoners were ready to go to war. Today, given all the sharpening, we will be able to gain 15-20%." After the Ukrainian parliament approved the draft mobilization bill, more than 3000 prisoners were released conditionally and were assigned to military units.
Zbigniew Parafianovich: We said that the Wagners from prison was evil, and Ukrainian criminals in the military was good. In general, cleaning prisons or utilizing human resources from prison makes sense. Primogyn in Bachmut, utilizing meat units composed of ZEKs – recognized the area. Which allowed for smaller losses in Wagner Group's personnel divisions. This is simply a sensible and reasonable solution.
Agata Krygier: Which means the visit of president Volodymyr Zelenski to Poland, before the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., (a safety agreement was signed during). Another gathering in Polish-Ukrainian relations took place during the European Political Community Summit in large Britain on the Tusk-Zelenski line, which resulted in information about the acceleration of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, thanks to Poland. erstwhile again, I am tempted to learn about your book, we know what the relations looked like, erstwhile the regulation of law and justice was exercised, and at the turn of 2023/2024 erstwhile changing the camp of power in Poland, but what are Polish-Ukrainian relations now?
Zbigniew Parafianovich: As regards the disputed issues, namely trade, stories and services, we are dealing with a continuation of the policy of the United Right. The duties on cereals apply. There are besides amounts for the crossings of Ukrainian trucks through Poland. This protectionism that Donald Tusk continues makes sense. There is no past of progress. Ukrainians are not ready and willing to make any gestures. They keep that since Poland has not yet complied with the agreement from the times of Gliński, the content of the plaque, which was destroyed by unknown perpetrators at 1 of the Ukrainian memorial points in Poland, Kiev will not make any gesture. Of course, this is simply a false communicative on their part, due to the fact that the deal with Gliński was an agreement before the war. And after February 24, 2022, any activity took place in Polish-Ukrainian relations. As far as safety is concerned, Tusk besides continues the policy of the United Right.
Agata Krygier: There is inactive a question of shooting down drones or missiles in the airspace over Poland and Ukraine?
Zbigniew Parafianovich: That is the issue of the bilateral agreement between Poland and Ukraine. These records are understood differently on the Polish and Ukrainian sides. Ukrainians would like Poland and NATO to shoot down everything that flies over Western Ukraine and thus defend as NATO
and Poland Western Ukraine, thus relieving Ukrainian air defence. Poland wants to shoot only what possibly can fly into our airspace.
