– We are flooded with pre-election polls, many of which rise concerns about their credibility. You've been analyzing them for years and trying to get the average.
– Presidential elections are least predictable. The polls frequently show the results of support diverged from later election results. It is adequate to remind that in 2015 Paweł Kukiz had a vote of 8% 10 days before the poll, and obtained a score of close to 21%. But it wasn't an isolated case. In 2001, the Pentor Institute's investigation revealed that the Alliance of Democratic Lefts – Labour Union will receive 51% and they got 41. In 2019, the polls of the National investigation Group indicated that the European Parliament elections would be won by the European Coalition with a consequence of 45% and the Law and Justice Office would receive 38%. But it was the opposite. In the presidential election there is mostly little predictability of voters' behaviour and this makes estimating results more difficult. I utilized to have my own polling room, but now I gotta trust on what the marketplace gives, which frequently offers polling products.
– So what does the support of the most crucial candidates look like a week before the first circular of voting?
– Almost surely there will be representatives of the duo in the second round, who have dominated our political scene for 20 years, namely Karol Nawrocki, supported by PiS, and Rafał Trzaskowski from the Civic Coalition.
