On 7 April, local elections were held in Poland. erstwhile you perceive to post-election comments, you can get the impression that everyone, or almost everyone, has won this election. Is that truly so? Is that even possible? A short analysis, please.
As an introduction – for the public, local elections are the least breathtaking of all (maybe alongside the European Parliament), although sometimes these emotions may point out beyond all others, especially in the localities, where there is simply a fierce fight for a change of mayor, sometimes the president of the city. However, there are very fewer who are curious in seyms. This is seen by the turnout, which is traditionally lower than in the presidential or parliamentary elections – this year it was little than 52%, while in the parliamentary elections we approached 75%.
This is so a very tempting "political hub", crucial for the functioning of individual parties. Who, then, has the top reason to be satisfied?
Successes of Law and Justice
Exactly, what is the basis of the party's message of success in the election? Well, the Law and Justice claim to have won the most votes for the Sejm, for the eighth time in a row. This is undoubtedly true, and it is undoubtedly a success. What, however, does the Law and Justice say in its propaganda of success? The fact that the most crucial thing in the election for each organization is not the number of votes won, but the acquisition of power. And this isn't good.
In addition, the PiS suffered a terrible defeat in large cities – of the over 100,000 inhabitants it lost everywhere, in any of them only candidates of the organization managed to lead to the second circular and enter it, e.g. in Rzeszów, Kielce, Poznań or Czestochowa. PiS candidates in many medium-sized cities, specified as Przemyśl, besides suffered a defeat, where the candidate of this group, Maciej Kamiński, did not even enter the second circular – the President-in-Office Wojciech Bakun and the PO candidate will meet there. What's more, the Law and Justice are waiting in this city for another year in opposition. Of course, respective managed to win, but it is hard to say that Chełm or Stalin Wola is the top of the dream of the party, which received the most votes in the country. The territory Council is better suited for this. According to Marcin Palade PiS he was to win elections to them in 10 provinces. However, 1 cannot neglect to announcement that this is the least prestigious of all local levels.
Source: https://x.com/MarcinPalade/status/17767365781013316
The success of the ruling coalition
What is the situation with the civilian Coalition? She besides rejected the victory, boasting both the decisive victories in the major cities (especially Warsaw and Gdańsk were praised, where Rafał Trzaskowski and Aleksandra Dulkiewicz won in the first round) and the reflection at the hands of the PiS of 3 Seyms, with chances for the 4th in the post-election rosads.
Additionally, the Citizen Coalition alone can exercise power in only 1 state – Pomerania. I think that in the “party barons” aspirations, and at the same time the reluctance to share the “political prey” with the coalitions, were definitely higher.
That's right, coalitionists. Success, like all parties, announced the 3rd Way. due to the fact that she retained the position from the parliamentary elections as a decisive 3rd force of the Polish political scene. She besides had respective unexpected successes, e.g. introducing a candidate to the second circular in Wrocław.
In view of erstwhile forecasts showing the support of the 3rd Way even at the level of over 20%, and given the good rooting of the PSL in the field structures, the traditionally good results of this organization in local governments and yet the hope of rebuilding cities thanks to the electorate of the Holownia organization – this consequence must be disappointing for many. And there's animosity between the coalitions. From the list to the Opolskie Sejm, the leaders of the PSL were "cut out" to which in consequence in Zamość the same was done with Polish activists 2050. After the elections, there was a media divide about the elections to the European Parliament, as the PSL suggested that another coalition variants should be reconsidered, which, in turn, the Holownia group does not even want to hear, declaring that if not within the 3rd Way, it would go to the elections itself.
And there's the Left. This 1 has by far the least reason to rejoice. During the electoral evening, they were pleased with the triumph of the full 15 X coalition and the good consequence of Magdalena Biejat in Warsaw. After final results it turned out that the consequence comparative to the forecast fell by respective percent points, yet ended with little than 13%. In the Seymics, Lewica won 8 tickets, about 2 little than 5 years ago – then it translated into power in 3 voivodships. Today, the councillor of the Left will be required to regulation only in the Seymik of Łódź, the coalition of KO and TD will suffice. Nevertheless, I think the leaders of the Left felt any relief due to the fact that the consequence is definitely weak, but not tragic. That was close, and it could have been a lot worse.
The success of the Confederacy
Here besides there is no shortage of affirmative narrative. Although members and sympathizers of this group could anticipate a higher score, and especially more mandates, local elections are not easy for a short-term political party.
Especially in the context of the situation where 1 of the 3 leaders to the run was taken seriously – Krzysztof Bosak. An additional success of the Confederacy is the 1st circular of the Belchatów presidential election, which was won by its activist Patrick Marjan. In the second circular he will face the PiS candidate.
So who yet won?
On the basis of this analysis, it can be concluded that almost everyone. How about nobody? Sometimes 1 is amazingly close to another, especially in specified complex elections as self-government. I find it hard to identify a organization for which local elections would be a clear success, due to the fact that there is no specified party. All groups, but possibly the Left, have both the elements from which they may be satisfied and those from which they may be disappointed. This may seem unusual to some, especially since in today's planet we are increasingly affected by a black-and-white image in which we must be won and lost. However, reality is much more complex, which is best seen in the above examples.
In Poznań, Rzeszów and Kielce, a candidate supported by PiS will face a candidate supported by PO. Although in the powerfully tilted left Poznań, where Jacek Jaskowiak won 44% in the 1st round, the entrance to the 2nd circular is simply a success for the PiS candidate, it can be interesting in Rzeszów and Kielce. Winning at least in 1 city will be a major success of the PiS, due to the fact that the largest cities in which it can now boast the president are Stalowa Wola and Chełm. Over a 100 1000 provincial cities will be a real success of PiS and besides a failure of KO. It is worth mentioning a duel in Częstochowa, which is not a provincial city, but the number of the population exceeds both Rzeszów and Kielce. The candidate of the Law and Justice will face a second circular with the president of the Left, for whom the failure of this city will undoubtedly be a very strong blow. The first circular was somewhat won by president Matyaszczyk, which announces considerable emotion before the next run. Interesting II tour will besides be in Wrocław, where supported by the 3rd Road Isabella Bodnar will face the incumbent president Jack Sutryk, supported by the PO.
When asked what next, it is not possible to ignore the future of individual parties – how will the results achieved translate into their further work? Will the consequence of the Law and Justice origin the consolidation of the party, or on the contrary, the failure of power in subsequent voivodships will lead to the decomposition of structures? What about the ruling coalition? There are already rumours that the PSL demands that 1 of the Left's ministries be picked up in connection with its mediocre consequence and the abortion scandal launched before the election. How much will the ruling coalition issue in the elections to parliament? One, two, 3 or four? present it seems that there will be 2 or three, but yet no option can be excluded, as there are already doubts about the current strategy notified by Lewica and PSL. What about the Confederacy? Will He last interior Difficulties? Will he go to the elections in a broader agreement, especially as he sees her losing votes, as well as mandates for committees with akin views (such as Poland There is 1 and Unpartyed Local Governmentists with Janusz Korwin-Mikke in Warsaw or Jack Kotula in Rzeszów)
These and all another questions will be answered soon. 1 thing is certain – Polish politics do not let us to be bored.
