President Yoon Suk-yeola's organization suffered a immense defeat in the parliamentary elections held on April 10 and only by a hair escape the situation where the opposition would hold a majority of 2/3 seats in the National Assembly. In turn attendance was 67% and was the highest in the democratic past of South Korea.
The Conservative organization of the Nation Force won only 108 out of 300 seats in the South Korean Parliament. The main opposition and more liberal Democratic organization gained a full of 175 seats, thus maintaining its dominance in the National Assembly. The fresh parliamentary word will besides be attended by representatives of 4 another parties. 12 seats were obtained a small over a period ago by the Liberal organization for Reconstruction of Korea. Its leader is Cho Kuk – erstwhile Minister of Justice from the days of president Moon Jae-in (Democratic Party). A tiny right-wing fresh improvement Party, led by the erstwhile leader of the Lee Jun-seok National Force Party, won 3 tickets. The Liberal organization of the fresh Future and the Progressive organization besides gained 1 mandate. At the same time, the left-wing Green Justice Party, which so far had 6 parliamentarians, fell out of parliament.
It is practically certain that the Korea Reconstruction Party, the fresh Future organization and the advancement organization will vote with the Democratic Party. Thus, the liberal block will be able to number on a full of 189 votes in the National Assembly. This is simply a large majority of opportunities, including blocking the President's legislative initiatives. Moreover, given that the fresh improvement organization was founded by the splits of the National Force Party, it is possible that its 3 parliamentarians can besides comparatively frequently vote with opposition.
From the position of president Yoon and his party, it can be considered "success" that the opposition did not yet win more than 200 tickets, although specified scenarios showed any exit polle just after the vote ended. Having 2/3 seats in the National Assembly would let the opposition not only to adopt laws itself, but besides to effectively reject presidential veto. Moreover, 200 mandates give the chance to initiate the presidential impeachment procedure.
These elections were a kind of plebiscite against the politics of president Yoon and his party. The results have so shown that the majority of society is not satisfied with the actions of the South Korean authorities. On Tuesday (16.04), a fewer days after the election, the president issued a peculiar message in which he apologized for the National Force Party's election defeat. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Chief of Staff of president Lee Kwan-sup and most presidential secretaries proposed resignations to take work for the defeat.
The triumph of the Democratic organization indicates that the strained relations between Yoon and Parliament will continue. From the minute of his inauguration in May 2022, Yoon faced quite a few problems arising from the deficiency of his own majority in the National Assembly. As of January 2024, only 29.2% of draft laws submitted by the president were passed in the South Korean Parliament. In comparison, during Moon Jae-in's word (formerly Yoon's predecessor, ruled in 2017-2022) this rate was 61.4%.
Moreover, Yoon will be the first always president of South Korea to have a majority in the National Assembly for his full term, which will end in the spring of 2027. Without any effort to agree with the opposition, the president will not be able to push any major political initiative.
The unquestionable result of the election may influence Yoon's policy changes over the course of months, although this 1 has announced that he does not intend to quit his own projects. 1 of these is the plan to increase the number of admissions to medical colleges, which has caused thousands of young doctors to leave work late in fresh weeks, and this has seriously disrupted wellness care. However, presidential officials believe that the problems are in communication alternatively than the very assumptions of Yoon's plans.
However, as far as abroad policy is concerned, the results of the parliamentary elections will not importantly influence the changes in its scope. South Korea's abroad policy is likely to stay on the current course. Yoon based it on strengthening his alliance with the United States. Political and military cooperation with the US has a cross-party consensus in South Korea. It is besides doubtful that Yoon will mitigate his policy towards North Korea. Nor should there be large changes in cooperation with the EU and NATO countries.
Certain doubts arise in the context of Japan's policy. In the last fewer months, Yoon has sought to improve the strained relations of South Korea with Japan, sometimes by force trying to silence the historical problems that be between both countries. For this reason, he was criticized by any environments, including primarily the opposition. It is possible that, in the absence of affirmative national effects of this policy, it will modify somewhat its approach towards Japan and unresolved past issues specified as the issues of Korean forced workers or the comfort of women. However, drastic changes of 180 degrees are not expected.
The election defeat of the National Force organization may paradoxically besides mean that Yoon's government will focus more on abroad policy at the expense of interior policy, in which it will be blocked by the Democratic organization and smaller liberal parties cooperating with it. The powers of the National Assembly in the field of abroad policy are rather limited, while the president is very broad. Then, too, not only will there be no change in abroad policy, but Yoon will search to strengthen cooperation with the US and Japan, and present an increasingly tough approach to the KRL-D. However, the opposition will almost surely effort to exert force on the President, knowing that any abroad policy initiatives will should be approved by Parliament (e.g. global agreements).
At this moment, they all point to a stalemate in the relations of parliament and government. The president has no majority to be able, without cooperation with the opposition, to implement laws that are crucial to him. The opposition in turn did not own a super-largest 2/3 seats in the National Assembly. But there are inactive many unknowns. Assuming that the fresh improvement organization will be more willing to cooperate with the Liberal bloc than with the ruling party, then the opposition would only request 9 deserters from the National Force Party. And increasing intraparty divisions after losing the election can't regulation out...
