The German Economy Institute announced on 21 August that without migration the east German states would lose more than 1 eighth by 2035, and by 2045 more than 1 5th of the population aged 15-66. For Poland this is simply a warning: demography cannot be replaced by either slogan or migration chaos.
Demography hits German province
The German Economy Institute indicated, that without migration movements the east states of Germany, without Berlin, would lose 13.0% of residents aged 15-66 by 2035. By 2045, the decline would exceed 1 fifth. This is not an academic curiosity. It's a bill for an ageing population and an earlier escape of people from economically weaker regions.
According to the WP News for Deutsche Welle, German economists talk straight about the request for an influx of migrants if the east of the country is to keep a staff base. In the Polish debate, specified a request is immediately thrown into the bag with ideology. Wrong. National policy is not about pretending that there is no problem. It is up to you to decide who you are letting in, under what conditions and with what work of loyalty to the host country.
From 10 million to 7.7 million
The IW study shows the scale of the decline. In the 5 east national states, 10.05 million people aged 15-66 lived on 31 December 1995. At the end of 2025 there were already 7.74 million, or 23.0% less. The full population of the region decreased at that time from 14.17 million to 12.35 million. The elderly, however, were especially fast to arrive.
It is this mechanics that should be of interest to Poles. Germany is richer, with stronger capital and greater ability to attract foreigners. And yet the east of the country is looking for people to work. Poland, which spent years losing young people on emigration, must look at these data without illusions. We've already described that emigration of Poles is decreasing, but inactive affects more than 1.5 million citizens. It's a resource that the state should search first.
Migration as a tool, not a dogma
According to IW, the number of foreigners aged 15-66 surviving in the easternlands increased from 265 1000 in 2010 to 765 1000 in 2025. Their share in the working age population rose from 3.1% to 9.9%. At the same time, a separate IW study from April showed that qualified migrants frequently choose cities-states and south German than the east Lands.
That's the point. Not all migration strengthens the state. Selective, labour, controlled and subject to economical interest migration can patch real gaps. Mass migration, uncontrolled and incriminating safety strategy destroys public assurance and puts costs on average citizens. The difference is fundamental. The right should not give this conversation to left-wing ideologists of open borders, nor to those who respond to all number with a reflex.
Lesson for Poland: First your own household and return
The Polish answer cannot be a copy of the German road. For decades, Germany has been building a model of an economy in request of a steady supply of hands to work, and at the same time has not solved many integration tensions. For us, the precedence is different: family, housing policy, unchangeable work, return of migrants and then wisely selected labour immigration.
The point is not to close your eyes to the labour market. The point is not to give the helm to large companies who want inexpensive labour, or Brussels, who like to mix the real needs of the economy with moralist compulsion. all country has the right to defend its cohesion. In Poland, this is peculiarly evident in disputes over borders, Schengen and the work of the state, as we wrote in the text Schengen and Migration: Tusk mocks Morawiecki alternatively of talking about borders.
Sovereignty begins with counting people
The study from Germany is uncomfortable due to the fact that it spoils easy passwords on both sides. It shows that demography is as hard as budget. Those who do not have children, who push young people abroad and who cannot keep the state alive, sooner or later face questions about workers' imports.
Poland needs an earlier and wiser response. It is essential to rebuild the conditions for establishing families, to get Poles out of emigration, to strengthen the state and only where there are no hands to work, to conduct a selective immigration policy. No complexes. No ideology. With state control and national interest priority.
Source: WP News, Institute of German Economy, IW on qualified migrants.
Source: WP News
