The first suggests that the Americans, without seeing the anticipation of peace, actually want to bring about the defeat of the next circular of talks and at the same time blame Volodymyr Zelenski for the defeat. specified a solution would mean abdication of the United States as a global leader, which has always been the goal of Vladimir Putin. The White home with its announcements in any ways encourages the Kremlin to tighten up its demands to become unacceptable to Kiev. Russia will win, although the continuation of the war, due to the increasing economical situation, it is not worth it at all.
If the Americans are bluffing and are not going to quit talking, Trump is inactive a gamer, but for another reason. According to media coverage, Washington is barely ready to give Moscow legal designation of Crimea's business for the start of the peace process. and the abolition of sanctions. In another words, the U.S. in exchange for small are willing to quit very much. Russia, in accordance with their method of negotiation, will consider the declared concessions in the next circular of talks as a starting point, not a negotiation objective.
Trump can become a “serial game”
If we presume for a change that the talks will be successful and the war will halt for a while, the Americans will besides go out for at least 2 reasons.
Unlike most Polish commentators, I consistently believe that the Finnish scenario, which is 1 in which Ukraine loses part of the territory, but retains sovereignty and independence, is in fact the success of Kiev and the West. In my opinion, the sustainability of peace does not depend on whether the border is at any another place, but whether peace (or deficiency of war) is accompanied by real safety guarantees for Ukraine and the maintenance of at least part of the sanctions.
The problem is that Americans on sanctions have already raised the white flag, and in the second (if they believe the spokesperson Vladimir Putin, who rejected the anticipation of dislocating NATO forces in Ukraine) they have gained nothing. In another words, in specified a script it would turn out that Washington would negociate peace without any guarantees of its durability, and it would inactive pay a advanced price.
The biggest losers, however, can prove to be Americans if the war continues, but it would turn out that Ukraine with the aid of Europe is able to defend itself further. This is not certain, but it is not excluded. specified a script would otherwise be rather beneficial for Poland. Firstly, it would mean further – profitable from our point of view – bleeding out Russians and bringing them closer to the economical crisis, which would be desirable from our perspective. The increasing désintéressement of the United States would prove to be a problem, not a disaster, as we frequently think. If it were to turn out that as a continent we were able to cope without the US, Washington would theoretically get what he wanted. In fact, he would have been a loser.
If we add to the above image the chaos of Trump's commercial policy, the decline of shares in the US stock exchange and the simultaneous decline in the profitability of American bonds, or the quarreling of the United States with almost all allies, Trump may not prove to be, as he claimed, a serial winner, but a serial overplay.
