Since the end of the 2nd circular of the presidential elections in Poland, which ended with the triumph of Karol Nawrocki with a lead of over 365 1000 votes, it has been increasingly talked about irregularities in the counting of votes. Electoral protests and analysis of protocols from respective commissions aroused the public's emotion, suggesting that the consequence could be changed if all errors detected were eliminated. Virtual Poland is writing about the case today.
Statistical analyst Jakub Kubajek presented on the X portal a linear regression model that allowed to detect anomalies in protocols from individual committees. His survey shows that although deviations from the projected number of votes were indeed revealed in respective twelve circuits, they did not work systematically in favour of 1 candidate.
“- In the committees, where irregularities in the counting of votes have been detected, we have observed the top deviations of the results from the expected value, and against the advantage of Trzaskovsky. However, symmetrical deviations appear at the disadvantage of Karol Nawrocki," says WP Jakub Kubajek.
According to Kubajek, the "correction of votes" resulting from the errors confirmed so far would increase the number of votes of Rafał Trzaskowski by about 2,6 thousand. Meanwhile, Karol Nawrocki led the final protocol with a difference of 365 1000 votes, which makes fears of changing the result completely unfounded.
“- There is no basis for a message about systemic falsification of elections, since errors did not work exclusively for 1 candidate," the ND interviewer emphasises.
At the same time, the General Prosecutor's Office and the National Prosecutor's Office conducted a review of ballot cards in respective circuits, confirming individual cases of confusion. In Kamienna Góra, after recalculation, it turned out that the package of votes originally attributed to Karol Nawrock included votes cast on Rafał Trzaskowski.
“During the examination of ballots in the Peripheral Election Commission in Kamienna Góra, it was revealed that in the package containing votes cast for candidate Karol Nawrocki there were crucial votes cast on Rafał Trzaskowski. It is clear from the recalculation of the votes that Rafal Trzaskowski, not Karol Nawrocki, as indicated in the minutes of the committee, received more votes in the circuit,” informs the Public Prosecutor's Office in its communication of Saturday, 21 June.
The National Prosecutor's Office specified that 7 of the committees under examination had switched votes between the candidates, which resulted in the erroneous adoption of a higher number of votes for Nawrocki in the minutes.
“In 7 the votes cast for individual candidates for the office of the president of the Republic of Poland were replaced, which led to the mistaken acceptance that more votes were obtained in these circuits by Karol Nawrocki” - informs the National Prosecutor’s Office, whose typical was acquainted with the case files.
Against this background, there were reports of the analysis of Dr. Krzysztof Kontek, who estimated that errors could happen in as many as 1,482 committees, liable for 315–487,000 votes – and thus possibly threatening to change the outcome. These figures rapidly picked up opponents of democratic ordination, reasoning theories about mass falsification of results. In fact, however, this is only the most alarming scenario.
Member of the State Election Commission, lawyer Ryszard Kalisz, cooled his moods, indicating that the scale of the irregularities revealed was besides tiny to truly affect the outcome.
“Their scale is not specified that it could bring the results of Trzaskowski and Nawrocki closer,” Kalisz said, asking about irregularities in the counting of votes.
Kubajek calculated that even with the presumption of maximum mistake scope – 5,500 commissions with deviations – the correction of votes in favour of Nawrocki would be around 80 1000 votes. In a more realistic scenario, this would concern 1.5 1000 committees, which would give a correction of 27 000 votes, which would be little than a tenth of the actual difference between candidates.
“If it were assumed that errors of a akin scale occurred in 5500 commissions, i.e. in a group designated as having any anomalies, and yet to recognise that all errors were made in favour of Nawrocki, the correction would be a maximum of around 80,000 votes. However, if a more realistic script for 1500 committees is adopted, the scale of the adjustment is reduced to around 27 000 votes. This is little than a tenth of the difference between candidates, which amounted to about 365 1000 votes”
explains Jakub Kubajek.
Final data from the ultimate Court confirmed that only 3 electoral protests were considered valid, concerning the occasional errors in issuing and recording certificates that did not affect the outcome. More than 10,5 1000 protests have been received, any have already been dismissed, and any are combined with common designation – in full there may be as many as 50,000. However, the overwhelming majority contains no evidence of irregularities that may alter the result of the vote.
In summary, although errors and anomalies were revealed during the vote counting and in the minutes, their scale is besides tiny to undermine the democratic mandate of the winner. Both statistical models and formal electoral protests and prosecutorial expertise indicate that the consequence of the II circular remained credible and unchanged.
