Katarzyna Zuchowicz, naTemat.pl: Will voters Braun and Mentzen vote for Karol Nawrocki? That's the question that everyone's asking today.
Marcin Duma, president of IBRIS: There are 2 paths. But to look at the election run before the 2nd round, you'd gotta describe it not as "who wins this race," but who loses it. due to the fact that today, this run can only be lost. If we sum up the votes of Grzegorz Braun, Sławomir Mentzen, Karol Nawrocki and add up the votes of Marek Jakubiak, then we have a very clear advantage. Only that the votes for Sławomir Mentzen, as for Adrian Zandberg, are votes for a full fresh polarisation, against PO-PiS as a way of organizing politics. So the question about Mentzen voters present is whether they consider that, despite all this, Karol Nawrocki is ok and is not so much "JarosławoKaczyńsko-pisowski" and in a bipolar system, however, guarantees them any of the things they would like to get, and Rafał Trzaskowski does not do so. Or they think it's not their fight at all. The percent of Mentzen voters will depend on the consequence of Karol Nawrocki in the second round. This is the main reserve of votes that can give him an advantage over Rafał Trzaskowski.
What can we foretell now? The voters of Sławomir Menzten will alternatively stay at home or bet on Nawrocki?
From the declarations that appeared in the polls inactive through I round, it would indicate that about half would vote for Karol Nawrocki and the remainder would hesitate to stay home. A tiny but insignificant part would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski.
What is the chance that a larger group of Mentzen voters can bet on Trzaskowski?
Small, actually. We have a poll from yesterday, which shows that during the silence of the election they thought everything over and yet are closer to Charles Nawrock. most likely like the voters of Grzegorz Braun.
In 2020, erstwhile Krzysztof Bosak competed in the presidential election, the votes of his voters in the 2nd circular spread almost half. Andrzej Duda was voted 51.5 percent and Rafał Trzaskowski was voted 48.5%. Would specified a script be possible now?
Now she's a small different, a younger group of voters from Sławomir Mentzen. And emotions are a small different too. Rafał Trzaskowski has been a candidate for 5 years. He is besides a candidate of KO, or part of the ruling coalition. This surely does not aid him in any way, due to the fact that Confederate voters are critical of the rulers. This is the feature of the anti-system electorate. I fishy that those who would support Rafał Trzaskowski are very few.
How do anti-systemists mostly behave in the second circular of presidential elections?
In 2015, they supported Andrzej Duda. In 2020 they shared, but in specified a way that it was adequate for Andrzej Duda to win against Rafał Trzaskowski.
Now we have 3 anti-system candidates. It is Sławomir Mentzen, Grzegorz Braun and Adrian Zandberg who challenge the current political structure and organization strategy in Poland. And it all comes down to whether they say, "No more butthole, but vote for X." Will they conclude, "This is no longer our election. They're not our candidates anymore. This is no longer a dispute over our Poland, due to the fact that no of them represent it". The question is besides whether the same message will flow from the Confederacy and from Grzegorz Braun. Why should they quit the voters they've managed to get in the last fewer weeks of this campaign?
The most crucial thing is what they would like to do with this choice. Whether it is crucial for the red card in II circular for the camp presently ruling or the overthrow of the duopol. The votes on this issue are divided in the Confederation, it will be crucial to declare the leaders of the Confederation themselves.
So what can we expect?
The main question will be whether Karol Nawrocki will stick with Jarosław Kaczyński. Will PiS staffers very consistently unstick it and show it as individual younger, energetic. As a new, refreshed face of PiS, clearly contrasting with what is symbolized by Jarosław Kaczyński. Here is simply a question to the staff of Rafał Trzaskowski, how they will plan the campaign.
The assumptions of Karol Nawrocki are very simple. There must be a situation where as many Mentzen and Braun voters as possible in the second circular will vote for him. At the same time, effort to explain to voters Adrian Zandberg that they do not truly want Rafal Trzaskowski.
It's a small harder the another way around. There are more people to discourage Rafał Trzaskowski, or Mentzen voters, and there is more hard access to them. There is besides a somewhat different credibility due to the fact that Rafał Trzaskowski is simply a candidate from another fairy tale.
It is essential to effort to affect the 3rd Way voters, who are not going to vote for Rafał Trzaskowski in the second round, due to the fact that any hesitate to go to the second circular at all.
The question remains to effort to encourage the vote of the electorate of Magda Biejat, Adrian Zandberg, while not sending signals that could mobilise Sławomir Mentzen.
There's a 3rd reserve of votes. These are the coalition voters on October 15, who voted in 2023, and now we haven't seen them. Most are not the youngest. In the oldest age groups 1 can see that there is inactive a reserve. It's just a question of whether there's any thought how to scope them and mobilize them.
Where's the 3rd Way electorate?
He's gone a little. any part went to Rafał Trzaskowski, any part to Magda Biejat. And any part didn't vote in the first round.
Who's Zandberg's electorate?
In addition to the fresh voters, the youngest part of his constituents, Zandberg gathered almost half of the left-wing voters from 2023. This consists of 4.8 percent of it.
As with Mentzen, for young voters Zandberg, the dispute between Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tuski, or their representatives Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski, is completely unattractive. They're looking for different distribution axes. To any extent, it was in the first round.
Given the electorate of Sławomir Mentzen, do we gotta face the fact that it is young men in 2025 who will elect the president of Poland?
I don't know if it's just young men. I think 2 groups are crucial. The first is the youngest age cohort. In it we did not have polarization between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, only we had polarization between Sławomir Mentzen and Adrian Zandberg. A generation of people aged 18-29 shared around completely different candidates and their stories. And now they gotta leave their planet into the planet of the elderly.
Because in turn the highest age cohorts voted for Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki. But this age group is crucial due to the fact that there are mobilization reserves. And the question is, who will be able to mobilize and who will not?
Looking at the results and the tour, it seems that 1 thing was not helped by Trump, another bachelorette. What was most crucial about the results? And why specified support for Grzegorz Braun?
The bachelor paradoxically could have helped Charles Nawrock due to the fact that she could have mobilized to defend her candidate. On the another hand, the consequence of Grzegorz Braun could besides have been the consequence of the studio due to the fact that there was possibly a group of PiS voters who felt that voting for Karol Nawrocki was not the best thought and in Grzegorz Braun found a candidate who was closest to their views and their aesthetics.
It's a different structure of voters than Sławomir Mentzen. They are 30- or 40-year-olds, with primary vocational education, working class representatives, alternatively social. They're absolutely not progressive. Braun's communicative about Poland's safe for Poles may have been tempting for them.
So the consequence of Grzegorz Braun in the 1st circular could have been influenced more by Nawrocki's studio than his campaign?
He said things that others did not say, in many places breaking out of political correctness. He must have opened the door to his candidacy. It's not adequate for them to swim through.
What had the top impact on the overall score of I round?
Very clear demobilization on the side of the coalition on October 15. And the unfulfilled promises of the government from which this demobilization came. We chased the Law and Justice, due to the fact that after the pandemic, after the inflation shock, after Russia's attack on Ukraine, they failed to return to the same level of increase in the wealth of Poles as before. We have chosen a fresh power that we have entrusted with this task. And for a year and a half, she inactive hasn't done it. We took note of that, but we pulled the consequences.
Assuming I'm a voter for Rafał Trzaskowski. How bad is it?
Yeah.
What would gotta happen in these 2 weeks so that before the second circular specified a voter would think that it might not be so bad?
Two things would gotta happen. Once: Rafał Trzaskowski's staff must scope for the reserve of people who decided to vote with their legs in the First circular and not support the coalition on October 15. And two: effectively discourage as many Mentzen voters as possible from voting for Karol Nawrocki. erstwhile we look at what the another side should do, it should do precisely the same thing. Just the another way around.
