Who are the challengers for European mainstream? What are the issues that unite and divide these challengers who undermine the foundations of the European project? And what lesson should we learn from the case of Italy and the success of Giorgia Meloni? Leszek Jażdżewski (Foundation Liberté!) talks to Teresa Coratella, Deputy manager of the Roman Office of the European Council of abroad Relations (ECFR).
Leszek Jażdżewski (LJ): In a study you co-author, entitled “Rise to the challengers: Europe’s populist parties and its abroad policy future” (Increasing the importance of challengers: the populist parties of Europe and the future of European abroad policy), you analyse the image of G8 in 2029. According to this scenario, Vladimir Putin is again invited to the table by president J.D. Vance, Jordan Bardella is president of France, and Giorgia Meloni, which is rather unexpected, serves as president of the EU Council. Only Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Ursula von der Leyen stay from the current establishment of the EU. How likely is this scenario? And what would it mean for the full European Union?
Teresa Coratella (TC): Our script is somewhat dystopian, but it is based on the current political situation in Europe. At the same time, however, we were considering this scenario, trying to anticipate the effects of Donald Trump's presidency on European policy and its impact on associate States in the future, as well as on the general organization framework.
Therefore, in this script we can observe, for example, Vladimir Putin's return. In fresh months we have seen president Trump advocate this return – at least at the beginning. At present, however, he seems to have changed his mind. Nevertheless, if we look at any of the parties that we have analysed in our project, we can see that any of them (or, in fact, many of them) are demanding Russia's renewed commitment to diplomatic dialog and relations with Europe. This would mean Russia's return as a key player – not only political but besides economic.
And so, for example, the Italian Parliament late discussed this very subject after the 5 Star Movement made an authoritative proposal to reopen the acquisition of Russian gas, as was the case before Russia's illegal invasion into Ukraine. Therefore, although the G8 script may seem a bit dystopian at the moment, there are any elements that can foretell something very similar.
LJ: In your study you usage the word ‘pretent’. Can you describe why these challengers in the EU are actually opposed?
TC: We have chosen the word "pretent" to specify 16 parties that are not part of the current organization framework of Europe, as we have known it so far; at the same time, this allows them to challenge and argue the current European framework. However, we see that this kind of harsh criticism of Europe has changed importantly in fresh years.
Why is this happening? due to the fact that in the meantime any of these parties managed to win elections (such as Italy), so if they are not part of the mainstream political parties in Europe, they entered the "mainstream" at national level due to the fact that they have power. And so, for example, Giorgia Meloni has been in government for 2 and a half years, and her social support is very high.
On the 1 hand, at national level, these parties have their specificity, but on the another hand, at European level, they belong to different groups, have different roles in national policy and, given their national political and economical interests, have different views on certain circumstantial subjects.
Nevertheless, they managed to make a common bloc – and Donald Trump's second word further strengthened him due to the fact that he truly supports these parties. At the same time, in return, it enjoys very advanced public support, although with any differences. On the another hand, these parties have different views on issues specified as Russia. For many of them, specified as the National Unity organization in France, Putin was seen as a good friend and point of reference; however, this view has gradually changed since the invasion of Ukraine.
The same applies to president Trump himself, for which the issue of customs is an crucial problem for the associate States and their economies. Therefore, although any of these parties (such as Vox in Spain) naturally support Trump and the MEGA movement and would like to make their own version of MAG (Make Europe large Again!), however, they inactive request to talk to their citizens and explain to them why the duties that can impose their top ally (being at the same time a strong leader and a mention point) can truly harm their economies.
In this light, the situation is very complicated due to the fact that each of these parties is trying to advance a communicative that is more beneficial to it, while trying to keep a balance with its national electorate.
LJ: If president Donald Trump truly pushes his customs agenda for the EU, and at the same time decides to retreat any troops from the European continent, could this be a origin that will divide the parties presently supporting Trump in Europe? If so, will these parties gotta change their position in any way? Or will they inactive support Trump, no substance what?
TC: They will gotta seriously consider what to do, due to the fact that on the 1 hand president Trump puts them in a favourable position, being a powerful megaphone for their own claims and ideas, but on the another hand it can become a truly risky origin for their national policies and for how their citizens perceive them.
We must take into account the fact that many of the countries that we have analysed in our study will shortly (within 2 or 3 years) face the next elections. Many of these challengers can win these elections, and Trump can truly influence the way European citizens perceive these leaders.
This is so a very unusual phenomenon. For these parties, president Trump is an excellent justification for many things they say publicly. At the same time, however, it can become the top threat to them. We have seen this in safety and defence matters, as well as in the way we deal with Russia during Trump's second term. I am convinced that the way president Trump spoke to Putin shocked many challengers.
All of this makes political balance powerfully unstable today. We're looking at any kind of script of mainstream freezing. The mainstream parties, which are presently in the EU institutions and are active in policy-making at EU level, appear to be frozen. This gives the advantage of many challengers. This besides gives them time to make their own strategy in relation to how president Trump views the current planet order.
If we look at the polls in different associate States, the challengers are doing comparatively well due to the fact that mainstream parties inactive do not know how to respond to this rising wave. At the moment, the majority of challengers are in the 3rd and 4th groups in the European Parliament. But what will happen in the next European elections? They may be able to become the second group in the European Parliament. This means that European policy will truly change, due to the fact that then mainstream parties will request the support of the protest parties if we want to proceed European integration.
LJ: To what degree will the political strategy and mainstream parties request to adapt in order to be able to take over any of the support presently enjoyed by the applicant parties? Will they gotta change their message and policies, or could they become more neutral in Russia and more pro-Trump in their rhetoric? Is that even possible?
TC: The transformation process of the mainstream organization has already begun with the large migration crisis in Europe. We saw with our own eyes how these parties had to adapt rapidly to the populist communicative on migration.
For example, about 10 years ago in Italy, erstwhile the mainstream government, a progressive government led by the Democratic Party, signed 1 of the most worrying migration agreements with Libya. We could besides see how the mainstream party, fearing the failure of consensus, decided to make an agreement with a well-known democratic country to keep migrants outside Europe. We have besides seen this during the fresh presidential elections in Poland – migration has become a subject that even the progressive candidate has pushed very hard, utilizing another language and narrative. We besides see this for the main parties in Germany. During the election campaign, Chancellor Merz utilized very strong words on migration and proposed new, decisive actions that nobody expected from Germany.
All this shows that this process is already firmly established in the field of migration. This is besides the case in the area of safety and defence, as the debate on these issues in the associate States is moving in the same direction as the debate on migration. The mainstream parties powerfully criticise the increase in investment spending in defence and exploit the arguments of the contenders (We take these wellness and education funds!). We are observing a common language that has become very popular and belongs to both spheres of European politics – both mainstream and the protest parties.
It can besides be said that mainstream parties were inspired by the narration of challengers, not only during election campaigns, but usually besides on a regular basis. This communicative is very effective, due to the fact that if we look at the increase in popularity of these contenders – compared to the 2019 election – we will see a phenomenon that was truly unexpected. Consequently, mainstream parties are presently faced with a truly crucial choice – whether to keep their ethics in politics, their ideas and values, or to quit on them to keep political power, which, however, is constantly decreasing.
This trend can be observed in many associate States. For example, in Spain, where Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is going through a very deep crisis, losing the support of citizens. We see this in Italy in the case of the Democratic Party, which has led the country in fresh years, creating many governments. Therefore, the communication strategy of the main parties clearly lacks something.
There are apparent mistakes. During the COVID-19 pandemic we saw how much time mainstream institutions needed to improve their communication. The same was actual of Ukraine. There's truly something missing here.
Therefore, 1 of the results of our investigation is simply a political advice for the mainstream organization to aid them better realize what they want to do and how they want to develop. due to the fact that now is the minute erstwhile they truly request to decide whether they want to develop, keep their ideas and values, or stay in a political suspension, and as a result, they are always waiting for what the challengers will do, for fresh claims, for fresh attacks, for events related to global order, so that they can react. The key question is: do they want to keep their program, or will it just be a stream of consciousness in which each major organization will effort to survive?
LJ: How does power change right-wing parties? In the case of Italy, how would you describe the political evolution of this country before the Italian Brothers organization takes power?
TC: Here in Rome, we always say that Italy is an perfect political laboratory if we want to anticipate European trends. We had a erstwhile comedian who founded a organization that then became a ruling party, namely the 5 Star Movement.
The Italian brothers are a perfect example of how citizens, feeling betrayed by the alleged "mainstream party", decided to vote for a organization that started 10 years ago with no support, and now won the number of votes that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did not anticipate – in fact, she managed to even improve her poll results.
In addition to winning the election, Prime Minister Meloni is presently enjoying very advanced support, which does not decrease – and this phenomenon perfectly reflects what is happening in Europe. We are dealing with a challenger who is very successful in his communicative – although in this case we gotta divide Meloni's communicative into national and European/international.
In national politics Meloni is very defensive and builds her public communicative mainly on the mistakes of her predecessors. It speaks very loudly on many topics – for example on Russia or migration, which works in national policy. She tries to keep dialog with Berlin and Paris, which are not her best friends.
We should take into account that she lost Viktor Orbán, for example, as her main ally due to his position towards Putin, which is completely different from Meloni's. Moreover, the Law and Justice organization (PiS) in Poland is no longer its top ally, although they inactive stay friends due to the fact that that's how the challengers behave. They may differ, but erstwhile necessary, they can build coalitions.
We have seen Meloni defend Orbán and Hungary's veto on extending sanctions and support for Ukraine, always trying to find a diplomatic language that will show her to be a reliable player in Europe, but does not betray her values and friends. This is simply a game in the area of uncovering the right balance.
Meloni's position besides helps that her younger partners are now rather weak. The Lega organization is losing public support. The Italian brothers are now a lost party, seeking fresh leadership and funding. All this means that Meloni is very fortunate today.
Furthermore, the Democratic Party, which is the main opposition party, is besides very helpful in its situation due to its unclear position on Ukraine and Russia. This organization is besides rather divided on defence and safety issues. There is besides the 5 Star Movement that best represents the way populism works, but it is inactive divided internally.
All these conditions let Giorgia Meloni to do whatever she wants in the political arena. Moreover, Meloni knows very well that, despite political instability, we are inactive 1 of the largest economies in Europe. And the relation with president Trump surely helps her. They have not yet brought any visible successes, but in Europe (in Brussels and another European capitals) it is inactive known that Meloni can talk to Trump that he can have a dialog with him – which they cannot do. This is so inactive part of her current political strength.
Read the report: https://ecfr.eu/publication/rise-to-the-challengers-europes-populist-parties-and-its-foreign-policy-future/
Podcast is besides available on platforms Sound, Apple Podcast, Stitcher and Spotify
Dr. Olga Łabendowicz translated from English
Read English at 4liberty.eu
