Iranian Shahed-136 drones terrorize Ukrainian cities, and shortly the Russians are to receive another shipment of Iranian equipment – this time it's about Fateh-110 and Zulfikar ballistic missiles. Why is Iran supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
On 28 February, president Raisi had a telephone conversation with Putin, during which he called the Russian invasion a "justified response" to the West's deficiency of respect for global agreements and NATO expansion. The authorities in Tehran sympathize with Moscow for respective reasons.
First of all, since 2015 Russian-Iranian relations have undergone crucial expansion. Both countries worked closely in Syria, supporting the Assad government. In fresh years Moscow and Tehran have besides begun to strengthen economical ties.
Even before the invasion, thanks to Russian support, the associate States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation agreed to change Iran's position from an "observer" to a full "member". Work was besides ongoing on the Russian-Iranian agreement on 20-year strategical cooperation.
The support of Russian aggression by Tehran besides stems from any twisted historical analogys. From Iran's perspective, strengthening the east flank of NATO is simply a provocation, just like the American military bases in Iraq, Turkey or the Persian Gulf.
The Iranian authorities see the dismissal from Yanukovych's power and protests in Ukraine from the turn of 2013 and 2014 as another "colour revolution", which they believe, like the 2009 Green Revolution in Iran, sponsored the West.
Thus, the war in Ukraine is for Iran more a conflict of proxy between the US and Russia than a war between Ukraine and Russia. specified perception of conflict is of large applicable importance (about which in a moment).
The relation between Moscow and Tehran was so very close before 24 February. However, Iran began supporting Russian arms supplies, decided mainly to make events on the Washington-Tehran line, specifically the failure of JCPOA's reactivation.
What is JCPOA? This is simply a 2015 agreement between Iran, the US, Russia, China, Germany, France, the UK and the EU. It regulated the Iranian atomic programme, subjecting it to global control and at the same time abolishing Western sanctions previously imposed on Iran.
However, JCPOA did not last the trial of time. In 2018, president Trump spoke to JCPOA and reimbursed Iran. After Biden took power, the Americans tried to scope an agreement with Iran and reactivate the JCPOA, but it turned out to be very difficult.
U.S. allies (especially Israel and the Saudis) force Washington to abandon JCPOA and conclude a completely "new agreement" with Iran, which, alongside the atomic program, would besides regulate Iran's ballistic rocket program and support Tehran for Shiite militias
Iran completely rejects the thought of a "new agreement" and insists on reactivation of JCPoa (without fresh commitments). This "red line" for Tehran, who fears that specified a "new agreement" would importantly limit Iran's ability to operate internationally.
In addition, Iran demands from Americans a warrant that if JCPOA is reactivated, another president will not tell her as Trump did in 2018. Biden cannot give specified guarantees, however, due to the fact that legislature does not support the JCPOA, but tends to the thought of a "new deal" with Iran.
The first 2015 JCPOA was never approved by Congress. That is why president Trump was able to pronounce it in rule “from day to day”. Iran doesn't want a repeat of Trump. Biden cannot warrant that.
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was a hope in Tehran that, in a situation of possible energy crisis, Washington would be more inclined to make concessions to just safe the return of Iranian oil to planet markets. But this time the talks broke down
Meanwhile, there is simply a discussion among the Iranian political elite on the sense of further talks with the US. any Conservatives who now control both the President's office and parliament say Iran should abandon the "JCPOA dreams" and construct atomic weapons.
Iran seems to lead a double game – typical of itself. On the 1 hand, arms supply to Russia is an effort to exert force on the US on sanctions and JCPOA.
On the another hand, equipment supplies increase Iran's influence in Moscow.
The influence in Moscow will be of large importance if Iran actually decides to build atomic weapons. Russia has been opposed to atomic proliferation for years and in the past has joined Western sanctions to block Iran's atomic program. This time the Iranians may, in effect, force the Russians to give “green light” to Iranian “bombs”.
The construction of atomic weapons by Iran is, of course, an utmost script that cannot be ruled out.
Anyway, Tehran plays for 2 scenarios – JCPOA reactivation or atomic weapons. Weapons supplies to Russia are a tool/measure for the intent of reactivation of JCPOA or the construction of atomic weapons (depending on the U.S.'s tendency to concessions and interior situation of Iran).
However, Iran's arms shipments to Russia may harm Tehran. Americans seem increasingly convinced that the Iranians must be played “hard” and that further sanctions should be imposed. Furthermore, further deliveries of Iranian equipment to Russia can origin Israel's reaction, which has not yet sent weapons to Ukraine. It has already been reported that Israel has begun reporting intelligence to the Ukrainians about Iranian machines.
