The opposition's final coalition plans have failed. Will it be different this time? Source: Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)In the day of the permanent campaign, it is hard to say that the election run is coming. In fact, that would be wrong. As with economical cycles, we are talking about the end of a period of time, in this case we can talk about the beginning of a formal electoral campaign. The upcoming event of the year, which is parliamentary elections, implies the emergence of many questions, including what configuration will individual political options be launched?
When talking about possible alliances, conschachts and common lists in Polish politics, a fewer things should be highlighted first. First of all, the frequently repeated transmission by politicians and journalists about the division into government and opposition is besides far-reaching simplification. Political parties, and even more so coalitions, have never been in Poland, are not and seems not to be homogenous. Second, politics is not math or accounting, where 2+2 is 4. In politics, sometimes 2+2 is 7 and another time is 1. After all, politics is not only ideas and values, but it is besides the interests of 1 or another group, which frequently prove to be contradictory.
Whatever is said about the possibilities of opposition organization alliances, the strongest nut to crack will be Law and Justice. It is not known from now on that there is simply a conflict in the United Right which can be considered on 3 levels: conflicts of interest, values and personalities. There is simply a dispute on the line Mateusz Morawiecki – Zbigniew Ziobro. Ambitions and advanced egos of both masters have long come to light and cost at least a fewer people in charge with Michał Dworczyk. Many emphasize that specified a situation has been unprecedented so far. 1 of the most crucial ministers regularly criticizes, as if not to look at his boss, calls him "soft" and bears no consequences. However, this dispute is simply a manifestation of something else – a different imagination of Poland, especially its place in Europe. Solidarna Polska regularly bothers PiS with life and rumors are circulating that possibly president Kaczyński will want to get free of Minister Ziobra and run independently in elections. In this scenario, however, the Law and Justice will gotta collide with the possible of government disintegration and deficiency of real cause. However, the Ziobrists will be in bigger trouble, due to the fact that they will be faced with a new-old reality, that is, a return to 2011-2015 erstwhile they were outside the parliament.
An different intensification of the actions can be observed on the opposition side mentioned earlier. Although the talks about 1 common list seemed to me as fantastic as the ringing Team, the formation of alliances should be considered more likely than the independent launch of each individual opposition party. The biggest favorites for a joint start, who at the minute seem certain, stay PSL and Poland 2050. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz and Szymon Holovnia late made another political rapprochement and announced the creation of a single list of cases to be completed by creating an election coalition. As the stakeholders themselves point out, it will possibly be the alliance of the youngest and oldest parties that function on our political stage. Both can gain a lot. People will be able to halt worrying about their polls and gain refreshment and “cool” from their younger colleagues. In turn, Holovnia and the company will have experienced and many structures, which will surely facilitate their fight in elections.
Nothing extraordinary should be expected on the side of the Civic Coalition. Donald Tusk has repeatedly stressed that if there is no single list of alleged democratic opposition, they will go to the elections themselves. It's hard to anticipate KOs to abruptly like the Left. It would be highly complicated to explain to the public how it is that Magdalena Biejat is campaigning with Paul Poncilius, who, not long ago in RMF FM, said that he was “closer to Korwin than to any of the party's demands Together. I don't think the Left should be looking for an alliance with anyone either. They have unchangeable support, recognisable leaders and leaders, and it seems that by building a list together with anyone to the right of each other, they could only lose."
The Confederate remains a major option. I'm not hiding that I'm a small amazed to see what's going on in her. The fierce conflict between fresh Hope and the Liberators appeared much faster than I expected. Remembering the 2015 parliamentary elections, erstwhile the Korwin organization was close to getting to the Sejm and proceeding the words of Sławomir Mentzen, it could be considered that the dispute would not see the light of day at least until the election results. However, as Dziambor and his associates, the management of the NN, emphasizes, uses methods known in Putinian Russia and tries to destruct any of the unfavorable opposition. At this moment, it is hard to tell how the substance will end, but it is expected that I will gotta revise my views on the future of the Polish alt-right.
After the coming parliamentary elections we can anticipate many things, but in fact only 1 is certain – variability. There were inactive a fewer months left for the battle, and Polish policy repeatedly proved that it was unpredictable.
Adam BRATKA
