According to the authoritative results of PKW, out of 100% election commissions, Rafał Trzaskowski received 31.36 percent support, while Karol Nawrocki received 29.54 percent. Experts commenting on the election emphasize that the next 2 weeks of the run will be intense, especially for Trzaskowski.
The key question is, who wins? We're checking the bookies. As of 19 May morning, the course for Karol Nawrocki on the STS platform was 1.80, while for Rafał Trzaskowski 2.00.
STS notes that most likely most of the electorate of Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, which together gives more than 20% of the support, can go to Karol Nawrocki's side
"Left and coalition camp picked up just over 15 percent in turn, and it is besides uncertain that this electorate will go to Rafał Trzaskowski. Adding to this the results of another candidates who are leaning towards the right, specified as Krzysztof Stanowski or Marek Jakubiak, it can be pointed out that Karol Nawrocki is presently the favorite" – we read on the STS website.
Trzaskowski or Nawrocki? That's how bookies see it.
Another bookie, Betfan indicates that the odds of both candidates are even. It's about odds on a circumstantial percent in the second round. It is worth noting that in the case of both Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski, course 1.85 concerns 2 options: that the candidate will receive little than 51% of the vote or that he will exceed this threshold.
However, the next days of the run will be decisive. Much will besides depend on the vote of candidates who have fallen out after the first circular as well as attendance. The differences between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, posed by bookmakers stay minimal, nothing is settled. We will know the final result on June 1, 2025.
