Today we will look at how the Russians and the Russians live a year after the invasion decision. We will besides tell you the prospects for the coming years.
Let us first look at sanctions and their impact on the economy and the lives of the Russians. By the outbreak of the invasion, western companies created up to 40% of Russian production and GDP. frequently they were the only and very good employers for the mediate class. In many areas they besides gave jobs and decent salaries to workers and the remainder of society. However, the situation began to change in March last year. Then the first companies announced their intention to leave Russia. For many it was a shock, as for employees of 1 of the IT consulting companies, who on Friday were informed that from Mon. they did not gotta come to work and their positions were eliminated.
Many companies have kept their word and are no longer present in Russia, many have stopped and are inactive waiting whether it is for sale or for peace and return to an earlier situation. There are besides those who do not intend to retreat and the current situations consider it an chance and chance to increase wages at the expense of disappearing competition.
Let's see how the data is in this area.
We have 2 large investigation centers that collect data.
The first is Yale's celebrated report. You'll find it all under this link.
As we see for a year of operation, the number of companies that left Russia is significant.
However, the Yale study covers only part of companies operating in Russia.
Currently, the largest database of companies and their current situation can be found on the KSE website (Kijowski University of Economics) LeaveRussia: Analytics as of {DATE} (leave-russia.org)
As we can see, a large part of the companies have left Russia completely, and there are besides companies in the process that are waiting and possibly they will make specified a decision shortly and possibly go to the red part.
Let's look at the details.
First, let's look at the revenue, assets and capital of these companies in Russia.
As we can see, companies waiting for better times or with the option of returning are the majority. A frequent exit decision is easier for companies with lower revenues or assets. However, this situation will change in 2023 and 2024, companies leaving Russia will arrive more widely today. Live on YT.
It's much more interesting erstwhile we look at countries in percent terms.
Companies that stay in Russia (more than 50%)
- China, India, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Japan, Austria, South Korea, Hungary.
On the another side of Mom
- USA, United Kingdom, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Czech Republic, Canada, Spain, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania.
Interesting truths
If we look at absolute data, the first 3 companies inactive in Russia are from:
- Germany (214)
- USA(168)
- China(97)
The division is rather interesting due to the number of staff employed
And here we go to the first surprise Western companies employed 1.41 million people generating immense revenues for the economy, which means that the redundancies that occurred in 2023 did not grossly affect the level of unemployment in Russia.
This means that the situation has worsened for little than 0.5-1 million citizens. quite a few data indicates that there is simply a strong correlation between Russian migrants and this group.
If we presume that 70 million people are working in Russia, it will mean that the failure of workers due to redundancies is smaller than in the case of mobilization, evasion or war losses.
In addition, the employment method is drastically changing, mainly in Russian companies. By the end of 2023, the number of officially self-employed Russians may emergence to 10 million people, according to the profile platform "Naimix". At the end of 2022 according to the taxation service, there were 6.5 million self-employed in the Russian Federation and this figure is steadily increasing.
People who inactive work for Western companies are in a situation of constant stress and uncertainty. Companies besides do not know their future, a large part of them closes others for the next year will operate under suspension.
People who work for Russian employers frequently face a fall in real income, in 2022 it was 10% on average.
Inflation and the prevailing price. There is no drastic decline against the assurances of power. Imports are increasingly expensive, especially those covered by the alleged parallel imports. Growth is 100%-200%. For local brands, there is simply a deterioration of quality. This is accompanied by a decrease in retail sales and consumption, which at the end of the year was 10%. Although most trade networks have not withdrawn from Russia and inactive buying can be done in German Globus or French Auchan but prices from period to period are increasing.
The situation in 2023 in this respect will be schizophrenic. On the 1 hand, car Putin himself announced that inflation would slow down to 4% by mid-year. On the another hand, a immense taxation hole, taxation increases for companies, extra money and social transfers. A deepening recession, which includes further regions of Russia, is simply a major asset for expensiveness. This is seen in authoritative inflation statistic where there are regions with 3 times lower inflation and where there is simply a fast collapse of residence and consumption.
As the mediate class shrinks or even fades, society slow sovietizes. Masses dependent on social transfers will increase over respective years, and oligarchs and business will become increasingly focused within the advanced and mediate levels of power.
In addition to Western corporations, the mediate classes will be the victims of war and power, tiny and medium-sized companies that frequently lived in symbiosis with western corporations.
The sharp decline in civilian production that has been happening since the fall of 2022. it will deepen in this and next year (I have written about it many times).
In addition, the State is incapable to keep the existing export model of natural materials. Although mining companies will inactive last this and next year but without Western technology, with drastically reduced revenue, with increased taxes, they will gotta cut investments in fresh deposits and wells. Easy-to-extract oil and gas ends, without the essential investments Russia will be deprived of its mining opportunities and this is simply a script commonly outlined by industries and Russian economists in the position of this decade.
A major challenge will be in 2023 to keep current social transfers and even increase them as the car promises. due to the fact that it should be remembered that Russia transfers money to over 40% of the population and as we know only halfThe Russians are working.
The following image is drawn to us (exact data and the improvement of individual points will be presented shortly in separate columns and on the Kremlink channel):
- Most of the society does not work out of which workers are inactive shrinking due to the ongoing war. Those who work have increasingly lower real incomes and are increasingly moved to produce or alternatively to renovate deadly weapons or participate in war.
- State gross falls due to persistent sanctions, in peculiar natural materials, emigration, poverty, military production alternatively of civilian production
- Spending on this increases due to war, recessions
- The central bank does not have adequate abroad exchange reserves to physically sale gold and print money
- Small and medium-sized enterprises fall
- Large companies are burdened with increasingly higher taxes by the Russian government and cut off from western technology
- The Oligarchs emigrate or gather around power
- The number of war victims goes into hundreds of thousands, generating further social transfers
- Crime increases drastically. quite a few people run off into illegal business. Recruits returning from the front enrol themselves massively in criminal organizations. Trade in illegal alcohol and drugs is booming
- But the number of prisoners is falling, there's no 1 to catch criminals, and a large number of prisoners are inactive being sent to the front from where they're not coming back, and if they're coming back, they power gangs.
- The number of deaths, divorces, abortions is the highest in history
- But the number of fresh births the lowest in the past of measurements
- Alcohol consumption in peculiar increases illegal
- In 2023, China exports more than 50% of all goods and trade with Europe slow dies. Russia sends 40% of its natural materials to China. The Chinese government is awaiting the collapse of the current government and the installation of another fully-grinish government.
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