This is the first treaty on relationship and cooperation with a country that is not bordering France – emphasises "Le Monde". The fresh agreement between Paris and Warsaw has been announced for months. It will replace the 1 concluded in 1991. The Treaty of more than 30 years ago is very outdated – it states, for example, that France should do everything possible to enable Poland to join the European Union.
On Monday, Emmanuel Macron even gave a circumstantial date and place of ratification. – On May 9, I will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a treaty on relationship – announced the president of France in an interview with "Paris Match". Originally, this agreement was to be signed by the end of June 2025.
Let us add that the place is besides not accidental, or even symbolic – as historical sources state, in Nancy in 1736, after being banished from the country, the Polish king Stanislaw Leszczyński, the father-in-law of French king Louis XV, lived there.
Macron besides announced that this would be a "historical event" and added that his country "consolidates" global action, implementing its strategy to strengthen Europe. Representatives of French diplomacy named a fresh agreement with Poland "premium treatate", akin to those that France had previously signed with Germany, Italy and Spain. And Prime Minister Donald Tusk late stated that "this could be a breakthrough treaty in terms of common safety guarantees."
The French AFP agency besides pointed out that the signing of the treaty between Poland and France would coincide with the date of the Moscow parade, erstwhile Putin and his people would celebrate at the Kremlin the 80th anniversary of the end of planet War II.
"Polce, historically very 'Atlantic', whose safety doctrine is based solely on the aid of America and its 'nuclear parasol', may be about a fundamental change in the perception of defence challenges," he points out "Le Monde". And he emphasizes that so far the French concept of European "strategic autonomy" was not heard in Poland "or was the origin of many misunderstandings".
Poland and France will sign a fresh treaty on relationship and cooperation. What does that mean?
The importance of the fresh treaty is besides stressed by politicians of our government. And they're talking about this paper in superlatives, although we don't know what it says yet.
"Poland finalises with France a treaty related to common safety guarantees" – already a fewer weeks ago head of the MFA Radosław Sikorski said.
"We will shortly sign the treaty with France. This cooperation will strengthen the European pillar of the North Atlantic Alliance and give us further guarantees of security" - he announced in the presidential debate in Koński Rafał Trzaskówka.
"New treaty with France – it will be a premium agreement! Poland's strong position in Europe and in the planet is the foundation of our security" - wrote MP Paweł Bliźniuk from PO.
Political opponents of the Coalition on October 15 in turn mock and compose on social media that "it will come out on our side" that it is "exhale". They besides match the Polish-French alliance, whose final arrangement was signed in Paris on September 4, 1939, a fewer days after the outbreak of planet War II.
Is this truly a groundbreaking treaty for Poland, which means for our safety and will it strengthen it? We asked prof. Alexander Cieśliński from the Department of global Law and the European University of Wrocław.
Mateusz Przyborowski, naTemat.pl: How should we look at the fresh treaty with Nancy, whose signing is scheduled for 9 May?
Prof. Aleksander Cieśliński: For now, it is hard to say anything, due to the fact that we do not know circumstantial records. The point seems to be that Poland should be promoted to the closest allies of France and be treated as a strategical partner.
Do you think it will be a game chain erstwhile it comes to Poland's security?
Firstly, order in Europe is falling apart. And if we can talk about any kind of an agenda associated with this, it's that all countries wake up and look for fresh configurations. Secondly, Germany is present a dramatically weakened country. Of course, after planet War II they were besides weak, but they began to grow economically very quickly. The political power was the French.
Now Germany is weak militarily and politically, and this is simply a very bad forecast for France and the European Union as a whole. Strong Germany is needed, no substance what any in Poland raise. And the thought is to make Europe the tandem of the strongest countries. Italy and Spain may inactive be among them.
France has besides signed treaties with these countries.
The European Union is the 27 associate States, among which we have overrepresentation of tiny countries, which are neither military nor economic, able to find anything. And then there's a large five, which is Poland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.
Spain is besides in the incorrect position, and the Spanish have a completely different sensitivity due to the fact that they do not look at the Russian threat. France clearly woke up, and this is simply a very good sign, realizing that the conflict with Russia is very likely. The French elites besides realize that in the event of the attack on Poland and the non-survivor of this attack, The Germans won't last either. France is militaryly strong, but it will not do anything in Europe itself, but it sees Poland's efforts to strengthen its defence potential. So we see the French looking for a partner, a small desperate, due to the fact that the British are outside the EU.
And I will remind you that France is NATO's only completely atomicly autonomous country – they have emerged from the military structures of the North Atlantic Alliance due to Charles de Gaulle and have never subjected their arsenal to atomic control by Americans. However, the British atomic arsenal is already under American control and part of that arsenal is located in the United States.
Taking all these elements into account, the French realized that Poland is an crucial player, it is besides crucial that we are placed on the map of Europe. This is the best kind of political arrangement in which both sides have interests, not just goodwill.
So from the Polish point of view it is an perfect arrangement – we enter as weakened Germans, we rise our function in Europe and we have France as the main partner of strong atomic power.
Not so much we enter, due to the fact that the Franco-German tandem will always be the base of the European construction and these unions are highly strong, which can become an essential component of the fresh power strategy – an component whose function will besides depend on how much Germany will be militaryly weakened and the Russian threat will increase.
Additionally, on the French-German line for a long time sparks due to a completely different approach to many crucial problems. The French look strategically, the Germans look pacifistly. Poland has no choice either – we have been betting on the British before, but they are not in the EU, we have tried to bet on Germans and possibly Germany will rebuild in 5-10 years, but in 5-10 years we can have Russian aggression here. As long as Germany is weak, the function of Poland will be important. The French, looking for allies, don't have much area for manoeuvre, and we request partners too.
For years, however, France has looked at Central and east Europe not very pleasant.
He doesn't look like that anymore. And he knows precisely what kind of partner he has – Poland, which spends 4% of GDP on weapons, which has made Europe aware of the threat Russia is, which effectively managed to organize aid to Ukrainians. It all made our stock grow. I'm far from false national pride, but all this makes us a small stuck together.
Let us return to the planned signing of the treaty with Nancy. Paris and Warsaw remind us that work on it took respective years.
I have been observing European policy for more than 30 years and I have seen respective volts of French people who have said, "Yes, we will value Poland" and ended with projects. Today, however, the French and Germans do not have much to do in the defence sphere, the brexit has besides given them much to think about, and – even though they argued with Britain – the British have always had a realistic approach, there is simply a war in Ukraine, and our – I say with sarcasm – the "former" brothers Americans besides keenly propose that they are abandoning Europe.
The stowaway where we function so pleasantly in Europe due to the fact that we knew we had an American umbrella was over. And the French are among the first to realize that. However, to add a spoon to this honey barrel: if we look at historical analogues, then the last time the French made specified a pact with us was 1939. That's erstwhile it didn't end well for us, and I want it didn't.
Of course, this is simply a completely different situation, and sometimes you can talk about it with half a joke, half a serious one, but the fact is that everything changes. Poland's strategical position has increased, we are on the frontlines, and the full EU would pay immense money if Russian aggression occurred in the EU. After a fresh blackout, experts calculate Spain's GDP decline by 0.7 percent points and foretell repercussions for another countries. So what would be the war against Poland or the Baltic countries if the Kremlin decided on it.
The French Ambassador to Poland has late said that "now Paris and Warsaw are rediscovering themselves, and in France we are talking about the Polish minute in Europe".
Such diplomatic statements must be read between the lines: it is no longer just empty. The question is besides what the next elections in France will look like, in which there is no shortage of strong political forces skeptical of the conventional West. And this case must besides be added as a star to this story.
The diary "Le Monde" emphasizes that this does not mean that France is considering the deployment of atomic weapons in Poland. And he points out that the "more realistic in the short term" script is, for example, a joint exercise of the French strategical forces.
Some of the French atomic weapons are on aircraft, so it doesn't gotta be. It cannot be excluded that any time-limit France will extend atomic guarantees to Poland, which would result, for example, in French aircraft with atomic arsenals, at least from time they will be stationed in our country. Russia is simply a country that can play on nerves and know how to scare everyone, so for them besides specified a signal would be an crucial warning.
The voices of the most crucial politicians in France and Poland are lofty, so we gotta wait for what is in this treaty. For example, the French-German treaty speaks of "indissoluble safety interests" of signatories and common assistance with "any means" available to the parties in the event of armed aggression.
Defence possible – specified a evidence is the most crucial for Poland in this treaty, due to the fact that we can arrange the remainder within EU structures. We look forward to the content of the treaty for Poland and then we will see how much the French will actually offer us a model equivalent to what is in the agreement they have with Germany, for example. It's gonna be a test.
Of course, the French-German Pact was made in a completely different time and it was more about political and social cooperation to break the animosity after planet War II. Poland should be most afraid with military imputence. Nevertheless, it will be worth comparing both of these agreements.
On the another hand, there are differences between Poland and France about how to equip Europe – specified as a dispute over purchases of equipment from non-European countries. Experts stress that in fresh years Poland has placed arms contracts in the USA and South Korea, while France, having the strongest defence manufacture in Europe, wants EU countries to buy European weapons.
This is another subject for discussion with the French: how much Poland will be allowed to table on arms purchases and support for the Polish arms industry. Unfortunately, there is simply a fundamental problem here. The very concept of the EU that we should buy and trust on our native EU production is very smart.
Only that the Polish arms manufacture has been marginalised for years and a large part of even what we produce at home comes from outside the Union. And now: how to support EU business and, on the another hand, support the Polish arms industry, which needs time to increase this component produced locally?
Here I would hope that France would be able to take Poland's hand. If it were found that the Polish manufacture would stay excluded, it would immediately give arguments to all Eurosceptics, who would begin to say that it is truly about Germany taking control of the production of arms for Poland.
