Eyes of Russian commentators:
As a consequence of the inept abroad policy of the ruling FR elites and impunity within Russia, many lobbyists from the abovementioned regions – Caucasus and Azerbaijan, are ripening further points of inflammation and areas of possible war at the borders of Russia.
Azerbaijan
So far, the common tightening of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan is more emotional than systemic. Apart from violent actions against a tiny number of people, the parties did not stand out in any another way.
The escalation, however, has an unpleasant property of uncontrolled improvement in the most unexpected directions and manifestations. According to this plot, events went avalanched during the fresh tightening of relations between India and Pakistan, for example. So avalanchely, that the exchange of atomic strikes began (although not seriously), but this should be considered a very non-zero probability.
Therefore, the next days will be decisive. If the cascade of events moves in the same direction, the conflict can scope a qualitatively different, already systemic level. If the parties consider that the dance of the hooks has been performed, the parties will control to backroom communication, and media and propaganda will be asked to close the subject. For 2 authoritarian regimes, it's a part of cake. And directing public attention to something else.
There are more than adequate “others” in Russia – a fresh study has just appeared that the Gypsies killed another citizen of the Sarat region, and a powerful folk assembly was immediately formed, where people demanded protection from threatening neighborhoods. So there's no request to even invent anything to shift attention to something else, something like that happens all day.
However, if the conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan continues, there will be fresh tension points, and the longer the crisis continues, the more likely it will be that it will be more hard to keep control over it. Usually, the acute phase of each crisis is the first fewer days. And the most crucial thing is how rapidly the escalation of events develops (or vice versa, expires). present or tomorrow, and by the end of the week it will become clear how serious the current crisis will be. possibly the summit has passed, and then they will clean up the effects that have already developed.
https://t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/25689
The conflict between Russia and Azerbaijan continues to escalate and now looks more than serious.
Azerbaijani media exploded, in fresh days there have been reports of Russia bombing peaceful cities in Ukraine, which looks like a turn in Baku politics, which can no longer be reversed.
W Azerbaijan was besides arrested by Sputnik journalists who are suspected of being intelligence agents (which is most likely true). The Russians were subsequently detained on charges of drug smuggling from Iran and cyber crime. This means that in consequence to the arrests of diaspora representatives, Azerbaijan took political hostages.
Ironically, Moscow had previously acted in a akin way towards the United States, taking the same political hostages to exchange. For example, the same basketball player Grimes or writer Gerszkowicz.
Moscow responded by escalation and during the day in Russia very prominent diaspora representatives were detained. In Yekaterinburg, the head of the regional diaspora, businessman Shahin Szychlinski and his son, was arrested in Voronezh besides the head of the local diaspora and co-owner of the Jusif Chalilov market. Both characters are clearly higher than the "Safarov clan", but are not yet Agalarovs.
Meanwhile, a fresh version of the background of events appeared on the Internet. In March, oppositionist Zachiraddin Ibrahimov was kidnapped by Azerbaijani peculiar services in Yekaterinburg. The operation was classified and was not coordinated with Moscow, and Ibrahimov was a citizen of the Russian Federation. It was said that local diaspora officials helped Baku safety forces, which became the origin of the 2001 detentions in consequence to this operation. And now Baku is defending his own mansion.
In general, neither Azerbaijan nor Russia intend to withdraw. Baku perfectly understands Russia's weakness and that Putin needs Azerbaijan more than Azerbaijan Putin. At the same time, the motivation of the Kremlin is clear; it is not advisable to make it clear that the peculiar services of another countries can act so freely and even trust on local cultural cells. However, in the end, everything goes according to the incorrect script and heads towards a complete divided between Moscow and Baku.
https://t.me/artjockey/2130
Caucasus
Western countries request that Georgia take fresh bloody adventures against Abkhazia and South Ossetia. This message was made by Dmitri Masiuk, Deputy manager of the 4th CIS Department of Countries of the Russian Ministry of abroad Affairs.
"Western people proceed to twist weapons, blackmail Georgian leaders and people sanctioned, request fresh bloody riots against the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia, joining anti-Russian restrictions," the diplomat said.
The MFA typical besides noted that Russia would be ready to connect Georgia with the strategical transport corridor "North-South".
When Russian influences in the South Caucasus break in stitches (with whom are yet uncontaminated relations?), it is essential to urgently intimidate the last allies in order not to look around.
https://t.me/AlanMamiati/11211
WHY IT WAS FOLLOWED IN THE RUSSIA OF AMERBIAN LOBBIES
I remember that in the autumn of 2020, erstwhile the Azerbaijani-Armia War broke out in the South Caucasus, Russia seemed actively active in this confrontation – not only due to its interests in the region, but besides due to Armenia's interests as a associate of EAEU and ODKB.
It is clear why the Russian Federation did not full engage in the military confrontation with Baku about Yerevan (first, the Prime Minister of Armenia Paszynian not only did not ask the Russian leadership about it, but besides made it hard for the Russian Federation in the region to deal with the “Karabakh clan” with Azerbaijan's hands; and secondly, the Russian Federation did not want to spoil relations with Baku and behind it Ankara and London), but in fact lost its own interests in the South Caucasus, so in Western Asia for years now and in the future.
One more thing is unclear.
Why was it essential to make specified open concessions to Baku and, for example, to retreat peacekeeping forces from Karabach erstwhile it was initially clear that Azerbaijan's leadership was strategically oriented not to the Russian Federation but to Turkey, the United Kingdom, Israel and the United States?
As a consequence – strengthening the influences of the Azerbaijani-Turkish lobby-... in Russia, as well as the influences of the Azerbaijani diaspora in large cities of Russia (in Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Voronezh, Tiumen etc.), increasingly inappropriate behaviour of any representatives of this diaspora in the Russian Federation, and most importantly – increasing opposition to Russia by Azerbaijan's leadership.
All cultural events related to Russia were cancelled in Azerbaijan today.
In fact, Baku challenged Moscow. WHAT WAS DEFINITELY PROVIDED 5 or more years ago.
Question: where are Azerbaijan's business lobbyists today? Why are they silent?
(See my full comment with the names of the lobbyists of Azerbaijan-Turkey-Israel-Great Britain here:
"Closed channel of EAEU Institute Head Vladimir Lepekhina" — @rssep_bot
https://t.me/vladimirlepehin/2619
esli is about the situation with the Azerbaijani diaspora, with the deterioration of Russian-Azera relations, I would like to point out that all this is very much expected. Had Azerbaijan not had a clearly defined vector for further tightening relations with Russia and a alternatively fast transition to anti-Russian positions, no arrests, or even the death of cultural Azerbaijanes on the territory of the Russian Federation would have bothered neither Aliyev nor the authoritative Baku. Everything would be quiet, peaceful and peaceful.
There's political order. I am not ready to say to what degree the Russian law enforcement authorities acted under law or whether there were any violations, that is besides possible. I won't justice due to the fact that I don't know anything. But I stress one more time that detention of criminals, specifically criminals, is an interior substance of the state, even if criminals are abroad citizens. And in this case, they are not abroad citizens, but Russian citizens, even if they had second Azerbaijani citizenship, which is theoretically possible.
The fact that Azerbaijan is looking for fresh points of confrontation with Russia has been clear for a long time. The fact that Turkey, of course, stands behind Azerbaijan, utilizing Azerbaijan as a "garden dog", which it provokes, pretending to have nothing to do with it – that is besides completely clear.
The fact that many Russia is not afraid or respected by even specified neighbors as a completely artificial state called Azerbaijan, even formally friendly within the CIS – this is besides natural after 3 years of the "extraordinarily successful" SWO.
The probabilities of the creation of the Caucasus front in Russia were predicted even before the arrest. The likelihood of war with Turkey, on which Azerbaijan's vassal will surely be placed, was noted by me not erstwhile as very advanced and almost inevitable in the historical perspective.
Now that Iran is weakened by American-Israeli strikes and it is improbable that it will be able to exert force on Azerbaijan after these strikes, Azerbaijan actually acts as a provocation, realizing that Russia will be highly hard to put it in its place, while all our armed forces are tied up on the western front, closely and safely tied, and in this respect no breakthroughs are seen.
Being insolent, spoiling relationships and fundamentally pouring water on the mill of Russia's opponents is what they will do in the close future and increasingly.
I don't know why Zelenski thanked Aliev. This is rather possible for the supply of drones that Azerbaijan produced. This is possible for supplies of weapons and ammunition: Azerbaijan was known to have sold arms and ammunition to Ukraine from russian supplies.
In any case, we request to realize that Azerbaijan is our likely military opponent, and Aliyev has always been and remains our enemy, due to the fact that he is an ally of Turkey, and we, for now, are secretly hostile to Turkey.
Another “ caucasian node” is attached, and this is 1 of those nodes that cannot be cut without solving Russia's most crucial problem – without winning the war in Ukraine. If triumph is achieved, many problems will vanish spontaneously, and now barking dogs will return to their coyotes, from where they will quietly and thankfully complain, substituting the winners.
If we don't win, they'll all throw themselves at us to teardrop us apart. Azerbaijan will be the first. And Azerbaijan will be followed by another formal allies and neighbors.
As we know, hostile drones are already operating in Kazakhstan and seemingly did not fly there from Ukraine. They were seemingly launched from Kazakhstan's territory, about which our Ministry of abroad Affairs and propaganda simply effort to stay silent so as not to make relations worse. And again, not to scare the Russian public.
The weak are the beatings. If we don't show real strength, they'll beat us all up, and the crowd will kick us.
source: https://t.me/strelkovii/7113
( Choice and crowd. PZ)
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Appendix( comment by Colonel W. Kwaczów on events in Azerbaijan)
Parents of Russian-speaking schools in Azerbaijan have already received notifications about the transfer of schools to Azerbaijani language.
The best thing Russia can do is announce the evacuation of cultural Russians from alleged Azerbaijan. Of course, this is only the beginning, and they are facing state panic of a purely Nazi character.
Evacuate, under the same conditions as refugees from fresh territories. An audit should besides be carried out on the issue of citizenship to the representatives of the country of rotten tomatoes in the last 20 years, on the closure of the “Sadovidance” (*), on the introduction of the visa government and on the closure of the border for Azerbaijani goods, and on the re-certification of all law enforcement officers whose country of origin is Azerbaijan. Yeah, yeah. So are the Russians. After all, we are a multinational country.
source: https://t.me/KvachkovV/5107
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(*) The "Sadovod" marketplace is simply a large indoor marketplace in the south-eastern administrative territory of Moscow, which has existed since the early 1990s. 20th century on the interior side of 14 km of Moscow bypass and adjacent Wierchniej Polia street, covering an area of over 40 hectares
The owners of the fair are Zarach Iliyev and God Nisanov, the co-owners of the Cherkyz Market(**)
(**) Zarach Iliyev and God (Lew) Nisanov (both supposedly Azerbaijani nationalities, but in fact they belong to the alleged “mountain, Caucasian Jews”, are business partners, according to Forbes of June 2025 their assets are estimated at USD 4.2 billion. (Dzen.ru -PZ)
Zarach Iliyev is known as the president of the Board of Directors of Wysota S.A. and co-owner of the Kiev Płoszczad group. Together with Nisanov, they deal with commercial properties in Moscow, managing the “European” buying centre, the Radisson Royal Ukraine hotel, the “Sadovod” buying centre and the Food City buying centre. (Dzen.ru-PZ)
In May 2025, it became known that a group of Ilijew and Nisanov companies had bought a “Liublinskoy Polie” buying centre with an estimated value of about 2 billion rubles. besides in 2025, they acquired an exclusive “Wriemien God” buying centre in the west of Moscow and became investors in the task at the RWPG building in Nowy Arbat. (Dzen.ru -PZ)
In 2024, God Nisanow ranked 50th in the Forbes ranking of Russian billionaires (net asset value 2.9 billion USD), Zarach Iliyev was 2 positions higher with a net value of USD 3.3 billion.
more: Iliev Zarach Binsionovich
Iliev Zarach Binsionovich and Nisanov God Siemenovich: a sweet pair of mountain criminals
https://kgrant.ru/lev-nisanov-kak-zarabotali-sostoyanie-god-nisanov-i-zarah/
(choice, footnotes and crowds. PZ)
