Contrary to what can be heard from various sides, the consent to transfer the F-16 is not a decision that will let Ukraine to gain an advantage on the battlefield in the close future. Rather, we treat it as an component of the puzzle, in which the US prepares for different options for developments.
On the 1 hand, Americans are trying to usage all available instruments to get Ukraine and Russia to start peace negotiations. On the another hand, in Washington and another western capitals, the script of the long war is increasingly believed to be more likely.
And this requires a somewhat different approach to Kiev's support. In the context of talks about military aid, we besides have a game to increase the influence of the countries of the "old" Union (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK) on the further destiny of the conflict and Ukraine itself.
Change of the time horizon for Ukraine's support
So far, with the organization of further military support packages, The US considered the short-term horizon of events. At first, it came down to delivering Ukraine tools to enable her to last the first strike and prepare the country for partisan combat.
In the next phase of the war, the precedence became to prevent the Russians from breaking the defensive lines, e.g. due to shortages of artillery ammunition on the side of Ukraine. For respective months, the Americans and their allies have been focused on preparations for Kiev's counteroffensive.
Recent G7 summit to which he was invited also W. Zelenski, announces However,desire moveda lever the another way “The West begins to look at Ukraine not in a fewer months, but in a fewer years.
The United States is so seeking to shift greater work for Kiev's support to Europe. On the another hand, the states of the “old Union” are beginning to accept this state of affairs, but would like to play as much as possible for themselves.
The most striking example of this is most likely the evolution of the attitude of Germany, which, from the State of delaying the supply of arms, are now trying to present themselves as a European leader in support of Ukraine...The question is only, what will be the price for this return in Berlin's policy?
Do not be deceived about it – despite various declarations, the West would like to end the war as shortly as possible. But first things first. Let's start with the military aspect of the eF transfer decision.
Will we see the F-16 on the front soon?
Reading any media reports may give the impression that the F-16 could appear on the front in about 4-6 months. However, in our opinion, the decision to transfer Ukraine to aircraft will not affect the course of the conflict beyond the east border in the close future. Why?
Firstly, the integration of F-16 into the Ukrainian army will take at least a twelve months or even respective years. After a fewer months of training, the Ukrainian pilot will be able to fly to F-16 from A to B and execute simple missions in a controlled environment.
It will not be a danger to itself, but on mission combat will be able to execute the role at most winger. Simplifying: the pilot after specified a “turbokurs” will be the equivalent of a private after a good, but shortened training.
And specified men should not be sent to conflict alone. They are exposed to fast death in the event of a possible clash with the opponent. There is besides another question: will Ukrainian eFy operate alone or in groups?
Because only 4 of these planes together are a serious weapon. And if so, who will command the pilot after the "turbokurs" in the air? This function requires at least Annualrodtraining.
Moreover, after completing the basic course, the pilot must additionally undergo the booting process within the squadron. In order to accomplish combat readiness as a whole, it takes at least a twelve months from the start of training of the first pilots.
However, specified a squadron will not be able to take advantage of all the capabilities offered by the F-16 aircraft. Its main asset is multitasking. However, further months of training are needed to take real shape, during which squadron capabilities will be expanded.
It's not adequate just to train the pilots
In addition, it besides takes time to make the infrastructure needed to operate F-16 on the ground. It is for this reason, among others, that various repair centres supporting Ukrainian war effort are sometimes located in another countries, not in Ukraine. Their creation from scratch would just take besides long.
At the same time, we remind you that a damaged aircraft cannot be transported as easy as a tank from 1 country to another. Therefore, Ukraine awaits months of hard work, consisting in preparing airports and infrastructure essential to operate F-16.
In the context of the transfer of Ukraine aircraft, 1 must not forget the particularity of the war in Ukraine. The individual theatres of action are filled with air defence systems. This causes Ukrainian Pilots are forced to fly at low altitudesto avoid excessive hazard of shooting down.
This represents a serious regulation on the possible usage of F-16 to carry out many crucial tasks from the position of Ukraine. The function of "wunderwaffe", which could actually change the image of the battlefield in the short term, could only be met by 5th generation aircraft squadrons.
To date, given that clashes happen frequently in urban areas, Iaeration plays a limited function in Ukraine's conflict.
Let us remember the economical aspects of Ukraine's support. The fighter planes are one of the most costly weapons. Costs and logistics of F-16 were 1 of the main reasons that The process of modernising Iraqi aviation has failed.
An earlier transfer of aircraft from Ukraine would thus consume a disproportionately large proportion of the funds approved by the American legislature to support a military ally. And according to what we wrote above, the short-wave effects of this decision would be alternatively poor.
Consent to deliver Ukraine F-16, it only starts to make sense if we take into account the long-term horizon of the US, the political aspects of the war with Russia, and the difference of interests between Ukraine and many Western countries.
Delivery of aircraft is expected to get Ukraine and Russia to talk
In our opinion, the "green light" for aircraft supplies is simply a signal that the US is already reasoning about what will happen after the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And here we truly have 2 options. Either we can get both sides to talk, or we have a long war ahead of us.
From the position of the US and many Western countries, the first option is preferred. That's why the Americans usage the stick and carrot method to get Russia and Ukraine to have peace talks.
F-16 is so a “carrot” for Kiev. The signal that after the ceasefire, the US is ready to invest immense sums in reforming Ukrainian armed forces so that they are able to deter Russia.
Fear of re-attacking Moscow is the main origin preventing Kiev from negotiating. W. Zelenski realises that if now he does not defeat W. Putin in a fight, he will surely return to aggression in the future. So any truce would be pointless.
The agreement to supply aircraft is simply a major political success of the president of Ukraine. He and his organization can usage it for interior use. Kiev takes into account that it would not be able to finance the air modernisation programme on its own.
For Russia, the F-16 is simply a "kij", as it signals Washington's readiness to throw Moscow out of the hands of 1 of its main advantages. It is the ability to hit targets, located in Ukraine from a long distance and at a negligible hazard of vulnerability to the victim's response.
F-16 is the beginning of building Russia's ability to deter Russia in the future
Note, however, that so far there are no specifics about who, erstwhile and how many eFs will hand over Ukraine. This is, therefore, primarily a decision aimed at the future. It is intended to strengthen Ukrainian deterrence capabilities.
Fourth generation aircraft will let the fight against Russian aviation (on the ground and in the air) which tries to dispel targets in Ukraine from a long distance. The F-16 will besides supply fire support to land troops and relieve Ukrainian air defence systems.
The second endure from chronic shortages of ammunition. The mastery of all these abilities will require time from Ukraine and in itself will not be a "gamechanger". However, it will importantly change the arrangement of forces and complicate Russia's future offensive activities.
Furthermore, the F-16 supplies are part of the expected "re-arrangement" of the Ukrainian armed forces to the Natat standards. But if the Americans wanted an immediate effect on the battlefield, they could now deliver Ukraine has long-range precision weapons.
It seems that its lack, and the advantage of Russians in the air are the 2 most crucial factors limiting the possible scale and effectiveness of Ukrainian counteroffensive. Both Kiev and Moscow are aware of this.
In our opinion, in both capitals, decisions on the transfer of precision weapons and modern aircraft are considered to reflect the actual intentions of the West. If they hit the front, it will mean that the U.S. is serious about the full disengaging of Russians from Ukraine.
Will there be, or won't there be, this Ukrainian counter-offence?
The possible success of U.S. efforts to start talks by Russia and Ukraine on ceasefire will depend mostly on the effects of the Kiev counteroffensive. It will be a test of Moscow's ability to keep occupied territories.
W. Zelenski is aware that in many countries people have been asking themselves 1 question for weeks: where is this controversy? That's why if we were him... we'd never declare her a failure in the information dimension due to the fact that it could cost quite a few Kiev.
Look at it this way: if the Ukrainians begin to win on the battlefield, then so many “wise heads” will say: “The confrontation has begun! They did a large occupation keeping everything quiet. And we knew what was going on, but we didn't want to talk due to the fact that you know...”
However, if Kiev does not make crucial advancement on the battlefield, regardless of its real intentions, W. Zelenski will be able to say, “The West gave besides small weapons, so we could not start the strike.” And a number of observers will besides choice up this narrative.
From the position of Ukraine, the worst would be the situation in which W. Zelenski announces the start of the strike, and its effects are slow and/or limited. Then there would be the alleged "ass" and there would be force from different sides that if the Ukrainians are incapable to win, then we must negotiate.
This is what a "infowar" looks like in its fullness. With the “heart and mind” of Kiev on his side, he can manipulate the discussion, imposing to any degree the explanation of events on the battlefield at his discretion.
By the way, it is worth noting that he has “eggs” Konrad Music, due to the fact that he carefully analyses what he sees and puts thesis on the basis of the methodology adopted earlier, alternatively than matching the description of reality with what people want to hear. And as early as mid-May, he felt that Ukrainian counteroffensive had begun.
Long war?
Regardless of public perception, after the end of Ukrainian counteroffensive, Western states will most likely effort to convince Moscow and Kiev to talk. However, this may be difficult. Especially if the next fewer months don't bring judgement on the battlefield.
Ukrainian society will proceed to request the complete recovery of the lost territories, including Crimea. Russia, on the another hand, will anticipate a long-term “exhaust” of its opponent.
In specified a scenario, the aid of the West would yet weaken, and Ukrainian society would be tired of war. According to the Kremlin, sooner or later, there would besides be a organization in Ukraine willing to enter into a truce on terms favourable to Russia.
From this perspective, the F-16 supply agreement is intended to make W aware. Putin, that it would be hard for him to take the U.S. for a "wait". The transportation of aircraft is simply a long-term support which, in addition, becomes increasingly dangerous for the Russian army.
However, Americans are besides beginning to let the anticipation of a long war beyond the east border of Poland. From their perspective, it becomes crucial to shift the top burden of Ukraine's support to allies.
Notice, then, that the F-16 is to be administered first by the British and Dutch. In turn, aircraft will come mainly from the resources of the ‘old’ countries of the Union alternatively than the US. However, there was no specificity as to the dates and number of machines transferred.
These 2 issues will most likely depend on further developments in Ukraine, and negotiations between the United States and their allies. In addition, countries specified as Germany and Finland will shortly be re-arranged into F-35 aircraft.
This will let them to join Norway, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, which now seem to be the most determined to transfer Ukraine to F-16.
An interesting function in this arrangement is played by the UK, which wants to be the “leader” of the coalition for the transfer Ukraine airplanes, alone... However, without having an F-16, the British propose to open a training centre for Ukrainian pilots.
Is the West of Europe back in the game?
This process can be a sign of the gradual transfer of the burden of Ukraine's future support from the countries of Central east Europe to the western countries. The function of Warsaw can so be reduced to an crucial role, but not a crucial partner of Kiev.
Especially as W. Zelenski's perception is inactive London, Paris, Berlin and Rome have the top diplomatic and economical force that can influence Ukraine's form and position after the war. Therefore, in the next text we will tell you about whether Poland has utilized its "time" in relations with its neighbour.
If you like this article and believe what we do, you can besides purchase access to weekly columns where we comment on current events.
It is thanks to the aid of subscribers that we can act and develop. And don't forget to subscribe to ours podcast – The planet of Uniform Eyes on Youtube.
You can besides talk to us through:
- Profile on Twitter And Instagram.
- By email: [email protected].
