After the Russian troops were withdrawn to the left bank of Dnieper in the Chersonia area, the question was: what will happen next? The simplest way to answer this question is first to make clear what will surely not happen in the foreseeable future: to resume peace negotiations and to close the conflict quickly.
Last weekend Vladimir Putin He ordered the demobilisation of students from the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic who were called up for military service before the authoritative entry of these territories into Russia. It is not only an act of goodwill towards students of Donbast universities and the introduction of a national norm in the region that students are not mobilized. This is besides a very crucial symbolic motion by the Kremlin: nothing extraordinary or more catastrophic is happening. There is only a method correction of a peculiar military operation (SOW).
But authoritative Kiev and any forces in the West have their own imagination of the situation: Moscow is not very successful. It is worth pressing a small more, and even what seemed unthinkable since 2014, will be possible: the return of Crimea. These 2 visions are fundamentally contradictory. They can't be reconciled, put together. 1 of these visions should show superiority. And that can only happen on the battlefield.
Recently, in my spare time, I have dealt with entertaining (and in fact rather depressing) historical and arithmetic calculations. Almost 10 months have passed since the start of the war in February that year. Let us add 9 months to the date of the outbreak of planet War I in August 1914 and we will receive May 1915. By comparison: planet War I ended only in November 1918.
Let us add 9 months after the outbreak of planet War II in September 1939 and receive June 1940. I will not be reminded erstwhile precisely planet War II ended. The date on May 9, 1945 is already engraved in the border in the memory of each of us.
These historical studies do not show that the conflict in Ukraine will gotta proceed for 4 or six years. The future is not a mechanical repetition of the past. These memories of Europe's past only let us to look at the current political minute (and besides military-strategic moment) in perspective.
Architect of the triumph of Prussia over France during the war 1870-1871, Field Marshal Helmut von Moltke, he erstwhile said, "No plan can withstand the first clash with the enemy." Let's not go in circles. present this is primarily about the Russian side of the conflict. I am not certain that before the start of the SOW, individual from this narrow ellipse of Russian management who participated in the decision to start it could imagine Zelenski playing specified a “star” function as “the triumphant enters the retrieved Chersonia”.
However, I would like to remind you that during planet War I the Germans managed to accomplish crucial military victories almost until the surrender. Real military action is not a computer game in which the enemy is programmed to a minimum level of resistance. In real wartime, surprises are inevitable. Or, let's put it this way, the only real surprise in a war is the deficiency of surprises.
Now let's talk about what we can expect. There are presently many different speculations in the Russian media space about a possible "agreement" with Ukraine and the West. I do not even see the minimum possible conditions for specified an "agreement". The Kremlin has the chance and desire to proceed its EWS. The army was preserved, among others, thanks to unpleasant PR decisions on Chersonia. The economy functions better than the most optimistic forecasts that could be heard a fewer days or even weeks after the outbreak of war. The interior political situation is under control.
But what am I talking about? Even if things were much worse in all the above areas, there would inactive be no conclusion of the SOW. From the point of view of the highest Russian leadership, the conflict in Ukraine is absolutely existential for the Russian Federation. Failure simply cannot be considered. If something doesn't work, you can change tactics, you can pour in an extra amount of resources – but the final strategy will inactive stay unchanged.
Now let's effort to look at the situation with the eyes of the authoritative Kiev and Western opponents of Moscow. What conclusion can all these forces come to after Cherson? Only to this: Armed Forces pumping strategy Ukraine's modern NATO weapon works better than expected. This strategy must be "extended and deepened". And that's what's happening.
Early this week, citing a leak in The Wall Street Journal, many quoted the alleged words of the United States President's Assistant for National safety Jake Sullivanthat Kiev must think about "realistic requirements and priorities" in negotiations with Russia.
Unfortunately, the spirit present is much better suited by others, this time Sullivan’s rather authoritative words: “If Ukraine decides to halt fighting, it will be the end of it!”
The excited West encourages the authoritative Kiev in all possible ways to "not stop" – despite the fact that the Ukrainian authorities do not even request to be advised. The way Zelenski now understands "realistic demands and priorities" in negotiations with Russia describes perfectly the motto of the Paris student riot of May 1968: "Be realistic – request impossible!"
So we have returned to the starting point: in Ukraine – and throughout Eurasia – there is no area for peaceful coexistence of 2 "concepts of realism". 1 of these "concepts" should destruct the another by force. All indicates that 2023 will be no little hard and worrying than 2022.
Mikhail Rostowski
Photo: izvestia.ru
For: ‘Moskov Komsomolec’
