What awaits the gold in 2024? Expert forecasts from PKO BP

2024 brings crucial changes in the abroad exchange marketplace and in peculiar in the exchange rate gold. The past fewer weeks have been filled with fluctuations in courses, with a clear strengthening of the Polish currency against dollar and euro. Mirosław Budzicki, a financial marketplace strategist in PKO BPHe spoke on current trends and forecasts for the coming months. What awaits us in the future? Will the gold hold its course? Here are the details.

Gold on the wave of fortifications

In fresh months we have seen a crucial improvement in course gold the main currencies, in peculiar euro and dollar. The euro rate in the first days of 2024 fell to PLN 4,21which is the lowest level since 2018. In turn, the dollar, which has for a long time strengthened on the market, now shows no specified trends, and its course stabilizes at lower levels.

Mirosław Budzicki notes that the current situation resembles late October and November 2023When the dollar stopped strengthening, and the marketplace stabilised. According to expert forecasts, in the first 4th of 2024 the course euro is to stabilize in the area $1.05.

Change in US Policy and Dollar

It is worth noting the impact of United States policy on the course dollar. As a consequence of the changing political situation after the election Donald Trump to the President, the financial marketplace has reacted to an increase in expectations to further strengthen the American currency. However, better than expected inflation data and worse indicators in the real economy have reduced these expectations and increased hope for interest rate reduction in the United States.

Budzicki indicates that Trump's election announcements can be implemented in a more subdued form, reducing the impact of these decisions on the dollar rate. It is expected that the US administration will not have as much impact on the dollar rate as initially expected.

Euro and dollar rates: are we going to be equalized?

At the end of 2002 courses euro and dollar balanced, reaching equal value. However, experts point out that there are presently no indications that these 2 currencies could be rebalanced in the long term. Mirosław Budzicki predicts that the course will be shortly euro will stay around $1.05and further weakening of the American currency is possible in the second half of 2024.

Gold: the influence of geopolitics and the end of the war in Ukraine

Low course values euro may besides be related to the hope of ending wars in Ukraine. Experts note that the geopolitical situation, including events in Ukraine, affects the global currency market, including the gold exchange rate. However, gold, despite strengthening against another currencies, does not warrant a fall in the price of goods and services, as another economical factors are inactive changing, specified as inflation is production costs.

Mirosław Budzicki indicates that although the current course gold is beneficial, you cannot anticipate that prices in Poland They'll fall drastically. On the contrary, advanced production costs and the presence of inflation can inactive keep prices comparatively high, which will affect purchasing power Polish consumers.

Future projections: stabilisation or weakness?

Although the marketplace shows signs of stableness of the course gold, the experts foresee further currency fluctuations. In the first 4th of 2024 gold may keep its strengthening, but in the following months it cannot be ruled out further US currency weakness. Political decisions USA and further developments in the global marketplace will have a key impact on the dollar and euro.

Gold against another currencies

The Polish currency, despite fresh reinforcements, has not yet reached the perfect level, which would supply a crucial price simplification in Poland. Gold remains delicate to policy changes of the European Central Bank and the economical situation in the euro area. Therefore, experts propose that at least gold course shows affirmative trends, his future remains uncertainand course fluctuations are inevitable.

In 2024 gold may proceed its growth trend, but it is not certain that this strengthening will last longer. The exchange rate is affected by both Global factorsand Economic policy in Poland and the world. Euro rate in 2024 may stabilise at $1.05, but further improvement of the geopolitical situation and political decisions will have a key impact on the future of the Polish currency.