According to a survey carried out by CBOS, if the second circular of elections were to be attended by Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, the candidate for the KO would be given more support.
New CBOS poll: Trzaskowski vs. Nawrocki and Mentzen – who will win?
52% would vote for Trzaskowski. surveyed, while Nawrocki, representing the Law and Justice, could number for 44 percent. It is worth noting that Trzaskowski could number on almost 100% support from his 1st circular voters – as many as 99 percent of the voters who voted for him in the first circular would vote for him in the second.
In addition, Trzaskowski would gain the support of 71% of the voters of Adrian Zandberg from the organization Together and 68% of the voters of Szymon Holownia from the 3rd Way. Interestingly, besides 13 percent of the voters of Sławomir Mentzen from I circular would support Trzaskowski in II round.
In turn, Karol Nawrocki, a candidate for the Law and Justice, could number on the support of 96 percent of his 1st-round voters, as well as 60 percent of Mentzen's supporters, 11 percent of Zandberg's voters and 8 percent of those voting for Hołownia.
Trzaskowski vs Mentzen – fierce competition
The second option of the survey foresees that Rafał Trzaskowski and Sławomir Mentzen would enter the II tour. In this configuration the consequence would be very akin – Trzaskowski would win 51 percent of the votes, and Mentzen would win 47 percent. Trzaskowski could besides number on almost full support from his 1st circular voters – 99 percent of those voting for him in the first circular would one more time vote for the KO candidate. In addition, Trzaskowski could number on 80 percent of the votes of Zandberg voters and 74 percent of Holowna voters.
On the another hand, Sławomir Mentzen, who represents the Confederate, could number on the support of 95 percent of his voters from I tour. Importantly, 77% of the voters of Karol Nawrocki would besides vote for Mentzen, which could importantly affect the consequence in the second round.
Analysis of results – who has a better chance?
The results of this survey show a clear advantage for Rafał Trzaskowski in both scenarios analysed. In the event of a clash with Karol Nawrocki Trzaskowski wins 52 percent and Nawrocki 44 percent. In the confrontation with Mentzen the difference is smaller – the advantage of Trzaskowski is 4 percent points.
It should be noted that Trzaskowski receives very strong support among voters of another parties – especially Together and 3rd Way. Although its consequence in the clash with Nawrocki is clearer, in Mentzen's case competition is more equal. Mentzen, on the another hand, enjoys strong support from his constituents, as well as gaining a large part of the vote from the Nawrocki electorate, which makes his consequence somewhat stronger than in the clash with Nawrocki.
The survey was conducted before presidential debates that could affect voters' preferences.
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