W Washington is expected to sign an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which, according to authoritative communications, is to "open a fresh chapter" in the relations between both countries. The host of the event is the Donald Trump administration, presenting the initiative as a breakthrough in peace building in the South Caucasus. However, more and more voices, especially in Armenia itself, inform that under the appearance of peaceful slogans there is simply a script threatening Armenian sovereignty.
On a popular fanpage “Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն” a informing has been given, which has become a point of mention in the public discussion:
[Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն] "Today, and possibly tomorrow, an agreement is to be signed in Washington, D.C., between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which, according to authoritative communications, is to open a fresh chapter in the relations of both countries. However, more and more votes in Armenia inform that under the slogans of the ‘room’ there is simply a script in which Erevan surrenders further bargaining cards without real guarantees in return.”
The key point of the negotiations is the plan of the TRIPP transport and energy corridor, designed to connect Azerbaijan with the exclave of Nachichewan by Armenian Sjunik. There are conflicting versions in the working documents: 1 speaks of 99-year lease to an American consortium, another speaks of retaining the full jurisdiction of Armenia. The ambiguity of these provisions in itself raises concerns that Armenia may in practice lose control of part of its territory.
[Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն] "The deficiency of explicit records raises concerns that Armenia may actually lose control of a fragment of its territory."
Even more serious reservations concern the deficiency of provisions on fundamental safety and justice issues. The task does not mention the return of the exiled Armenians from Arcach, the release of political and civilian prisoners held in Baku, or the mechanisms of Azerbaijan's work for war crimes. At the same time, the US package provides for the abolition of restrictions on defence cooperation with Azerbaijan, which will strengthen its military position.
[Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն] "There is no mention of the return of the exiled Armenians, the release of prisoners, or mechanisms to hold Azerbaijan accountable. Instead, the abolition of US defence cooperation restrictions with Baku.”
It is besides controversial to request Azerbaijan to formally dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group – a media platform in which France played an crucial role. The exclusion of Paris from the trial will deprive Armenia of 1 of the fewer Western allies able to balance Baku's influence.
[Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն] "Exempting France from the process means weakening balance and further shifting the centre of gravity to Azerbaijan."
Armenian experts stress that the biggest dispute in months is the question of the alleged corridor through Sjunik. The alternate proposal of Erwanie – "Cross of Peace" – implies the common unlocking of border crossings under full state control on both sides. However, if a paper is signed in Washington giving Azerbaijan privileged access without real reciprocity and safeguards, this could be a step towards a permanent failure for Armenia.
[Armenia in Polish – Հայաստանը լեհերեն] "If the paper favours 1 corridor for Azerbaijan without security, it will be another step towards the disaster of Armenia."
In the current form, the task raises more questions than answers. A area based on the elimination of balancing actors and without hard guarantees may prove impermanent, and the price Armenia will pay may be the highest in decades – and irreversible.
