Washington Declaration: closer to peace in the South Caucasus

On 8 August, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan – Prime Minister Nikol Paszynian and president Ilham Alijew – and US president Donald Trump signed a peace declaration in Washington. The paper mentions the request to proceed to work towards a future peace agreement that normalises Armenian-Azerbejjan relations, and the willingness to unlock communication routes, including a way linking the essential part of Azerbaijan with the Nachiwan exclave across Armenia. This road is to operate as part of a task called TRIPP – Trump way for global Peace and Prosperity (The Trump way for global Peace and Prosperity) and the rules for its usage are to be established in cooperation between Armenia and the US with the possible engagement of 3rd parties.

The declaration was very well received by Turkey and the EU, which expressed their willingness to participate in regional transport initiatives, while with a reserve by Russia and Iran. Moscow and Tehran have assessed the paper as a step closer to peace in the region, but they stress that the stableness of the South Caucasus requires cooperation from its neighbours (Iran, Russia and Turkey) and the presence of another actors (as a guess: USA) may pose threats to regional security.

The Washington Tripartite Declaration enhances assurance between the parties to the conflict and brings the possible of a peace agreement closer – although there is not yet a circumstantial deadline. The announced participation of the U.S. operator of the Nachichewan way by Armenia (the alleged Zangezuri Corridor) can reconcile Baku's expectations with Erwania's interests: transit rules were 1 of the most crucial points of dispute between the 2 countries. The acceptance of the paper is simply a symbolic defeat of Russia, which for many years claimed to be the main intermediary in the Armenian-Azerbian conflict – and was considered such.

Comment

• The signed declaration is not equivalent to a peace agreementthat would end the late 1980s. 20th century conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In 2020–2023, Azerbaijan regained control of the separatist Mountain Karabach, in practice forcing the local Armenian population to emigrate. present the dispute concerns, among others, the delimitation of the common border and rules of Azerbaijani transit to Nachichewan. On 13 March this year, the parties announced the completion of the settlement of the text of the peace agreement – its content was revealed on 11 August (see Annex), and the current declaration confirms the will to conclude it and brings it closer (the diplomats of both states initialled the text of the agreement in Washington). As a condition for signing it, Baku puts forward a revision of the preamble to the Constitution of Armenia, which mentions Mountain Karabach, which takes as a question of its territorial integrity. Yerevan does not exclude amendments to the basic law, but indicates that this requires time and maintenance of procedures (including referendums). Armenia and Azerbaijan have not established and yet have no diplomatic relations with each other.
• The Washington Declaration reduces Russia's function in the region. Moscow has been the main intermediary in Armenia's conflict with Azerbaijan for many years – co-chaired the Minsk OSCE Group established to settle this dispute (signing the paper preceded both parties' appeal to the OSCE to resolve it), while taking stand-alone initiatives in this area (under its aegis the Armenian-Azerbejan War ended in autumn 2020). Irrespective of the formal participation of Yerevan in Russia-controlled integration formats (Euro-Asian economical Union, Organisation of the Collective safety Agreement – de facto Yerevans are not actively involved) “Armenia is already positioned as a country in EU orbit.
• The definition of a draft corridor between the essential territory of Azerbaijan and the Nazi Exclave as the Trump way has a propaganda dimension (Aliyev and Paszynian announced that they nominate the president of the United States for the Nobel Peace Prize), however, participation in this task of a third-country entity (US) may reconcile Erwania's interests (control over its territory and integrity of borders) with Baku's expectations (effective transit of people and goods). In this context, it is not amazing votum separatum Moscow and Tehran – both capitals expressed support for the declaration, although they reserved that without engagement of regional neighbours lasting peace would not be possible. However, these doubts seem to have an ambitious dimension in particular.

Annex. Main points of the Armenian-Aserbian Agreement (agreed in March and initialled on 11 August)

The parties agreed to establish diplomatic relations and confirmed that the borders between the republics of the erstwhile USSR became global borders of individual independent states and were recognised as specified by the global community. They have undertaken to respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity and integrity of the global borders of the another party.

Armenia and Azerbaijan state that they have no territorial claims against each another and will not study specified claims in the future. They besides declared that they would not take any action to break up or breach, in full or in part, the territorial integrity or political unity of the another party, including those which would consist in planning, preparing and supporting specified action or encouraging it. In addition, it was agreed that negotiations on delimitation and demarcation of the border would begin, resulting in a suitable agreement in the future.

In bilateral relations, Baku and Yerevan will refrain from interfering with interior affairs and from utilizing force or threatening to usage force against territorial integrity or independency of the another party.