In polls, a draw, at Polymarket favorite. Who is to be trusted?

Zdjęcie: Pomimo wyrównanych sondaży, Rafał Trzaskowski wciąż utrzymuje wyraźną przewagę nad Karolem Nawrockim w kursach na Polymarket / dziennik.pl / Konrad Żelazowski


As conventional methods of public opinion polling increasingly meet the limits of their effectiveness, predictive markets gain in importance as a dynamic tool for measuring moods before elections. Recently, the Polymarket platform has gained its top popularity. In contrast to conventional polls, the participants are more curious in carefully assessing the probability of different scenarios. So how do we realize bookmakers' predictions of the presidential elections in Poland? And is it possible that markets are just wrong?