‘All the whims of Putin’
Maria Tsiptsiura, Onet: Conversations in London have been called critical, decisive. On the basis of what we see today, it's hard to call them that. What happened and where did everything go wrong?
Petro Oleszczuk: I think it was the minute Witkoff brought all Putin's whims from Russia, and the United States decided to trust on them in formulating their position. And they decided to do so due to the fact that Trump wants to scope an agreement as shortly as possible so that he can announce that he fulfilled his promise to end the war before the end of 100 days of office. As a result, the US had no better thought than accepting all Putin's demands and presenting them as their own plan to end the war. This information got to the media and triggered a very strong reaction in Ukraine and Europe. In response, Rubio cancelled his visit due to the fact that it became apparent that no agreement could be reached. But the main problem is at the heart of the case.
What do you mean?
Because Trump wanted to scope an agreement quickly, he was drawn into the manipulation of Russia. To negociate with Russia, he sent an absolutely incompetent Witkoff, who brought a completely unprofitable plan. The United States tried to force him through pressure. As a result, this has led to what we see today.
Let us remind a bit of the main assumptions of this plan, which have been discussed so dynamically in the media in fresh days. It was even reported that Russia had agreed to return the occupied territories.
No, it's not like that. It was only a message that Russia may not insist on returning the Kherson, Zaporosian, Lugansk and Donetsk circuits within their administrative limits. This is Putin's generosity. In return, however, he wants Ukraine to declare Crimea Russian, to quit NATO, to hand over Zaporozhye atomic power plant to the United States for unknown reasons, and the United States could not give Ukraine any safety guarantees. Ukraine has been promised any funds to rebuild, but it is not clear who will supply them. It is clear, however, that it will not be the USA or Russia. In return, sanctions against Russia will be completely abolished. In this way they are trying to abandon not only Ukraine but besides Europe. Eventually, they want to impose all their duties on her without any rights.
"This position is clear"
Why are these requirements completely unacceptable to Ukraine? What's the main problem? What could Ukraine agree to?
The compromise was agreed a period ago between Ukrainian and American delegations. The importance of the compromise is as follows: first ceasefire and then negotiations to address all issues politically. This would de facto mean that Russia would control all occupied territories for an indefinite period, while not being able to interfere in Ukraine's interior political affairs. Of course, Kiev cannot decide to join NATO, that is what the United States and another members of the Alliance decide. But at the same time Ukraine does not quit its way to the EU and NATO. This position has been agreed and it is rather clear.
So what's the problem?
On the fact that Ukraine agreed on a position with the United States and it was allegedly the authoritative position of America. Now Witkoff has gone to Russia, the position has changed, and it is not known how many times he can change. As it turned out, the United States has no position. It keeps changing, depending on what Putin wants.
Putin's trap. “He never said that his ambitions were limited to Crimea”
Many experts call the request to recognise Crimea as a Russian trap. Why?
The answer is simple — the Ukrainian constitution forbids it. The revision of the constitution is not easy, requires the approval of the final result in the referendum. I don't think it's hard to foretell his results. The Russian dictator utilized the fact that Witkoff was incompetent. He gave him the idea: let us consider Crimea Russian, especially since Russia has been controlling it for a long time and will never be returned to Ukraine. And happy Witkoff flew to the US to announce his fantastic success. But the point is that Putin changes the deal in specified a way as to make it immediately unrealistic.
Let's fantasize. Theoretically, the U.S. pushed this demand, and Ukrainian leaders sanctioned it. In practice, this will be impossible to implement. And that will give Putin the chance to start the war again in the future. The abolition of sanctions against Russia will reconstruct its military potential. They will wait for Ukraine to be able to implement this agreement. And then Russia will attack again, utilizing it as an excuse for fresh aggression. Putin will say that Ukraine was to surrender the Crimea, but it has not officially done so, so it is essential to launch an operation of "forcement of peace", and Russia will resume its war effort at a convenient time. And that's the point of this full request — Putin never said that his ambition was limited to Crimea. He's not going to quit the occupied territories. Crimea is just a way to replace contracts so that they can be easy broken afterwards.
How do you think events will continue?
Everything will depend on the European partners of Ukraine and their position — whether they effort to compromise with the US, whether they propose alternate scenarios or declare support for Ukraine. It is clear that Europe is now more responsible. Everyone already understands that the US will not support Ukraine, this is the primary position of Trump administration. They want to be friends with Russia, they don't want to be friends with Ukraine.
"Europe has always looked at the US position"
The United States is threatening to retreat from negotiations. Do you think they can do that?
The withdrawal of the US from negotiations will not fundamentally change anything for Ukraine. I think that they will surely retreat from negotiations, prepare public opinion for that. Trump published a post a long time ago that it was Biden's war. The United States has officially declared that if there is no progress, they will retreat from the negotiations. The question is what's next. Of course, the U.S. must retreat from talks to let reset to begin in relations with Russia. The withdrawal from talks is simply a formal reason to say that they wanted to solve the situation, offered a large plan, and Ukraine disagreed, so the US cannot do anything about it, so they must be friends with Russia and abolish sanctions against Russia. This is most likely the next stage. And the Russians will be pleased to manipulate Americans in this area.
Imagine the U.S. withdrawing from negotiations and restoring relations with Russia. What can Europe's reaction be?
There are many factors due to the fact that Europe is not homogeneous. Many European leaders are seeking separate negotiations with the US. Therefore, there are many options in this scenario. The Russians can straight start threatening Europe with military aggression. For a reason, the subject of the Suwałki Corridor has become so active recently. Russia can besides effort to force Europe to retreat support for Ukraine through direct military intimidation. The United States will in turn exert economical pressure. It is hard to say whether Europe will be able to defy this pressure. Much will depend on the preservation of the fresh German government, due to the fact that in practice we know nothing about it. It is besides unclear how Merz will act as Chancellor. He may become the leader that Europe has long been waiting for. Or on the contrary, he cannot cope with these challenges. There are many variables. But possibly Europe has all chance to play its own game in this situation and to keep the defence of Ukraine and itself. The only problem is that Europe has always looked at the U.S. position, it has always lacked political will. If they can overcome their intellectual dependence on the US, I see no problem in supporting Ukraine. After all, Ukraine 2025 is not the same Ukraine that was in 2022. And present Ukraine is full capable of stopping Russian aggression. However, we request political will to say no to the US at a crucial moment. And we do not know that Europeans will be able to do so.
In my opinion, all day we decision distant from a possible truce and peace. I can't believe we're gonna be able to accomplish at least a ceasefire this year. And you?
I don't believe that either. Objectively speaking, the Russians besides have major problems and Putin could theoretically be willing to agree to any more or little acceptable conditions. But destiny gave him Trump and now he wants to make the best of it. Putin thinks there's no request to make concessions, since the U.S. is on his side now. On the contrary, he must exert pressure. That's why Trump's peace initiatives distance peace. People frequently say Trump is any kind of influence agent. However, I think Trump is simply an incompetent policy surrounded by incompetent politicians. And he's trying to do politics the way he did business. And judging by the number of bankruptcies, he wasn't always successful in business.
