Visit of the president of the United arabian Emirates to Moscow

The president of the Emirates is due to arrive in Moscow next day – Mohamed bin Zayed. He is expected to offer mediation between Russia and the US. However, the timing of the visit is unfortunate – last week OPEC+ decided to reduce oil production, and the US started accusing the KSA and the UAE of supporting Russia.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the UAE's attitude, like neighbouring Saudi Arabia, has been rather complicated. The Emirates did not condemn the invasion and despite the pressures of the US they advocated further cooperation with Russia under OPEC+. The United arabian Emirates did not join the sanctions either.

On 17 March, the abroad Minister Abdullah bin Zayed (president's brother) visited Moscow, where he was accepted by Lavrow. Already then, the Emirates offered their mediation to the Russians, but the main subject of the visit was the transportation of Russian and Ukrainian food to the mediate East markets.

Tomorrow the president of the UAE is expected to renew his proposal for mediation between Russia and Ukraine (relatively Russia and the USA). Mohammed bin Zayed knows Putin and has held many meetings with him, and since 2015 (Russian intervention in Syria) cooperation between Russia and the UAE has been constantly expanding.

The actions of the mediate East countries for the deescalation of the war in Ukraine are not said much in the media, but they played an crucial role, for example, in freeing Azowstal defenders (Turkey) or Western volunteers serving in the Ukrainian Army (KSA).

According to the Emirati sources, the president of the United arabian Emirates is expected to propose to Putin next day that the KSA, Turkey and the UAE will work together to make a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

However, this initiative seems to be very negative in the US. Why?

A week ago OPEC+ (OPEC+Russia) decided to reduce oil extraction by 2 million barrels from November (in practice there will be about 1.1 million barrels on the market). In combination with price cap for Russian oil (G7's idea), this could mean large increases in fuel prices.

The Americans have adopted the OPEC+ decision very negatively. In July, Joe Biden was in KSA and asked the Sauds to increase oil production. But now OPEC+ is going in a completely different direction. As a result, members of Biden's administration accuse KSA and UAE of “supporting” Russia.

Even if Putin supports Mohammed bin Zayed's thought of mediation, it may turn out that the Americans will not take this offer “seriously” – especially seeing that the KSA and the UAE are trying to wage war in Ukraine for their own benefit.

Besides, it is not known whether this full MBZ mediation plan is not just a “smoky curtain” which is to explain to Western countries the visit of the president of the Emirates to Moscow, and in practice there will be completely different topics discussed – food supplies to the region and energy policy.